Independent Insight Provider

Hao Wang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

We have quite a few market surprises this year, especially from China, not to mention those from Middle East. Here I would like to mention a <a href="http://paper.people.com.cn/rmrb/html/2016-01/04/nw.D110000renmrb_20160104_1-02.htm" target="_blank">very important article</a> published on the front page and the whole second page on People's Daily on Jan 4th. Though the article is only in Chinese and not covered by most of the foreign media, it gives probably the best explanation of the so-called supply-side reform and more importantly the intentions of top leaders on economic policies. Given that most of…

We have quite a few market surprises this year, especially from China, not to mention those from Middle East. Here I would like to mention a very important article published on the front page and the whole second page on People's Daily on Jan 4th. Though the article is only in Chinese and not covered by most of the foreign media, it gives probably the best explanation of the so-called supply-side reform and more importantly the intentions of top leaders on economic policies. Given that most of…

What You Might Have Missed but Should Not on China's Supply-Side Reform

EM PM, Ecstrat

Emad Mostaque

EM PM

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
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More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

The Middle East has already hit the headlines in 2016 as the relationship between Saudi Arabia and Iran deteriorated further after the execution of 47 convicts including Shia cleric Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr.While some claim this is the latest manifestation of a historic Sunni-Shia hatred, digging deeper shows other, more important factors at work that could determine the fallout for the region.

The Middle East has already hit the headlines in 2016 as the relationship between Saudi Arabia and Iran deteriorated further after the execution of 47 convicts including Shia cleric Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr.While some claim this is the latest manifestation of a historic Sunni-Shia hatred, digging deeper shows other, more important factors at work that could determine the fallout for the region.

This is a very short note on my top 5 trade recommendations in 2016 after the close of 2015 based on my previous note of 2016 outlook (i.e. be aggressive in Q1 but defensive thereafter). The basis are higher commodities prices led by copper, crude and some bulk, and relatively weaker USD. <figure class="editor-figure"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/004/820/original/Fig6.png?1451718588" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="4820"><figcaption class="figcaption">Top five macro trades in 2016Q1</figcaption></figure>In the above trade recommendations, you also have levels of profit target and stop loss. They are ranked by the ratio of reward/risk. Going forward I will keep updating levels…

This is a very short note on my top 5 trade recommendations in 2016 after the close of 2015 based on my previous note of 2016 outlook (i.e. be aggressive in Q1 but defensive thereafter). The basis are higher commodities prices led by copper, crude and some bulk, and relatively weaker USD. Top five macro trades in 2016Q1In the above trade recommendations, you also have levels of profit target and stop loss. They are ranked by the ratio of reward/risk. Going forward I will keep updating levels…

This is a quick note on macro views in 2016. The analysis is largely based on cycles of industrial production, inventory levels, real estate investment, monetary policies and fiscal policies.To establish a view on commodities, equity, fixed income or other asset classes, we need to have a solid view on two biggest swing factors: US dollar and China's economy. My views are: slightly weaker dollar in first half 2016 followed by a much stronger dollar in 2nd half; China's economy may see short term…

This is a quick note on macro views in 2016. The analysis is largely based on cycles of industrial production, inventory levels, real estate investment, monetary policies and fiscal policies.To establish a view on commodities, equity, fixed income or other asset classes, we need to have a solid view on two biggest swing factors: US dollar and China's economy. My views are: slightly weaker dollar in first half 2016 followed by a much stronger dollar in 2nd half; China's economy may see short term…

Be Aggressive in Q1 2016 and Be Defensive Through Rest of 2016

Transport Sector, China and Asia-focused Research

Charles De Trenck

I've been on the road meeting clients, ex-clients and friends and will have more to report after the holidays. But wanted to flag some takeaways and trades for 2016 here. I think we can have three scenarios and go with the most likely as our base case. At the same time I think we continue to accumulate the pain trades slowly. Evidence of tax based selling is all around us and we may feel like krap continuing down this path. But the evidence from trading, to me, appears clear enough. Wishing a happy holidays to all.

I've been on the road meeting clients, ex-clients and friends and will have more to report after the holidays. But wanted to flag some takeaways and trades for 2016 here. I think we can have three scenarios and go with the most likely as our base case. At the same time I think we continue to accumulate the pain trades slowly. Evidence of tax based selling is all around us and we may feel like krap continuing down this path. But the evidence from trading, to me, appears clear enough. Wishing a happy holidays to all. 

2016: A Year of Reckoning, But Possibly Not as Painful For The Prepared

China

CNOOC Limited, through its subsidiaries, explores, develops, produces, and sells crude oil and natural gas. The Company focuses in the areas such as Bohai, Western South China Sea, Eastern South China Sea and East China Sea in offshore China. Internationally, the Group has oil and gas assets in Asia, Africa, North America, South America, and Oceania.

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CNOOC Ltd (883 HK)

What You Might Have Missed but Should Not on China's Supply-Side Reform

We have quite a few market surprises this year, especially from China, not to mention those from Middle East. Here I would like to mention a very...

Hao Wang, CFA

The Sunni-Shia Canard

The Middle East has already hit the headlines in 2016 as the relationship between Saudi Arabia and Iran deteriorated further after the execution of...

Emad Mostaque

Top 5 Macro Trades in 2016Q1

This is a very short note on my top 5 trade recommendations in 2016 after the close of 2015 based on my previous note of 2016 outlook (i.e. be...

Hao Wang, CFA

Be Aggressive in Q1 2016 and Be Defensive Through Rest of 2016

This is a quick note on macro views in 2016. The analysis is largely based on cycles of industrial production, inventory levels, real estate...

Hao Wang, CFA

2016: A Year of Reckoning, But Possibly Not as Painful For The Prepared

I've been on the road meeting clients, ex-clients and friends and will have more to report after the holidays. But wanted to flag some takeaways...

Charles De Trenck

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