Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Takeaways:We maintain a bearish outlook on MXN, questioning the effectiveness of Banxico’s efforts in light of a bleak economic outlook.</li><li>We believe that market distress surrounding Egypt is exaggerated, and we speculate whether Saudi Arabia has silently committed to supporting higher crude oil pricesThe US is undergoing a pivotal moment as the Treasury exercises restraint, possibly signaling the end of US exceptionalism.</li><li>We anticipate reduced concerns about US bond yields impacting global growth, despite substantial issuance.</li></ul>

Takeaways:We maintain a bearish outlook on MXN, questioning the effectiveness of Banxico’s efforts in light of a bleak economic outlook.We believe that market distress surrounding Egypt is exaggerated, and we speculate whether Saudi Arabia has silently committed to supporting higher crude oil pricesThe US is undergoing a pivotal moment as the Treasury exercises restraint, possibly signaling the end of US exceptionalism.We anticipate reduced concerns about US bond yields impacting global growth, despite substantial issuance.

EM by EM 41: Fearing the Fury but Fading the Fear

<ul><li>The Chinese rally seems driven by talk rather than action- a warning to bulls as it is could reverse as swiftly if the rumours dissipate or prove unfounded</li><li>We prefer to maintain a long position in China but through proxies with broader exposure, despite appealing low valuations in equities.</li><li>While there’s debate over US growth, markets are reevaluating it upwards, and we remain bullish on risk and the USD.</li></ul>

The Chinese rally seems driven by talk rather than action- a warning to bulls as it is could reverse as swiftly if the rumours dissipate or prove unfoundedWe prefer to maintain a long position in China but through proxies with broader exposure, despite appealing low valuations in equities.While there’s debate over US growth, markets are reevaluating it upwards, and we remain bullish on risk and the USD.

EM by EM #40: Chinese Promises and Mexican Traps

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

<ul><li>Let’s start with the current situation in the Red Sea.</li><li>Things are very grim and the only container ships that currently dare to sail through the Red Sea are Russian due to their support of Iran and the Houthis.</li><li>Yesterday a Maersk ship hauling US government cargo had to turn back in the Red Sea after explosions nearby.</li></ul>

Let’s start with the current situation in the Red Sea.Things are very grim and the only container ships that currently dare to sail through the Red Sea are Russian due to their support of Iran and the Houthis.Yesterday a Maersk ship hauling US government cargo had to turn back in the Red Sea after explosions nearby.

Shipping Watch: Consider buying your Christmas presents now!

Elias Lisberg Glistrup

<ul><li>Welcome to this chart-dense edition of the Equity Watch, where we zoom in on the Japanese Nikkei 225 and ponder whether it’s too late to capitalize on its stride, or if the bet in fact has got legs and fundamentals working for it.</li><li>Yesterday morning CET, the BoJ announced its latest monetary policy decision, and once again, it chose to maintain the status quo.</li><li>While FX and FI are synonymous to Japan, its equity market has arguably transformed from under-equitized to one of the hottest bull markets in the uncertain conditions of today.</li></ul>

Welcome to this chart-dense edition of the Equity Watch, where we zoom in on the Japanese Nikkei 225 and ponder whether it’s too late to capitalize on its stride, or if the bet in fact has got legs and fundamentals working for it.Yesterday morning CET, the BoJ announced its latest monetary policy decision, and once again, it chose to maintain the status quo.While FX and FI are synonymous to Japan, its equity market has arguably transformed from under-equitized to one of the hottest bull markets in the uncertain conditions of today.

Equity Watch: Japan – Board or abort Nikkei 225?

<ul><li>Last time around in our EM series we made the case that a (potential) pending Chinese stimulus would more than likely be aimed at the supply side and that the reluctance of the Chinese leadership to back anything domestically beyond back-stopping financial fragility caused Real Estate rug-pulling and risks causing more goods-deflation to the RoW in 2024,  which may act as a counterweight to the current momentum in freight rates.</li><li>Whether that call comes to fruition is obviously subject to risk but what is beyond dispute is that any policy action aimed at boosting output will necessarily enhance the leverage level which is already at astronomical levels in relative terms</li><li>Instead of committing to reverse the dynamics that the CCP themselves let loose, a variety of policy tweaks have been implemented to minimize the damage: Front rate cuts to easing capital requirements for banks and easing of mortgage rules for first-time buyers.</li></ul>

Last time around in our EM series we made the case that a (potential) pending Chinese stimulus would more than likely be aimed at the supply side and that the reluctance of the Chinese leadership to back anything domestically beyond back-stopping financial fragility caused Real Estate rug-pulling and risks causing more goods-deflation to the RoW in 2024,  which may act as a counterweight to the current momentum in freight rates.Whether that call comes to fruition is obviously subject to risk but what is beyond dispute is that any policy action aimed at boosting output will necessarily enhance the leverage level which is already at astronomical levels in relative termsInstead of committing to reverse the dynamics that the CCP themselves let loose, a variety of policy tweaks have been implemented to minimize the damage: Front rate cuts to easing capital requirements for banks and easing of mortgage rules for first-time buyers.

China Watch: From a controlled demolition to another round of damage control?

China

The Chinese renminbi (yuan) is the official currency of The People's Republic of China. 

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EM by EM 41: Fearing the Fury but Fading the Fear

Takeaways:We maintain a bearish outlook on MXN, questioning the effectiveness of Banxico’s efforts in light of a bleak economic outlook. We...

Steno Research

EM by EM #40: Chinese Promises and Mexican Traps

Key takeaways:The Chinese rally seems driven by talk rather than action- a warning to bulls as it is could reverse as swiftly if the rumours...

Steno Research

Shipping Watch: Consider buying your Christmas presents now!

Let’s start with the current situation in the Red Sea. Things are very grim and the only container ships that currently dare to sail through the...

Steno Research

Equity Watch: Japan – Board or abort Nikkei 225?

Welcome to this chart-dense edition of the Equity Watch, where we zoom in on the Japanese Nikkei 225 and ponder whether it’s too late to...

Steno Research

China Watch: From a controlled demolition to another round of damage control?

Last time around in our EM series (see here) we made the case that a (potential) pending Chinese stimulus would more than likely be aimed at the...

Steno Research

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