China Macroeconomics & Academia

Christopher Balding

FX & Rates

Unpacking the CNH Spread and Why It MattersThe offshore CNH has lingered at a significant premium for more than a month, though it dropped yesterday, prompting questions about the significance of this differential with the onshore RMB.  Previously, CNH premium had come briefly during periods of significant tightness.  This ongoing premium shift appears to chart Beijing policy for the year going forward and the pricing impact.When the CNH is at a premium, this gives firms an incentive to…

Unpacking the CNH Spread and Why It MattersThe offshore CNH has lingered at a significant premium for more than a month, though it dropped yesterday, prompting questions about the significance of this differential with the onshore RMB.  Previously, CNH premium had come briefly during periods of significant tightness.  This ongoing premium shift appears to chart Beijing policy for the year going forward and the pricing impact.When the CNH is at a premium, this gives firms an incentive to…

What Is the Implication of the CNH Premium?

FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

The Trump team present a fiery defense against potentially damaging allegations over its conduct, appealing to their loyalist following with a focus on repealing Obamacare, building a wall, attacking the media, and accusing intelligence agencies of Gestapo tactics. The Theatre generated volatility and a further correction in the USD, creating doubts over the capacity of the next presidency to deliver on tax reform and infrastructure spending that might boost US  growth.  Gyrations may also have been exacerbated by recent efforts by China to reduce capital outflow that might be supporting US Treasury bonds, boosting Chinese commodity futures and weakening Bitcoin.  Meanwhile, stronger economic growth indicators in the US and abroad, higher inflation readings in China and rising market-based inflation expectations suggest upward pressure on global yields and the USD should resume before long.  US PPI, retail sales and University of Michigan surveys of consumer sentiment and inflation expectations before end-week may provide support for yields and the USD.

The Trump team present a fiery defense against potentially damaging allegations over its conduct, appealing to their loyalist following with a focus on repealing Obamacare, building a wall, attacking the media, and accusing intelligence agencies of Gestapo tactics. The Theatre generated volatility and a further correction in the USD, creating doubts over the capacity of the next presidency to deliver on tax reform and infrastructure spending that might boost US  growth.  Gyrations may also have been exacerbated by recent efforts by China to reduce capital outflow that might be supporting US Treasury bonds, boosting Chinese commodity futures and weakening Bitcoin.  Meanwhile, stronger economic growth indicators in the US and abroad, higher inflation readings in China and rising market-based inflation expectations suggest upward pressure on global yields and the USD should resume before long.  US PPI, retail sales and University of Michigan surveys of consumer sentiment and inflation expectations before end-week may provide support for yields and the USD.

Trump Drama and China Capital Flow Crackdown Generate Market Hiccup

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

Had a spot on Bloomberg this morning.To view click on this link: <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2017-01-06/2017-outlook-what-s-in-store-for-currencies" target="_blank">https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2017-01-06/2017-outlook-what-s-in-store-for-currencies</a><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/018/718/original/CPG%20FRONT%20COVER.png?1483695685" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="18718"></figure><div class="content-caption">Bloomberg interview</div>This Bloomberg invterview covers the following:1. S&amp;P base case view for a rise to 2,400, followed by a meaningful correction.2. DXY bullish view toward 104.15/107 and 117 under the assumption DXY holds the 100 breakout level while allowing for noise to 99 during a January-February corrective cycle.3.  USD/JPY pushing on…

Had a spot on Bloomberg this morning.To view click on this link: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2017-01-06/2017-outlook-what-s-in-store-for-currenciesBloomberg interviewThis Bloomberg invterview covers the following:1. S&amp;P base case view for a rise to 2,400, followed by a meaningful correction.2. DXY bullish view toward 104.15/107 and 117 under the assumption DXY holds the 100 breakout level while allowing for noise to 99 during a January-February corrective cycle.3.  USD/JPY pushing on…

Bespoke Research on China and neighbouring regions, Bixmoor

Bixmoor

Bespoke Research on China and neighbouring regions

Bixmoor specialises in providing bespoke research to business, governments and the financial community on China and neighbouring regions. We seek to build long-term relationships with our clients, based on our expertise, our reliability and our determination to find the right solution.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Rapid  growth from a dynamic economy once defined China, as it modernized its huge industrial sector. Now an ageing and declining population, combined with sluggish growth paint a different picture. Are the best years already passed?

Rapid  growth from a dynamic economy once defined China, as it modernized its huge industrial sector. Now an ageing and declining population, combined with sluggish growth paint a different picture. Are the best years already passed?

The CNY is still one of the least volatile currencies in Asia, but it has become more volatile and is the weakest in Asia this year.  Since the beginning of the year, The Chinese government has moved to emphasize management of its exchange rate against a basket of other currencies.  Their official basket includes significant components for EUR, JPY, and GBP.  As such, even though the CNY has depreciated significantly against the USD, it has been stable against its basket since July.  Nevertheless, China did allow the CNY to depreciate steadily against its basket in the first half of the year, and it appears to be pursuing a weaker exchange rate policy.  Chinese citizens and company capital outflow has persistent at a moderate pace this year, kept under control by capital flow restrictions.  However, in recent months it has picked up to a high since January when adding inflows from onshore to offshore RMB. These flows do not appear be causing severe liquidity problems for Chinese capital markets or wider global risk aversion, but they do point to underlying weakness in Chinese economic confidence and may be contributing to strength in the USD against other currencies.

The CNY is still one of the least volatile currencies in Asia, but it has become more volatile and is the weakest in Asia this year.  Since the beginning of the year, The Chinese government has moved to emphasize management of its exchange rate against a basket of other currencies.  Their official basket includes significant components for EUR, JPY, and GBP.  As such, even though the CNY has depreciated significantly against the USD, it has been stable against its basket since July.  Nevertheless, China did allow the CNY to depreciate steadily against its basket in the first half of the year, and it appears to be pursuing a weaker exchange rate policy.  Chinese citizens and company capital outflow has persistent at a moderate pace this year, kept under control by capital flow restrictions.  However, in recent months it has picked up to a high since January when adding inflows from onshore to offshore RMB. These flows do not appear be causing severe liquidity problems for Chinese capital markets or wider global risk aversion, but they do point to underlying weakness in Chinese economic confidence and may be contributing to strength in the USD against other currencies.

Weaker CNY Inducing More China Capital Outflow and Reinforcing USD Strength

China

The Chinese renminbi (yuan) is the official currency of The People's Republic of China. 

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What Is the Implication of the CNH Premium?

Unpacking the CNH Spread and Why It MattersThe offshore CNH has lingered at a significant premium for more than a month, though it dropped...

Christopher Balding

Trump Drama and China Capital Flow Crackdown Generate Market Hiccup

The Trump team present a fiery defense against potentially damaging allegations over its conduct, appealing to their loyalist following with a...

Greg Gibbs

FX/Equity Bloomberg Interview

Had a spot on Bloomberg this morning.To view click on this...

Thomas Schroeder

Signs of a Smaller, Less Dynamic China

Rapid growth from a dynamic economy once defined China, as it modernized its huge industrial sector. Now an ageing and declining population,...

Bixmoor

Weaker CNY Inducing More China Capital Outflow and Reinforcing USD Strength

The CNY is still one of the least volatile currencies in Asia, but it has become more volatile and is the weakest in Asia this year. Since the...

Greg Gibbs

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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