Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

China Traditional Chinese Medicine / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>I tally 53 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>Five new deals discussed this week on Smartkarma! <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/boral-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1487:1" rel="noopener">Boral Ltd (BLD AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csr-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17380:1" rel="noopener">CSR Ltd (CSR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ansarada-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30718:1" rel="noopener">Ansarada Group Ltd (AND AU)</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-traditional-chinese-medicine" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:351:1" rel="noopener">TCM (570 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/snow-peak-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7218:1" rel="noopener">Snow Peak Inc (7816 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates took place on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/azure-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16538:1" rel="noopener">Azure Minerals (AZS AU)</a>,  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cimc-vehicles-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28012:1" rel="noopener">CIMC Vehicle Group Co Ltd (1839 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/outsourcing-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7431:1" rel="noopener">Outsourcing Inc (2427 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genetron-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28435:1" rel="noopener">Genetron Holdings Ltd (GTH US)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 53 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
Five new deals discussed this week on Smartkarma! Boral Ltd (BLD AU), CSR Ltd (CSR AU), Ansarada Group Ltd (AND AU),TCM (570 HK), and Snow Peak Inc (7816 JP).
Key updates took place on Azure Minerals (AZS AU),  CIMC Vehicle Group Co Ltd (1839 HK), Outsourcing Inc (2427 JP), and Genetron Holdings Ltd (GTH US).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Boral, CSR, Ansarada, TCM, Snow Peak, Azure Min, Genetron

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cie-de-saint-gobain" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21547:1" rel="noopener">Cie De Saint-Gobain (SGO FP)</a> is offering <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csr-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17380:1" rel="noopener">CSR (CSR AU)</a> shareholders A$9/share by way of a Scheme, a 34% premium to last close. That's a knockout price.</li>
<li>The Offer is indicative. Confirmatory due diligence is ongoing. CSR board has, not surprisingly "unanimously resolved to pursue the offer at an agreed price of A$9.00". </li>
<li>A firm offer would be subject to FIRB and shareholder approval. Neither should pose an issue. Assuming a firm Offer is shortly forthcoming, this could be wrapped up late-July</li>
</ul>



Cie De Saint-Gobain (SGO FP) is offering CSR (CSR AU) shareholders A$9/share by way of a Scheme, a 34% premium to last close. That's a knockout price.
The Offer is indicative. Confirmatory due diligence is ongoing. CSR board has, not surprisingly "unanimously resolved to pursue the offer at an agreed price of A$9.00". 
A firm offer would be subject to FIRB and shareholder approval. Neither should pose an issue. Assuming a firm Offer is shortly forthcoming, this could be wrapped up late-July


CSR (CSR AU): Saint Gobain's $9/Share NBIO

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>In response to media speculation, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cie-de-saint-gobain" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21547:1" rel="noopener">Cie De Saint-Gobain (SGO FP)</a> confirmed a non-binding proposal for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csr-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17380:1" rel="noopener">CSR Ltd (CSR AU)</a> at A$9.00, a 32.9% premium to the undisturbed price.</li>
<li>Saint-Gobain is conducting confirmatory due diligence. CSR is at a trading halt concerning receiving a proposal regarding a potential material transaction involving CSR.</li>
<li>Shareholders should be supportive as the offer represents a 15-year high. The timing of a binding agreement is the key risk.  </li>
</ul>


In response to media speculation, Cie De Saint-Gobain (SGO FP) confirmed a non-binding proposal for CSR Ltd (CSR AU) at A$9.00, a 32.9% premium to the undisturbed price.
Saint-Gobain is conducting confirmatory due diligence. CSR is at a trading halt concerning receiving a proposal regarding a potential material transaction involving CSR.
Shareholders should be supportive as the offer represents a 15-year high. The timing of a binding agreement is the key risk.  


CSR (CSR AU): Saint-Gobain’s Non-Binding Proposal at A$9.00

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cie-de-saint-gobain" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21547:1" rel="noopener">Cie De Saint-Gobain (SGO FP)</a> has approached <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csr-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17380:1" rel="noopener">CSR Ltd (CSR AU)</a> with a non-binding indicative offer to acquire all of CSR's shares at A$9/share via a scheme of arrangement.</li>
<li>At the last close of CSR (pre-trading halt) the gross spread to the offer price is 13.21%. That will close significantly once the stock resumes trading.</li>
<li>Given the large premium to the last close, at a price higher than the highest high, and support from the CSR Board, the deal should go through.</li>
</ul>



Cie De Saint-Gobain (SGO FP) has approached CSR Ltd (CSR AU) with a non-binding indicative offer to acquire all of CSR's shares at A$9/share via a scheme of arrangement.
At the last close of CSR (pre-trading halt) the gross spread to the offer price is 13.21%. That will close significantly once the stock resumes trading.
Given the large premium to the last close, at a price higher than the highest high, and support from the CSR Board, the deal should go through.


CSR Ltd (CSR AU): Saint-Gobain's A$9/Share Offer

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

<ul>
<li>The September 2023 index changes for the ES50 index was confirmed after the close on Friday 1st September 2023.</li>
<li>There will be two ADDs and two DELETEs. One set of changes was well anticipated by us. The other set comes as a major surprise to us.</li>
<li>Collectively, the two ADDs could see ~US$2.4bn index flows and the two DELs could see ~US$2.9bn index flows, with US$500mm of reverse funding flows.</li>
</ul>


The September 2023 index changes for the ES50 index was confirmed after the close on Friday 1st September 2023.
There will be two ADDs and two DELETEs. One set of changes was well anticipated by us. The other set comes as a major surprise to us.
Collectively, the two ADDs could see ~US$2.4bn index flows and the two DELs could see ~US$2.9bn index flows, with US$500mm of reverse funding flows.


Quiddity ES50 Sep 23 Rebal: Ferrari/Vonovia Change Confirmed + Another US$2bn+ Flow Surprise!

France

Tarkett SA manufactures and distributes building products. The Company offers a wide range of flooring solutions such as vinyl, laminate, wood, carpet rolls and tiles, linoleum, artificial turf, and accessories.

VINCI SA is a global player in concessions and construction with expertise in building, civil, hydraulic, and electrical engineering. The Company offers construction-related specialities and road materials production, as well as finance, management, operations and maintenance of public infrastructure such as motorways, airports, and road and rail infrastructures.

Bouygues SA offers construction services, develops real estate, offers cellular communications services, produces television programming and movies, and manages utilities.  The Company offers building, civil engineering, and oil and gas contracting services, develops residential, commercial, and office projects, produces and distributes water and electricity, and collects waste.

Thales SA manufactures aerospace systems and industrial electronics products. The Company manufactures radar and countermeasure systems, optronics and electron tubes, communications, navigation, and identification systems, air traffic management systems, computer hardware and software, missile defense systems, and semiconductors.  Thales serves the civilian and military markets.

Legrand S.A. specializes in products and systems for electrical installations and information networks.  The company's products are offered for residential, commercial, and industrial use.

Eiffage SA is a contractor and a concessionaire. The Company operates through numerous business lines, including concessions and public-private partnerships, construction, public works, energy, metal. Eiffage offers its products and services throughout Europe and Senegal.

Colas SA offers construction and engineering services.  The Company constructs and maintains roads, bridges, railways, parking lots, airport runways, test tracks and circuits, industrial floors, logistics hubs, and commercial and leisure facilities.  Colas also manufactures aggregates and related products, waterproofing materials, and equipment for traffic control worldwide.

Rexel SA distributes low voltage electrical equipment.  The Company distributes wires, cables, ducts, heating, light and ventilation equipment, security equipment, household appliances, and products which connect computer peripherals to networks.  Rexel sells its products to electrical contractors, industrial and service sector companies, homeowners, and government agencies.

SPIE SA provides engineering services. The Company designs, constructs, and maintains electrical and mechanical infrastructure, energy applications, communication systems as well as offers facilities management, industrial machinery installations, and security equipment. SPIE serves clients worldwide.

Builders FirstSource, Inc. manufactures and distributes building products to professional homebuilders.

Masco Corporation manufactures, and sells home improvement and building products.  The Company's products include faucets, kitchen and bath cabinets, architectural coatings, and builders' hardware products.  Masco sells its products through mass merchandisers, home centers, hardware stores, and other wholesale and retail outlets to consumers and contractors.

Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. manufactures water drainage structures and supplies. The Company produces pipe fittings, subsurface storm water management surface drainage structures, leaching chambers, basins, channels, grates, and grease interceptors. Advanced Drainage Systems markets and sells its products worldwide.

Owens Corning produces residential and commercial building materials, glass-fiber reinforcements and engineered materials for composite systems. The Company offers its products globally to various industries.

Lennox International Inc. provides climate control solutions in countries located around the world.  The Company designs, manufactures, and markets heating, ventilation, air conditioning, and refrigeration equipment.  Lennox markets its products under brand names such as Lennox, Armstrong Air, Ducane, Bohn, Larkin, Advanced Distributor Products, Service Experts and others.

DAIKIN INDUSTRIES, LTD. manufactures air conditioning equipment for household and commercial use.  The Company also produces fluorine chemical products such as fluorinated hydrocarbon gas and shells and warheads for defense industry.

A.O. Smith Corporation manufactures residential and commercial water heating equipment and water treatment products. The Company distributes its products world wide.

Kingspan Group PLC is a global market player in high performance insulation and building envelope technologies.

Geberit AG manufactures and supplies water supply pipes and fittings, installation systems, drainage and flushing systems such as visible cisterns, and other sanitary systems for the commercial and residential construction markets.  The Company sells its products in Germany, Italy, Switzerland, Austria, the Netherlands, France, and Belgium.

AGC Inc manufactures and sells a variety of glass products. Main products include glass for construction, glass for liquid crystal display(LCD), and glass for automobiles.  The Company also produces electronic parts, fine chemicals, and new ceramics.

Compagnie de Saint-Gobain manufactures glass products, high-performance materials, and construction materials.  The Company produces flat glass, insulation, and glass containers, high-performance ceramics, plastics, and abrasives, and building materials such as roofing, wall facings, mortars, and ductile cast iron pipe.  Saint-Gobain also retails building materials.

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Cie De Saint-Gobain (SGO FP)

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Boral, CSR, Ansarada, TCM, Snow Peak, Azure Min, Genetron

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

CSR (CSR AU): Saint-Gobain’s Non-Binding Proposal at A$9.00

Shareholders should be supportive as the offer represents a 15-year high. The timing of a binding agreement is the key risk.

Arun George

Quiddity ES50 Sep 23 Rebal: Ferrari/Vonovia Change Confirmed + Another US$2bn+ Flow Surprise!

I would look to go SHORT Saint-Gobain vs peers during the Inclusion event especially if Saint-Gobain sharply outperforms peers between now and the...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Boral, CSR, Ansarada, TCM, Snow Peak, Azure Min, Genetron

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

CSR (CSR AU): Saint Gobain's $9/Share NBIO

Trading at a gross/annualised spread of 8.0%/19.7%, assuming late Jul completion. An arbitrageur might get involved here and on any material dips....

David Blennerhassett

CSR (CSR AU): Saint-Gobain’s Non-Binding Proposal at A$9.00

Shareholders should be supportive as the offer represents a 15-year high. The timing of a binding agreement is the key risk.

Arun George

CSR Ltd (CSR AU): Saint-Gobain's A$9/Share Offer

Saint-Gobain has approached CSR with a non-binding indicative offer to acquire all CSR shares at A$9/share. The trend of Construction Materials...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity ES50 Sep 23 Rebal: Ferrari/Vonovia Change Confirmed + Another US$2bn+ Flow Surprise!

I would look to go SHORT Saint-Gobain vs peers during the Inclusion event especially if Saint-Gobain sharply outperforms peers between now and the...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA