Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Over the last few weeks, companies in India have been disclosing their shareholding pattern as of end-September. There are a few companies with significant float changes from end-March and/or end-June.</li>
<li>The changes in free float could be reflected in domestic and global indices over the next couple of months resulting in action from passive trackers.</li>
<li>We find 9 stocks where there could be inflows with passive trackers needing to buy over 1 day of ADV on most stocks.</li>
</ul>


Over the last few weeks, companies in India have been disclosing their shareholding pattern as of end-September. There are a few companies with significant float changes from end-March and/or end-June.
The changes in free float could be reflected in domestic and global indices over the next couple of months resulting in action from passive trackers.
We find 9 stocks where there could be inflows with passive trackers needing to buy over 1 day of ADV on most stocks.


India - Free Float Changes to Drive Passive Inflows

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Slow pick-up in demand, revenue to grow by 6/10% on YoY/four-year CAGR: Our FMCG coverage universe is expected to deliver 6/10% growth YoY/four-year CAGR in revenue in Q2FY24 (vs18/10% in Q2FY23 and 9/3% in Q1FY24)</li><li>The demand trend has remained stable during the quarter, mirroring the trends in Q1FY24</li><li>Rural recovery remained below expectations due to high food prices and below-normal rainfall</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Slow pick-up in demand, revenue to grow by 6/10% on YoY/four-year CAGR: Our FMCG coverage universe is expected to deliver 6/10% growth YoY/four-year CAGR in revenue in Q2FY24 (vs18/10% in Q2FY23 and 9/3% in Q1FY24)The demand trend has remained stable during the quarter, mirroring the trends in Q1FY24Rural recovery remained below expectations due to high food prices and below-normal rainfallContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FMCG & Alco Bev -  Slow Demand Recovery, Margin Expansion to Continue

<ul><li>The HSIE consumer index sales grew by 9% YoY in Q1FY24 (+36% in Q1FY23 on a low base, +13% in Q4FY23)</li><li>On a four-year CAGR basis, the universe clocked 15% growth in Q1FY24 with QSR/Paints growing ahead of our index (35/15%) in Q1FY24</li><li>Home Care/F&amp;B/Footwear grew in double digits (13/11/11%), while Oral Care/OTC FMCG/Cigarette/BPC underperformed, below the aggregate at 7% each.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The HSIE consumer index sales grew by 9% YoY in Q1FY24 (+36% in Q1FY23 on a low base, +13% in Q4FY23)On a four-year CAGR basis, the universe clocked 15% growth in Q1FY24 with QSR/Paints growing ahead of our index (35/15%) in Q1FY24Home Care/F&amp;B/Footwear grew in double digits (13/11/11%), while Oral Care/OTC FMCG/Cigarette/BPC underperformed, below the aggregate at 7% each.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FMCG: Rural recovery insight, margin recovery to sustain

<ul><li>Underlying volume CAGR to sustain revenue to grow by 8/11% on YoY/four-year CAGR: Our FMCG coverage universe is expected to deliver growth of 8/11% on YoY/four-year CAGR in revenue in Q1FY24 (vs 23/10% in Q1FY23 and 9/9% in Q4FY23)</li><li>Continuing from previous quarters the demand environment remained stable led by urban markets while rural recovery was below expectation</li><li>The FMCG sector is expected to witness a gradual recovery in demand led by moderating inflation improving consumer confidence and an increase in government spending</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Underlying volume CAGR to sustain revenue to grow by 8/11% on YoY/four-year CAGR: Our FMCG coverage universe is expected to deliver growth of 8/11% on YoY/four-year CAGR in revenue in Q1FY24 (vs 23/10% in Q1FY23 and 9/9% in Q4FY23)Continuing from previous quarters the demand environment remained stable led by urban markets while rural recovery was below expectationThe FMCG sector is expected to witness a gradual recovery in demand led by moderating inflation improving consumer confidence and an increase in government spendingContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FMCG & Alco Bev - Slow Pick-Up in Growth, Margin Expansion to Continue

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the NIFTY 50 and NIFTY 100 indices in the September 2023 rebalance.</li>
<li>The NIFTY Next 50 methodology was supposed to change in June 2023 but this has been kept on hold for now. This change could still take place before September 2023.</li>
<li>The HDFC/HDFC Bank Merger is expected to complete in the next few weeks and that could trigger intra-review index changes.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the NIFTY 50 and NIFTY 100 indices in the September 2023 rebalance.
The NIFTY Next 50 methodology was supposed to change in June 2023 but this has been kept on hold for now. This change could still take place before September 2023.
The HDFC/HDFC Bank Merger is expected to complete in the next few weeks and that could trigger intra-review index changes.


Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Sep 23: Non F&O Stocks Dilemma and Replacements for HDFC

India

Colgate-Palmolive (India) Ltd. manufactures consumer products in the oral care and body care area. The Company's products include soaps, cosmetics, toilet preparations, toothpaste, toothbrushes, shaving brushes, and glycerin.

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Colgate Palmolive (India) (CLGT IN)

India - Free Float Changes to Drive Passive Inflows

Changes to shareholding patterns could lead to changes in float for some stocks in local/global indices. Passive trackers will need to trade over 3...

Brian Freitas

FMCG & Alco Bev - Slow Demand Recovery, Margin Expansion to Continue

Our FMCG coverage universe is expected to deliver 6/10% growth YoY/four-year CAGR in revenue in Q2FY24 (vs18/10% in Q2FY23 and 9/3% in Q1FY24)

HDFC Securities

FMCG: Rural recovery insight, margin recovery to sustain

On a four-year CAGR basis, the universe clocked 15% growth in Q1FY24 with QSR/Paints growing ahead of our index (35/15%) in Q1FY24

HDFC Securities

FMCG & Alco Bev - Slow Pick-Up in Growth, Margin Expansion to Continue

Continuing from previous quarters the demand environment remained stable led by urban markets while rural recovery was below expectation

HDFC Securities

Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Sep 23: Non F&O Stocks Dilemma and Replacements for HDFC

LTIMindtree and Jindal Steel could be NIFTY 50 and NIFTY Next 50 intra-review replacements for HDFC and these changes could be implemented at the...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

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