Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

* New proposed US tariffs of 25% is motivated in large part by the recent depreciation of the CNY; * F/X Reserve Data Likely to Come in Weaker Than Expected; and* Mainland China could offer greater US imports; and increased US access to the domestic market. <h2>Investment Summary</h2>The increase in proposed US tariffs to 25% is motivated in large part by the recent depreciation of the CNY by 10% versus the USD in retaliation to US tariffs. However, the case for compromise appears to be increasing on…

* New proposed US tariffs of 25% is motivated in large part by the recent depreciation of the CNY; * F/X Reserve Data Likely to Come in Weaker Than Expected; and* Mainland China could offer greater US imports; and increased US access to the domestic market. Investment SummaryThe increase in proposed US tariffs to 25% is motivated in large part by the recent depreciation of the CNY by 10% versus the USD in retaliation to US tariffs. However, the case for compromise appears to be increasing on…

China Macroeconomics & Academia

Christopher Balding

FX & Rates

There is no reason we believe that the RMB is facing or is currently in devaluation. While it is fair to watch for RMB devaluation going forward, we do not believe the PBOC intends to devalue the RMB by any significant amount beyond the USDX with expected noise parameters and the general trend in global currencies against the USD. There is no data evidence to support this position.

There is no reason we believe that the RMB is facing or is currently in devaluation. While it is fair to watch for RMB devaluation going forward, we do not believe the PBOC intends to devalue the RMB by any significant amount beyond the USDX with expected noise parameters and the general trend in global currencies against the USD. There is no data evidence to support this position. 

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


<ul>
<li>We disagree that the Chinese Yuan will slump further or formally devalue. We expect a modest additional 2-5% slide this year.</li>
<li>We foresee several key changes that will culminate in the formation of a de facto Yuan-bloc of Asian currencies. These will ultimately ‘float away’ from the US dollar and Euro. </li>
<li>China is providing leadership of this group and is already embarking on another round of domestic demand stimulus. Could the next bull market start in Beijing?</li>
</ul>The most important ‘price’ in the…


We disagree that the Chinese Yuan will slump further or formally devalue. We expect a modest additional 2-5% slide this year.
We foresee several key changes that will culminate in the formation of a de facto Yuan-bloc of Asian currencies. These will ultimately ‘float away’ from the US dollar and Euro. 
China is providing leadership of this group and is already embarking on another round of domestic demand stimulus. Could the next bull market start in Beijing?
The most important ‘price’ in the…

The Most Important Price In The World … Possibly?

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

REAL-Economics.com

The renewed RMB weakness this week demonstrates that it will not be possible for China to run expansionary monetary policy without threatening financial stability. China's strategy of easing liquidity conditions (through 150bp of RRR cuts in the past 3 months) is causing substantial capital flight -- but the PBOC is masking this by selling US dollars in the forward rather than spot market (akin to what the BoT and BoK did in 1997). This is not yet 1997 Redux. But the threatened imposition of US…

The renewed RMB weakness this week demonstrates that it will not be possible for China to run expansionary monetary policy without threatening financial stability. China's strategy of easing liquidity conditions (through 150bp of RRR cuts in the past 3 months) is causing substantial capital flight -- but the PBOC is masking this by selling US dollars in the forward rather than spot market (akin to what the BoT and BoK did in 1997). This is not yet 1997 Redux. But the threatened imposition of US…

China: Barely Staying Afloat with New Money and Fiddled Data

FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

GBP has made gains since Friday and may be placed to extend these in coming weeks after recent stronger than expected UK economic reports, upbeat comments from BoE Governor Carney, and a political win for PM May that should help ease Brexit uncertainty in the near term. Trade tensions remain fraught between the US and China and recent weakness in global export confidence may keep Asian currencies under pressure.  China is courting the EU in trade relations to counter the risks of a US trade war.  The EU may find it can ease its trade risks while the US and China slug it out.

GBP has made gains since Friday and may be placed to extend these in coming weeks after recent stronger than expected UK economic reports, upbeat comments from BoE Governor Carney, and a political win for PM May that should help ease Brexit uncertainty in the near term. Trade tensions remain fraught between the US and China and recent weakness in global export confidence may keep Asian currencies under pressure.  China is courting the EU in trade relations to counter the risks of a US trade war.  The EU may find it can ease its trade risks while the US and China slug it out. 

China

The Chinese renminbi (yuan) is the official currency of The People's Republic of China. 

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CNY (USDCNY CURNCY)

A Case For US/China Trade War Compromise

* New proposed US tariffs of 25% is motivated in large part by the recent depreciation of the CNY; * F/X Reserve Data Likely to Come in Weaker Than...

Thomas J. Monaco

Is the PBOC Devaluing the RMB?

There is no reason we believe that the RMB is facing or is currently in devaluation. While it is fair to watch for RMB devaluation going forward,...

Christopher Balding

The Most Important Price In The World … Possibly?

We disagree that the Chinese Yuan will slump further or formally devalue. We expect a modest additional 2-5% slide this year. We foresee several...

Michael J. Howell

China: Barely Staying Afloat with New Money and Fiddled Data

The renewed RMB weakness this week demonstrates that it will not be possible for China to run expansionary monetary policy without threatening...

Prasenjit K. Basu

GBP May Be in a Sweet Spot

GBP has made gains since Friday and may be placed to extend these in coming weeks after recent stronger than expected UK economic reports, upbeat...

Greg Gibbs

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