EM PM, Ecstrat

Emad Mostaque

EM PM

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
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More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div>Oil prices have had a jittery week after the shock of the US elections leading to a dollar resurgence and abject confusion over the impact on the potential impending OPEC deal. </div><div>Short positions have steadily been building under the assumption a deal likely won't be done, or if it is done then it won't be enforceable and not take enough barrels off the market. </div><div>This had sparked a predictable series of leaks and a flurry of diplomatic activity from oil ministers and the OPEC Secretary General to try…</div>

Oil prices have had a jittery week after the shock of the US elections leading to a dollar resurgence and abject confusion over the impact on the potential impending OPEC deal. Short positions have steadily been building under the assumption a deal likely won't be done, or if it is done then it won't be enforceable and not take enough barrels off the market. This had sparked a predictable series of leaks and a flurry of diplomatic activity from oil ministers and the OPEC Secretary General to try…

<p>Most investors are in a state of complete confusion at the moment following the surprise election of President-elect Trump. Even many that thought the market was underpricing Trump winning have been shocked by the market reaction, flipping to a remarkably positive outlook. </p><p>This note looks at some of the structural underpinnings that inform this uncertainty and some elements of how we can start to model the likeliest outcomes going forward.</p>

Most investors are in a state of complete confusion at the moment following the surprise election of President-elect Trump. Even many that thought the market was underpricing Trump winning have been shocked by the market reaction, flipping to a remarkably positive outlook. This note looks at some of the structural underpinnings that inform this uncertainty and some elements of how we can start to model the likeliest outcomes going forward.

Thematic Investing in Tech and Media, CM Research

Cyrus Mewawalla

Thematic Investing in Tech and Media

Thematic TMT investing

CM Research

CM Research is an independent research house based in London, England. We provide global thematic research in the Technology, Media and Telecoms (TMT) sectors. 

Our focus is on disruptive technologies: how will they unfold; which industries will be impacted; and who will be the ultimate winners and losers. 

Our aim is to help investors predict share prices and corporate executives stay one step ahead of the technology trends that are shaping their industry. 

We research technology investment themes in detail and then feed the results into a scorecard system to quantify the impact of several conflicting themes on individual stocks. 

Recent themes covered include internet TV, the Internet of Things, Big Data, Mobile payments, crowdfunding, artificial intelligence, the cloud, software defined networking and Generation Hashtag.

We cover the top 500 global TMT stocks by market capitalisation and several technology start-ups and pre-IPO companies too. 

In 2015, CM Research analysts outperformed the Bloomberg Benchmark Analyst Index - which measures how good analysts are at predicting stock prices - by 7.1%.

<p>As the dust settles after the US presidential election, we look at the medium-term investment implications of a Trump presidency for technology stocks.</p><p>The biggest benefit to the US tech sector will come from lower tax rates. The biggest risk is trade wars that result in higher tariffs and retaliation against US tech companies. The wildcard is regulation: net neutrality rules – if relaxed – could shift the balance of power from internet companies to telcos.</p><p>Below we look at five themes emanating from Mr Trump's policies that have a direct impact on the global tech sector: taxation, trade, regulation, cybersecurity and social media.</p>

As the dust settles after the US presidential election, we look at the medium-term investment implications of a Trump presidency for technology stocks.The biggest benefit to the US tech sector will come from lower tax rates. The biggest risk is trade wars that result in higher tariffs and retaliation against US tech companies. The wildcard is regulation: net neutrality rules – if relaxed – could shift the balance of power from internet companies to telcos.Below we look at five themes emanating from Mr Trump's policies that have a direct impact on the global tech sector: taxation, trade, regulation, cybersecurity and social media.

Transport Sector, China and Asia-focused Research

Charles De Trenck

<p>It is not official yet. But against many odds it looks like Trump has taken it.  There are many implications we need to act on in our portfolios. ... </p><p>I didn’t think he’d manage it. His indiscretions seemed too large, his gaffes too many. But what we saw, with some 1+m Trump win of the popular vote, was the forgotten rural Americans voting anti-Clinton in greater numbers than expected, particularly in Blue Belt (Rust Belt) areas of the US Center. All while doing what Trump said he would do in…</p>

It is not official yet. But against many odds it looks like Trump has taken it.  There are many implications we need to act on in our portfolios. ... I didn’t think he’d manage it. His indiscretions seemed too large, his gaffes too many. But what we saw, with some 1+m Trump win of the popular vote, was the forgotten rural Americans voting anti-Clinton in greater numbers than expected, particularly in Blue Belt (Rust Belt) areas of the US Center. All while doing what Trump said he would do in…

Against [Official] Odds It's a Trump USA Now

<p>As we come to the end of potentially one of the most transformative nights in global history it now seems almost certain that Donald Trump will be President of the United States of America, comfortably winning the electoral vote even as Hillary won the popular vote. </p><p>I outline my initial thoughts on the drivers behind this, and the political, geopolitical and market impact of this below.</p>

As we come to the end of potentially one of the most transformative nights in global history it now seems almost certain that Donald Trump will be President of the United States of America, comfortably winning the electoral vote even as Hillary won the popular vote. I outline my initial thoughts on the drivers behind this, and the political, geopolitical and market impact of this below.

Trump & The Morning After the Night Before

China

CNOOC Limited, through its subsidiaries, explores, develops, produces, and sells crude oil and natural gas. The Company focuses in the areas such as Bohai, Western South China Sea, Eastern South China Sea and East China Sea in offshore China. Internationally, the Group has oil and gas assets in Asia, Africa, North America, South America, and Oceania.

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CNOOC Ltd (883 HK)

Playing the OPEC Deal

Oil prices have had a jittery week after the shock of the US elections leading to a dollar resurgence and abject confusion over the impact on the...

Emad Mostaque

Trump, OPEC and Uncertain Games

Most investors are in a state of complete confusion at the moment following the surprise election of President-elect Trump. Even many that thought...

Emad Mostaque

What Trump Means for Tech

As the dust settles after the US presidential election, we look at the medium-term investment implications of a Trump presidency for technology...

CM Research

Against [Official] Odds It's a Trump USA Now

It is not official yet. But against many odds it looks like Trump has taken it. There are many implications we need to act on in our portfolios....

Charles De Trenck

Trump & The Morning After the Night Before

As we come to the end of potentially one of the most transformative nights in global history it now seems almost certain that Donald Trump will be...

Emad Mostaque

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