New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Chorus' FY22 result was in-line with guidance and our estimates, with the key news relating to a steeper than previously guided dividend path</li><li>We walk away from CNU's results with three key takeaways; (1) commercial/technology uncertainty is fading; (2) there is upside potential to the guided minimum dividend for FY24; (3) it remains difficult to envisage a meaningful deviation from a ~NZ50–55cps dividend for the foreseeable future</li><li>We view CNU as a solid, reasonably valued, low risk infrastructure stock but with limited room to grow.</li></ul>

Chorus' FY22 result was in-line with guidance and our estimates, with the key news relating to a steeper than previously guided dividend pathWe walk away from CNU's results with three key takeaways; (1) commercial/technology uncertainty is fading; (2) there is upside potential to the guided minimum dividend for FY24; (3) it remains difficult to envisage a meaningful deviation from a ~NZ50–55cps dividend for the foreseeable futureWe view CNU as a solid, reasonably valued, low risk infrastructure stock but with limited room to grow.

<ul><li>CNU has reported a solid FY22 result, with EBITDAF of NZ$675m at the mid-point of its guidance range of NZ$665m-685m and slightly below our NZ$685m forecast</li><li>The final dividend of NZ 21cps (taking the FY22 dividend to NZ 35cps) was in line with guidance and our forecast.</li><li>We see the raised dividend path as a clear net positive given that both us and consensus had stuck to CNU’s minimum path in our dividend forecasts</li></ul>

CNU has reported a solid FY22 result, with EBITDAF of NZ$675m at the mid-point of its guidance range of NZ$665m-685m and slightly below our NZ$685m forecastThe final dividend of NZ 21cps (taking the FY22 dividend to NZ 35cps) was in line with guidance and our forecast.We see the raised dividend path as a clear net positive given that both us and consensus had stuck to CNU’s minimum path in our dividend forecasts

Chorus (CNU): FY22 Result − Initial Impressions

<ul><li>Inflation three ways; CNU one of few beneficiaries of higher inflation, but there are a lot of moving parts</li><li>Consensus (and us) have opted for the minimum dividend path — a deviation could be a clear positive</li><li>Boxed in by regulatory framework — value centered around long term technology risk</li></ul>

Inflation three ways; CNU one of few beneficiaries of higher inflation, but there are a lot of moving partsConsensus (and us) have opted for the minimum dividend path — a deviation could be a clear positiveBoxed in by regulatory framework — value centered around long term technology risk

Chorus: FY22 Preview — An Inflation Beneficiary

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In last week's Int'l Compass (July 21) we discussed positive signals that suggested the lows for this bear market may have already been established, or that downside is limited.</li>
<li>But we also noted that various downtrends remained firmly intact, and that we needed to see indexes reverse their downtrends in order to get more constructive at the index level.</li>
<li>It appears the bullish reversals have begun, as the SPX, MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), and STOXX 600 are the first three major indexes to reverse topside their 4-month and YTD downtrends.</li>
</ul>


In last week's Int'l Compass (July 21) we discussed positive signals that suggested the lows for this bear market may have already been established, or that downside is limited.
But we also noted that various downtrends remained firmly intact, and that we needed to see indexes reverse their downtrends in order to get more constructive at the index level.
It appears the bullish reversals have begun, as the SPX, MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), and STOXX 600 are the first three major indexes to reverse topside their 4-month and YTD downtrends.


Europe, MSCI ACWI Bullish Downtrend Reversals as Japan Tests Resistance; Tech, Health Care Buys

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Unsurprisingly, the independent expert (IE) considers the consortium's offer of A$5.00 per share to be fair and reasonable. We think that IE’s valuation approach is sound.  </li>
<li>The key condition is approval from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/uniti-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29042:1" rel="noopener">Uniti Group Ltd (UWL AU)</a> shareholders and regulatory authorities (FIRB). The scheme meeting is scheduled for 9:30 am on 15 July. </li>
<li>We continue to think that offer is attractive. At the last close price and for the 4 August implementation date, the gross and annualised spread is 0.8% and 5.1%, respectively.</li>
</ul>


Unsurprisingly, the independent expert (IE) considers the consortium's offer of A$5.00 per share to be fair and reasonable. We think that IE’s valuation approach is sound.  
The key condition is approval from Uniti Group Ltd (UWL AU) shareholders and regulatory authorities (FIRB). The scheme meeting is scheduled for 9:30 am on 15 July. 
We continue to think that offer is attractive. At the last close price and for the 4 August implementation date, the gross and annualised spread is 0.8% and 5.1%, respectively.


Uniti’s Scheme Meeting on 15 July, IE’s Opinion

New Zealand

Spark New Zealand Limited (formerly Telecom Corporation of New Zealand Limited) provides digital communications, entertainment and IT services over its networks and the Cloud to New Zealanders and businesses. The Company's strategy is focused on mobility, data and effortless service, and cost.

TeamTalk Limited provides radio communication services in New Zealand.  The Company's services is mainly provided through two networks, TeamTalk and Fleetlink. The mobile radio communication service is used by ambulance services, rescue helicopters, courier companies, security services personnel, utility companies, contractors. local authorities and civil defense sectors.

HFCL Ltd provides telecommunication infrastructure construction services. The Company offers optical fiber cables, microwave radios, battery management, and solar solutions. HFCL serves customers in India.

TIME dotCom Berhad through its subsidiaries, provides fixed-line telecommunication services such as data and voice, international bandwidth provision which includes submarine cable and data centre business.

Liberty Global plc owns interests in broadband, distribution, and content companies operating outside the continental United States, principally in Europe, Asia, and Latin America.

Globalstar, Inc. provides mobile voice and data communications services via satellite. The Company primarily provides business and recreational communications to industry, government, and individual customers located in remote areas throughout the world.

Gamma Communications PLC supplies voice, data and mobile products and services in the United Kingdom. The Company provides fixed telephony, IP telephony, hosted phone systems, broadband and data connections, mobile services, security and unified communications solutions.

USEN-NEXT HOLDINGS Co.,Ltd. provides network information services. The Company provides video contents distribution, music contents distribution, and other services. USEN-NEXT HOLDINGS also provides internet agency, mobile communication, and other services.

Macquarie Telecom Group Limited is an Australian telecommunications service provider.  The Group provides local and long distance, calling card and inbound calling services along with the management of telecommunications facilities. The Group also provides data services such as ATM, ISDN and digital leased line along with telecommunications advisory services.

NetLink NBN Trust designs, builds, owns, and operates fiber network infrastructures. The Company offers fiber network resources, including ducts, manholes, and cables. NetLink NBN Trust also focuses on leasing telecommunication infrastructures to telecommunication service providers. NetLink NBN Trust serves customers in Singapore.designs, builds, owns, and operates fiber network infrastructures. The Company offers fiber network resources, including ducts, manholes, and cables. NetLink NBN Trust also focuses on leasing telecommunication infrastructures to telecommunication service providers. NetLink NBN Trust serves customers in Singapore.

Zegona Communications plc is an investment company. The Company buys and sells businesses in the European Telecommunications, Media and Technology (''TMT'') sectors.

LG Uplus Corp., an affiliate of LG Group, provides a wide range of personal communications services (PCS) using code division multiple access (CDMA) technology.  The Company offers call forwarding, call and data transfer, call waiting, voice mail, Internet-phone, prepaid call, and authentication text-to-speech (TTS) services.

Chorus Limited is a wholesale and retail telecommunications company.  The Company maintains and build the Chorus local access network which is made up of local telephone exchanges, cabinets and copper and fiber cables that connects New Zealand homes and businesses throughout the country.

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Chorus Ltd (CNU NZ)

Chorus: FY22 Result — Clear Air

Chorus' FY22 result was in-line with guidance and our estimates, with the key news relating to a steeper than previously guided dividend path

Forsyth Barr

Chorus (CNU): FY22 Result − Initial Impressions

CNU has reported a solid FY22 result, with EBITDAF of NZ$675m at the mid-point of its guidance range of NZ$665m-685m and slightly below our NZ$685m...

Forsyth Barr

Chorus: FY22 Preview — An Inflation Beneficiary

CNU is impacted by inflation in (at least) three ways; Reports its FY22 result on Monday, 22 August

Forsyth Barr

Europe, MSCI ACWI Bullish Downtrend Reversals as Japan Tests Resistance; Tech, Health Care Buys

Bullish reversals have begun, as the $SPX, MSCI ACWI $ACWI, and $STOXX 600 are the first three major indexes to reverse topside their 4-month and...

Vermilion Research

Uniti’s Scheme Meeting on 15 July, IE’s Opinion

We continue to think that offer is attractive. At the last close price and for the 4 August implementation date, the annualised spread is 5.1%.

Arun George

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