Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Welcome to our weekly EM editorial, where we touch upon the most tradeable topics in liquid EM markets and how they interact with main themes in G10 markets.</li>
<li>The overwhelming story centers around the position squaring party that has been triggered by the reversal of the carry trade in USDJPY.</li>
<li>The real rate spread is no longer trending upwards, leaving the fair value lower than 150 now that the spec long positioning in USD versus JPY is getting squeezed.</li>
</ul>


Welcome to our weekly EM editorial, where we touch upon the most tradeable topics in liquid EM markets and how they interact with main themes in G10 markets.
The overwhelming story centers around the position squaring party that has been triggered by the reversal of the carry trade in USDJPY.
The real rate spread is no longer trending upwards, leaving the fair value lower than 150 now that the spec long positioning in USD versus JPY is getting squeezed.


EM Watch: Knock-outing the EM darlings, while inflation is returning in EM space

<ul><li>Today, I am going to address three main topics of concern for investors given the current conflicting signals from the US economy.</li><li>These are the key questions I will address, and I will summarize both the pros and cons of each viewpoint, including my own bottom line: Is liquidity no longer improving, but rather at risk of weakening in the coming months? Is the economy accelerating rather than slowing? Is the commodity complex heavily undervalued or overvalued?</li><li>The equity rotation paired with the sharp sell-off in Tech has had me thinking, and we therefore need to litmus-test every corner of our current thesis. Follow along below.</li></ul>

Today, I am going to address three main topics of concern for investors given the current conflicting signals from the US economy.These are the key questions I will address, and I will summarize both the pros and cons of each viewpoint, including my own bottom line: Is liquidity no longer improving, but rather at risk of weakening in the coming months? Is the economy accelerating rather than slowing? Is the commodity complex heavily undervalued or overvalued?The equity rotation paired with the sharp sell-off in Tech has had me thinking, and we therefore need to litmus-test every corner of our current thesis. Follow along below.

Steno Signals #109 – What if We Are All Wrong on Liquidity, Rates and Commodities?

<ul><li>After a tricky few days, we have started gaining substantial traction in our portfolio again over the past 1-2 trading days.</li><li>Risk assets seem to be stabilizing, with crypto leading a new bull wave, while metals are selling off right, left, and center alongside a turning tide in the USD versus Asian FX and Lat-Am FX overall.</li><li>Over the week, our biggest concern, given our current tilt in industrial metals, is that manufacturing rebounds faster than anticipated by many.</li></ul>

After a tricky few days, we have started gaining substantial traction in our portfolio again over the past 1-2 trading days.Risk assets seem to be stabilizing, with crypto leading a new bull wave, while metals are selling off right, left, and center alongside a turning tide in the USD versus Asian FX and Lat-Am FX overall.Over the week, our biggest concern, given our current tilt in industrial metals, is that manufacturing rebounds faster than anticipated by many.

Portfolio Watch: Here Comes the Metals Meltdown...

<ul><li>Good Afternoon from Europe. It’s incredibly hard for me not to begin this weekly EM blog by emphasizing how bearish I am becoming on Copper, given the current developments out of China.</li><li>Chinese trends are diverging rapidly both internally and externally—the export sectors are performing well, while internal consumption growth is far from firing on all cylinders.</li><li><span style="font-weight: 400;">Ahead of the conclusion of the CCP Plenum, we noted that China Daily posted several upbeat stories on the GDP outlook following the release of a slightly disappointing Q2 report.</span></li></ul>

Good Afternoon from Europe. It’s incredibly hard for me not to begin this weekly EM blog by emphasizing how bearish I am becoming on Copper, given the current developments out of China.Chinese trends are diverging rapidly both internally and externally—the export sectors are performing well, while internal consumption growth is far from firing on all cylinders.Ahead of the conclusion of the CCP Plenum, we noted that China Daily posted several upbeat stories on the GDP outlook following the release of a slightly disappointing Q2 report.

EM Watch: China FLOODS global copper markets amidst the plenum

Geopolitical Analyst, Steno Research, Steno Research

Mikkel Rosenvold

Geopolitical Analyst, Steno Research

<ul><li>We cover the Trump assassination attempt in other spaces, so in this we’ll focus on the political fallout and touch upon other relevant topics, including the Chinese Policy Plenary.</li><li>Firstly some thought on Trump picking J.D. Vance as his running mate.</li><li>As a staunch Trump supporter, Vance represents a more grassroots, anti-establishment figure compared to others like Nikki Haley.</li></ul>

We cover the Trump assassination attempt in other spaces, so in this we’ll focus on the political fallout and touch upon other relevant topics, including the Chinese Policy Plenary.Firstly some thought on Trump picking J.D. Vance as his running mate.As a staunch Trump supporter, Vance represents a more grassroots, anti-establishment figure compared to others like Nikki Haley.

Great Game – Trump: Election or Coronation?

China

The Chinese renminbi (yuan) is the official currency of The People's Republic of China. 

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EM Watch: Knock-outing the EM darlings, while inflation is returning in EM space

Welcome to our weekly EM editorial, where we touch upon the most tradeable topics in liquid EM markets and how they interact with main themes in...

Steno Research

Steno Signals #109 – What if We Are All Wrong on Liquidity, Rates and Commodities?

I am going to address three main topics of concern for investors given the current conflicting signals from the US economy.

Steno Research

Portfolio Watch: Here Comes the Metals Meltdown...

After a tricky few days, we have started gaining substantial traction in our portfolio again over the past 1-2 trading days.

Steno Research

EM Watch: China FLOODS global copper markets amidst the plenum

Good Afternoon from Europe. It’s incredibly hard for me not to begin this weekly EM blog by emphasizing how bearish I am becoming on Copper, given...

Steno Research

Great Game – Trump: Election or Coronation?

Welcome to this week’s Great Game after an incredible weekend. We also cover the Trump assasination attempt in other spaces, so in this we’ll...

Steno Research

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