Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

Commodities

<ul><li>Orange juice futures hit an all-time high last week as citrus crops all across the US have been hammered by a series of hurricanes and the spread of citrus greening, an incurable disease spread by insects.</li><li>The vast majority of oranges produced in the US come from Florida, which has been hobbled by hurricanes and a cold snap, massively hampering supply.</li><li>Such headwinds are responsible for the supply shortage in oranges, which has driven up prices that will eventually filter through to consumers.</li></ul>

Orange juice futures hit an all-time high last week as citrus crops all across the US have been hammered by a series of hurricanes and the spread of citrus greening, an incurable disease spread by insects.The vast majority of oranges produced in the US come from Florida, which has been hobbled by hurricanes and a cold snap, massively hampering supply.Such headwinds are responsible for the supply shortage in oranges, which has driven up prices that will eventually filter through to consumers.

Traders Remain Neutral Commodities // Copper Loses as China Falls Apart

<ul><li>Cocoa Market Started Collapsing Run-ups in commodity markets tend to be slow but steady but meltdowns on the other hand fast and sharp - a bit comparable with equity markets but definitely more volatile.</li><li>Especially Parabolic advances, like the one in cocoa futures, often end with a sweeping reversal.</li><li>Fortunately, the soybean complex is one we covered intensively during this year.</li></ul>

Cocoa Market Started Collapsing Run-ups in commodity markets tend to be slow but steady but meltdowns on the other hand fast and sharp - a bit comparable with equity markets but definitely more volatile.Especially Parabolic advances, like the one in cocoa futures, often end with a sweeping reversal.Fortunately, the soybean complex is one we covered intensively during this year.

Cocoa Market Started Collapsing // Soybean Spreads crash down

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Recently the MOVE and 10 year yield 3m rolling correlation went back to its 2022 levels, so is it time for a cocktail of a rates volatility wrecking ball ala summer 2022 again?</li><li>Then just short the long end of the curve given the resilient US economy, BoJ’s YCC hikes and a procyclical fiscal policy in the US.</li><li>We see this scenario as one in which high duration generation Y &amp; Z assets get hammered and the boomer trade is en vogue.</li></ul>

Recently the MOVE and 10 year yield 3m rolling correlation went back to its 2022 levels, so is it time for a cocktail of a rates volatility wrecking ball ala summer 2022 again?Then just short the long end of the curve given the resilient US economy, BoJ’s YCC hikes and a procyclical fiscal policy in the US.We see this scenario as one in which high duration generation Y &amp; Z assets get hammered and the boomer trade is en vogue.

Commodity Watch: Alternatives to Betting Directly on the Curve

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

<ul><li>Hope you’re enjoying the weekend out there! Weekends provide the perfect opportunity to review the market’s performance over the past week – and this week has again been full of volatility with the CPI report released this Thursday along with bonds remaining indecisive about the future market direction.</li><li>The overall sentiment this week again has optimism written all over it with equity sentiment still hovering at 2021 highs on some of the short-term indicators, and GBP and EUR are continuing their positioning resilience, while commodity markets are starting to signal weaker demand again after a couple of weeks of strength.</li><li>Follow along as we dissect market sentiment and positioning data below.</li></ul>

Hope you’re enjoying the weekend out there! Weekends provide the perfect opportunity to review the market’s performance over the past week – and this week has again been full of volatility with the CPI report released this Thursday along with bonds remaining indecisive about the future market direction.The overall sentiment this week again has optimism written all over it with equity sentiment still hovering at 2021 highs on some of the short-term indicators, and GBP and EUR are continuing their positioning resilience, while commodity markets are starting to signal weaker demand again after a couple of weeks of strength.Follow along as we dissect market sentiment and positioning data below.

Positioning Watch – The Chinese Disappointment Is Written All over the Latest Positioning

Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>As we engage a pivotal juncture between DM rates approaching peak and China on the verge of descending into deflation, EM Macro is subject to converging pressures.</li><li>It is essential to embrace the diversity in the EM space here.</li><li>I have been advocating throughout the early spring that EM’s were ahead and would be the first rate-cutters in this cycle and the LatAm carry trade will likely take in water in the aftermath – while the rate cuts have largely aligned with my expectations (which preceded market pricing I might add), the punishment in foreign exchange has been harsher and quicker than I anticipated.</li></ul>

As we engage a pivotal juncture between DM rates approaching peak and China on the verge of descending into deflation, EM Macro is subject to converging pressures.It is essential to embrace the diversity in the EM space here.I have been advocating throughout the early spring that EM’s were ahead and would be the first rate-cutters in this cycle and the LatAm carry trade will likely take in water in the aftermath – while the rate cuts have largely aligned with my expectations (which preceded market pricing I might add), the punishment in foreign exchange has been harsher and quicker than I anticipated.

EM BY EM #16 Counting coppers and rating cuts

United States

Copper is a chemical element with symbol Cu (from Latin: cuprum) and atomic number 29. It is a soft, malleable and ductile metal with very high thermal and electrical conductivity. A freshly exposed surface of pure copper has a reddish-orange color. It is used as a conductor of heat and electricity, as a building material and as a constituent of various metal alloys, such as Sterling silver used in jewelry, cupronickel used to make marine hardware and coins and constantan used in strain gauges and thermocouples for temperature measurement.

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Copper (COPPER COMDTY)

Traders Remain Neutral Commodities // Copper Loses as China Falls Apart

The vast majority of oranges produced in the US come from Florida, which has been hobbled by hurricanes and a cold snap, massively hampering supply.

The Commodity Report

Cocoa Market Started Collapsing // Soybean Spreads crash down

Cocoa Market Started Collapsing Run-ups in commodity markets tend to be slow but steady but meltdowns on the other hand fast and sharp

The Commodity Report

Commodity Watch: Alternatives to Betting Directly on the Curve

With MOVE and 10 year yield 3m rolling correlation back to its 2022 levels, is it time for a cocktail of a rates volatility wrecking ball ala...

Steno Research

Positioning Watch – The Chinese Disappointment Is Written All over the Latest Positioning

Weekends provide the perfect opportunity to review the market’s performance over the past week – and this week has again been full of volatility...

Steno Research

EM BY EM #16 Counting coppers and rating cuts

As we engage a pivotal juncture between DM rates approaching peak and China on the verge of descending into deflation, EM Macro is subject to...

Steno Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)