Fixed Income and Currency Strategist

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX & Rates

<ul>
<li>The Turkish lira has become the worst-performing currency this year as the central bank is holding the policy rate steady despite sharply accelerating inflation, leading to highly negative real rates.</li>
<li>The lira is effectively in a vicious cycle: weakening currency adds to inflationary pressures, which with the central bank on hold means real rates become more negative, hurting the currency.</li>
<li>High inflation is also weighing on the economic outlook, which combined with worsening current account and fiscal deficits and depleting international reserves, is adding to the depreciation pressure.</li>
</ul>


The Turkish lira has become the worst-performing currency this year as the central bank is holding the policy rate steady despite sharply accelerating inflation, leading to highly negative real rates.
The lira is effectively in a vicious cycle: weakening currency adds to inflationary pressures, which with the central bank on hold means real rates become more negative, hurting the currency.
High inflation is also weighing on the economic outlook, which combined with worsening current account and fiscal deficits and depleting international reserves, is adding to the depreciation pressure.


Turkish Lira Takes the Helm as the Worst-Performing EM Currency

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>High conviction USD longs were outlined last week and we met or are meeting fresh buy levels with some support re test risk into mid-June.</li>
<li>From mid June the cycle supports higher yields, lower equities and a stronger USD tied to yield and risk aversion.</li>
<li>USD meeting long entry targets vs Euro, (JPY 127) and Sterling. CNH, THB, AUD and NZD have met first tranche USD long levels. USD/INR bull triangle stands out.</li>
</ul>


High conviction USD longs were outlined last week and we met or are meeting fresh buy levels with some support re test risk into mid-June.
From mid June the cycle supports higher yields, lower equities and a stronger USD tied to yield and risk aversion.
USD meeting long entry targets vs Euro, (JPY 127) and Sterling. CNH, THB, AUD and NZD have met first tranche USD long levels. USD/INR bull triangle stands out.


Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Yuan / In Depth: Behind the yuan’s tumble against the dollar</li><li>Juvenile / China seeks to prevent sealed juvenile criminal records from being leaked</li><li>Carbon / China lays out fiscal tools to reach carbon neutrality by 2060</li></ul>

Yuan / In Depth: Behind the yuan’s tumble against the dollarJuvenile / China seeks to prevent sealed juvenile criminal records from being leakedCarbon / China lays out fiscal tools to reach carbon neutrality by 2060

CX Daily: Behind the Yuan’s Tumble Against the Dollar

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


<ul>
<li>
 Chinese economy skidding badly, buffeted by C-19 lockdowns and strong US dollar. Domestic economic weakness alongside strong dollar are two critical facts. </li>
<li>
US dollar has been weaponized and pointed towards the Chinese Yuan. Growing pressure on Yuan to devalue </li>
<li>
US policy is to drive Fed balance sheet lower and US dollar higher, forcing credit funders back to the US unit</li>
</ul>



 Chinese economy skidding badly, buffeted by C-19 lockdowns and strong US dollar. Domestic economic weakness alongside strong dollar are two critical facts. 

US dollar has been weaponized and pointed towards the Chinese Yuan. Growing pressure on Yuan to devalue 

US policy is to drive Fed balance sheet lower and US dollar higher, forcing credit funders back to the US unit


Yuan Devaluation (CNY): China At A Turning Point?

<ul><li>China eases Covid-19 test rules for air travelers from more countries</li><li>Global investors continue to dump yuan bonds as Treasurys, dollar rise</li><li>Chinese President Xi Jinping pledges to open door wider to world</li></ul>

China eases Covid-19 test rules for air travelers from more countriesGlobal investors continue to dump yuan bonds as Treasurys, dollar riseChinese President Xi Jinping pledges to open door wider to world

CX Daily: China Eases Covid-19 Test Rules for Air Travelers From More Countries

China

The Chinese renminbi (yuan) is the official currency of The People's Republic of China. 

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Turkish Lira Takes the Helm as the Worst-Performing EM Currency

The Turkish lira is effectively in a vicious cycle: weakening currency adds to inflationary pressures, which with the central bank on hold means...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Meeting USD Fresh Long Levels

High conviction USD longs were outlined last week and we met or are meeting fresh buy levels with some support re test risk into mid-June.

Thomas Schroeder

CX Daily: Behind the Yuan’s Tumble Against the Dollar

Yuan / In Depth: Behind the yuan’s tumble against the dollar. Juvenile / China seeks to prevent sealed juvenile criminal records from being leaked

Caixin Global

Yuan Devaluation (CNY): China At A Turning Point?

Domestic economic weakness plus strong US dollar expose China's fragile position. C-19 lockdowns have hard-hit the economy, but PBoC being forced...

Michael J. Howell

CX Daily: China Eases Covid-19 Test Rules for Air Travelers From More Countries

China eases Covid-19 test rules for air travelers from more countries. Global investors continue to dump yuan bonds as Treasurys, dollar rise

Caixin Global

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