IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/net-one-systems-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1279:1" rel="noopener">Net One Systems (7518 JP)</a> has recommended a tender offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/scsk-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19996:1" rel="noopener">Scsk Corp (9719 JP)</a> at JPY4,500, 25.9% premium to the undisturbed price of JPY3,574 (5 November).</li>
<li>The tender offer runs from 7 November to 18 December (30 business days), with payment commencing from 25 December. The offer is marginally below the all-time high. </li>
<li>The offer is attractive compared to precedent transactions, peer multiples, and historical trading ranges. The shareholder register is open, which facilitates the deal.  </li>
</ul>



Net One Systems (7518 JP) has recommended a tender offer from Scsk Corp (9719 JP) at JPY4,500, 25.9% premium to the undisturbed price of JPY3,574 (5 November).
The tender offer runs from 7 November to 18 December (30 business days), with payment commencing from 25 December. The offer is marginally below the all-time high. 
The offer is attractive compared to precedent transactions, peer multiples, and historical trading ranges. The shareholder register is open, which facilitates the deal.  


Net One Systems (7518 JP): SCSK (9719 JP)’s JPY4,500 Tender Offer

Nec Networks & System Integr / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nec-networks-system-integr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16396:1" rel="noopener">Nec Networks &amp; System Integr (1973 JP)</a> has recommended a tender offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nec-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17084:1" rel="noopener">NEC Corp (6701 JP)</a> at JPY3,250, 21.5% premium to the undisturbed price of JPY2,675 (28 October).</li>
<li>The tender offer runs from 30 October to 11 December (30 business days), with payment commencing from 18 December. The offer represents an all-time high. </li>
<li>While below the midpoint IFA DCF range, the offer is attractive vs peer multiples and historical trading ranges. This is a done deal. </li>
</ul>



Nec Networks &amp; System Integr (1973 JP) has recommended a tender offer from NEC Corp (6701 JP) at JPY3,250, 21.5% premium to the undisturbed price of JPY2,675 (28 October).
The tender offer runs from 30 October to 11 December (30 business days), with payment commencing from 18 December. The offer represents an all-time high. 
While below the midpoint IFA DCF range, the offer is attractive vs peer multiples and historical trading ranges. This is a done deal. 


NESIC (1973 JP): NEC (6701 JP)’s JPY3,250 Tender Offer

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Watch for a 'megaquake' reversal after a big rotation for names deemed to be winners/losers on Friday on heightened expectations for a major Nankai Trough earthquake over the w/e</li>
<li>Retail related should rebound sharply after a solid 1Q showing from 3099 <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/isetan-mitsukoshi-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18871:1" rel="noopener">Isetan Mitsukoshi</a>, with several related names yet to rebound on concerns the stronger yen will curb tourist spending.</li>
<li>1911 <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sumitomo-forestry-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9769:1" rel="noopener">Sumitomo Forestry</a> business briefing Friday confirms the strength of its US housing business, with it likely to easily exceed its latest MTP.</li>
</ul>


Watch for a 'megaquake' reversal after a big rotation for names deemed to be winners/losers on Friday on heightened expectations for a major Nankai Trough earthquake over the w/e
Retail related should rebound sharply after a solid 1Q showing from 3099 Isetan Mitsukoshi, with several related names yet to rebound on concerns the stronger yen will curb tourist spending.
1911 Sumitomo Forestry business briefing Friday confirms the strength of its US housing business, with it likely to easily exceed its latest MTP.


Japan Morning Connection: 3099 JP, 1911 JP, 5803 JP

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>The review period for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> September rebalance ended yesterday. There could be three changes at the rebalance with sector balance in focus for the additions.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a>'s capping in the index has been confirmed and its index weight will drop by around 0.9% resulting in big selling at the close on 30 September. </li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to buy between 3.5-35x ADV (2.4%-24% of real float) on the inclusions and sell between 3.7-42.5x ADV on the deletions.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) September rebalance ended yesterday. There could be three changes at the rebalance with sector balance in focus for the additions.

Fast Retailing (9983 JP)'s capping in the index has been confirmed and its index weight will drop by around 0.9% resulting in big selling at the close on 30 September. 
Passive trackers will need to buy between 3.5-35x ADV (2.4%-24% of real float) on the inclusions and sell between 3.7-42.5x ADV on the deletions.


Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 2024): Review Period Done; Fast Retailing Capping Confirmed

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/disco-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15817:1" rel="noopener">DISCO (6146 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/socionext-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36351:1" rel="noopener">Socionext (6526 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zozo-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18379:1" rel="noopener">ZOZO (3092 JP)</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/takara-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11074:1" rel="noopener">Takara Holdings (2531 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sumitomo-osaka-cement-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20460:1" rel="noopener">Sumitomo Osaka Cement (5232 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pacific-metals-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3439:1" rel="noopener">Pacific Metals (5541 JP)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225</a>.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nitori-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20386:1" rel="noopener">Nitori Holdings (9843 JP)</a>'s PAF will increase from 0.3 to 0.5, and surprisingly there is no PAF adjustment for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zozo-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18379:1" rel="noopener">ZOZO Inc (3092 JP)</a>. </li>
<li>Passive trackers need to buy between 1-18 days of ADV on the adds while selling between 2.7-28 days of ADV on the deletes. There is a big funding trade too.</li>
</ul>



DISCO (6146 JP), Socionext (6526 JP) and ZOZO (3092 JP) will replace Takara Holdings (2531 JP), Sumitomo Osaka Cement (5232 JP) and Pacific Metals (5541 JP) in the Nikkei 225.

Nitori Holdings (9843 JP)'s PAF will increase from 0.3 to 0.5, and surprisingly there is no PAF adjustment for ZOZO Inc (3092 JP). 
Passive trackers need to buy between 1-18 days of ADV on the adds while selling between 2.7-28 days of ADV on the deletes. There is a big funding trade too.


Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: DISCO, Socionext, ZOZO In; PacMetals, Sumitomo Osaka, Takara Holding Out

Japan

COMSYS Holdings Corporation is a holding company established through the merger of Nippon Comsys, Sanwa Elec, and Higashi Nihon System.  The Company, through its subsidiaries, designs, constructs, and maintains telecommunication and electrical facilities.  Comsys Holdings also manages subsidiaries that operate information processing businesses.

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Comsys Holdings (1721 JP)

Net One Systems (7518 JP): SCSK (9719 JP)’s JPY4,500 Tender Offer

The offer is attractive compared to precedent transactions, peer multiples, and historical trading ranges. The shareholder register is open, which...

Arun George

NESIC (1973 JP): NEC (6701 JP)’s JPY3,250 Tender Offer

While below the midpoint IFA DCF range, the offer is attractive vs peer multiples and historical trading ranges. This is a done deal.

Arun George

Japan Morning Connection: 3099 JP, 1911 JP, 5803 JP

Expect a 'megaquake' reversal in stock names post-rotation due to earthquake warnings, retail rebound likely after strong 3099 1Q showing,...

Andrew Jackson

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 2024): Review Period Done; Fast Retailing Capping Confirmed

Review period ended yesterday. Fast Retailing's capping will result in a 0.9% drop in index weight. There could be 3 index changes with sector...

Brian Freitas

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: DISCO, Socionext, ZOZO In; PacMetals, Sumitomo Osaka, Takara Holding Out

The adds are all up since announcement, led by Zozo. Nitori is up too even though the upweight was knows. Two of the three deletes are lower....

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Net One Systems (7518 JP): SCSK (9719 JP)’s JPY4,500 Tender Offer

The offer is attractive compared to precedent transactions, peer multiples, and historical trading ranges. The shareholder register is open, which...

Arun George

NESIC (1973 JP): NEC (6701 JP)’s JPY3,250 Tender Offer

While below the midpoint IFA DCF range, the offer is attractive vs peer multiples and historical trading ranges. This is a done deal.

Arun George

Japan Morning Connection: 3099 JP, 1911 JP, 5803 JP

​Expect a 'megaquake' reversal in stock names post-rotation due to earthquake warnings, retail rebound likely after strong 3099 1Q showing,...

Andrew Jackson

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 2024): Review Period Done; Fast Retailing Capping Confirmed

Review period ended yesterday. Fast Retailing's capping will result in a 0.9% drop in index weight. There could be 3 index changes with sector...

Brian Freitas

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: DISCO, Socionext, ZOZO In; PacMetals, Sumitomo Osaka, Takara Holding Out

The adds are all up since announcement, led by Zozo. Nitori is up too even though the upweight was knows. Two of the three deletes are lower....

Brian Freitas

Expect a 'megaquake' reversal in stock names post-rotation due to earthquake warnings, retail rebound likely after strong 3099 1Q showing,...