Emerging markets PM, economist, CFA charterholder

Mark A. DeWeaver, PhD, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

Recently one reads with increasing frequency that we are approaching a peak in global oil demand. As the world switches from oil to natural gas and from internal combustion engines to batteries, the argument goes, demand growth will inevitably fall to zero and then turn negative. Some forecasters are expecting this event to occur as early as 10-15 years from now; others look for a peak as far out as 2040. (See <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/peak-oil-demand-are-we-there-yet" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:11249">Peak Oil Demand - Are We There Yet?</a> for a summary of the arguments and <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/get-ready-for-peak-oil-demand-1495419061" target="_blank">this Wall</a>…

Recently one reads with increasing frequency that we are approaching a peak in global oil demand. As the world switches from oil to natural gas and from internal combustion engines to batteries, the argument goes, demand growth will inevitably fall to zero and then turn negative. Some forecasters are expecting this event to occur as early as 10-15 years from now; others look for a peak as far out as 2040. (See Peak Oil Demand - Are We There Yet? for a summary of the arguments and this Wall…

<ul class="ember-tether-target ember-tether-element-attached-top ember-tether-element-attached-left ember-tether-target-attached-top ember-tether-target-attached-right"><li>With an EV/EBITDAX ratio of 5.3, CNOOC is one of the cheapest names in the oil and gas exploration and production sector.</li><li>The company also compares well to peers in terms of financial strength, with net debt/equity of only 36%.</li><li>CNOOC’s reserve losses since 2014 have been entirely due to lower oil prices.</li><li>Low levels of global investment in conventional resources are setting the stage for the next bull market in oil and gas.</li><li>CNOOC is an attractive play on this recovery theme.</li></ul>

With an EV/EBITDAX ratio of 5.3, CNOOC is one of the cheapest names in the oil and gas exploration and production sector.The company also compares well to peers in terms of financial strength, with net debt/equity of only 36%.CNOOC’s reserve losses since 2014 have been entirely due to lower oil prices.Low levels of global investment in conventional resources are setting the stage for the next bull market in oil and gas.CNOOC is an attractive play on this recovery theme.

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

In this report we look at China and its place within global emerging market equity funds.  We find that despite a large underweight relative to the benchmark MSCI Emerging Market Index, China is comfortably the most important region for global emerging market investors by some margin.  We examine how current allocations compare to other major EM nations and how China's sector allocations are evolving through time.  Finally, we screen for the key Chinese stocks that professional EM investors most and least prefer.  The data used in the analysis is taken from the portfolio holdings of 127 prominent global EM funds over a 6 year period.

In this report we look at China and its place within global emerging market equity funds.  We find that despite a large underweight relative to the benchmark MSCI Emerging Market Index, China is comfortably the most important region for global emerging market investors by some margin.  We examine how current allocations compare to other major EM nations and how China's sector allocations are evolving through time.  Finally, we screen for the key Chinese stocks that professional EM investors most and least prefer.  The data used in the analysis is taken from the portfolio holdings of 127 prominent global EM funds over a 6 year period.

Doing bespoke work since 2002....., Custom Products Group

Patrick Hansen

Doing bespoke work since 2002.....

Custom Products Group

Custom Products was started 14 years ago at Lehman Brothers by current co-founder Patrick Hansen, CFA. After 3 years at Lehman, Patrick moved the team to Macquarie Securities where Simon Rigney (co-founder) joined. 3 years ago we took Custom Products independent. 

Our core strength can be summed up three words. 1- Customization - we have very little off the shelf products and most work is done on a one on one bespoke basis. 2- Speed - We pride ourselves in our ability to get requests back to the client very quickly. 3- Confidentiality - We do not redistribute. There is no grace period where we wait a week and then mass blast. Any request stops with that client.

As you know we track the Analyst Upgrades / Downgrades over the previous 2 week to identify potential trends in popularity. Which Sectors / Countries do the Analysts like and which ones do they not.<h2>% of Upgrades relative to Total (Country Level)  </h2><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/023/339/original/4.png?1490822348" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="23339"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Custom Products</div>Interestingly over the last 2 week, Hong Kong has had the most Upgrades relative to total recommendations while China has had the least. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/175" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:175:1">CNOOC Ltd (883 HK)</a> had 5 upgrades and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/368" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:368:1">China Oilfield Services H (2883 HK)</a> also had 5…

As you know we track the Analyst Upgrades / Downgrades over the previous 2 week to identify potential trends in popularity. Which Sectors / Countries do the Analysts like and which ones do they not.% of Upgrades relative to Total (Country Level)  Source: Custom ProductsInterestingly over the last 2 week, Hong Kong has had the most Upgrades relative to total recommendations while China has had the least. CNOOC Ltd (883 HK) had 5 upgrades and China Oilfield Services H (2883 HK) also had 5…

Most Popular / Unpopular Sectors and Countries in Asia - Ex Japan

Founder, Riedel Research

David Riedel

Founder

Independent equity research on GEM Markets

Riedel Research

Riedel provides equity research and analysis to leading financial organizations. By becoming members of a region (Asia, Latin America, Emerging Europe or Global), organizations have access to an integrated set of services including:

Regular company coverage reports
Up-to-date investment decision advice (buy, hold, sell)
Monthly regional and global conference calls
Customized company reports and unlimited on-line access to the program's services.

Riedel provides research coverage of companies across the full range of market capitalization. Experienced research professionals in each market develop company reports and analysis as well as earnings models and projections. Ratings are Buy, Hold and Sell with a focus on compelling investment ideas - both long and short. Downloadable, dynamic earnings models are built to facilitate sensitivity analysis.

Please feel free to contact us for complimentary access to our written research.  We want to show you that our unique research flow can add value and help develop a long-term, high value-add relationship.

Riedel's model focuses on providing clients with unique insights and consulting in addition to unlimited access to all produced research This model allows members to receive exponential benefits for their retainer fees.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Hungary: Faster earnings growth should drive GDP higher in coming months. Mexico: Expected to raise rates 50bps next Thursday in the wake of inflation reported this week at 5.3% (the highest rate in 8 years).  This is a critical positive development for the Peso. Saudi Arabia: Has the most to lose from lower prices as this complicates attempts to diversify their economy.  Iran is less concerned as they are just coming off of sanctions and any revenue they get is better than before.  Iraq would…

Hungary: Faster earnings growth should drive GDP higher in coming months. Mexico: Expected to raise rates 50bps next Thursday in the wake of inflation reported this week at 5.3% (the highest rate in 8 years).  This is a critical positive development for the Peso. Saudi Arabia: Has the most to lose from lower prices as this complicates attempts to diversify their economy.  Iran is less concerned as they are just coming off of sanctions and any revenue they get is better than before.  Iraq would…

Who Wins and Who Loses from Oil Under $50? Hint: Invest in Asia

China

CNOOC Limited, through its subsidiaries, explores, develops, produces, and sells crude oil and natural gas. The Company focuses in the areas such as Bohai, Western South China Sea, Eastern South China Sea and East China Sea in offshore China. Internationally, the Group has oil and gas assets in Asia, Africa, North America, South America, and Oceania.

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CNOOC Ltd (883 HK)

Peak Oil Demand and the Case for CNOOC

Recently one reads with increasing frequency that we are approaching a peak in global oil demand. As the world switches from oil to natural gas and...

Mark A. DeWeaver, PhD, CFA

The Case for CNOOC

With an EV/EBITDAX ratio of 5.3, CNOOC is one of the cheapest names in the oil and gas exploration and production sector. The company also...

Mark A. DeWeaver, PhD, CFA

China: Underweight, Not Under-Owned

In this report we look at China and its place within global emerging market equity funds. We find that despite a large underweight relative to the...

Steven Holden

Most Popular / Unpopular Sectors and Countries in Asia - Ex Japan

As you know we track the Analyst Upgrades / Downgrades over the previous 2 week to identify potential trends in popularity. Which Sectors /...

Custom Products Group

Who Wins and Who Loses from Oil Under $50? Hint: Invest in Asia

Hungary: Faster earnings growth should drive GDP higher in coming months.Mexico: Expected to raise rates 50bps next Thursday in the wake of...

David Riedel

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