Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oz-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1138:1" rel="noopener">OZ Minerals (OZL AU)</a> Scheme Meeting for the acquisition by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP Group (BHP AU)</a> will be held 13 April. The stock could stop trading post close on 18 April.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oz-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1138:1" rel="noopener">OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU)</a> is a member of the S&amp;P/ASX100 Index and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> so there will be replacements made at the close on 18 April.</li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to buy a fair amount of stock (with a decent impact) on the potential inclusions and the stocks could outperform over the next few weeks.</li>
</ul>


The OZ Minerals (OZL AU) Scheme Meeting for the acquisition by BHP Group (BHP AU) will be held 13 April. The stock could stop trading post close on 18 April.

OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU) is a member of the S&amp;P/ASX100 Index and S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) so there will be replacements made at the close on 18 April.
Passive trackers will need to buy a fair amount of stock (with a decent impact) on the potential inclusions and the stocks could outperform over the next few weeks.


OZ Minerals (OZL AU): Scheme Meeting in April; Potential S&P/ASX Changes

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>On 2 March, the Court approved the distribution of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oz-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1138:1" rel="noopener">OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU)</a> Scheme Booklet, which was posted on 3 March 2023. The Scheme Meeting is 13 April 2023.</li>
<li>The Independent Expert has concluded the Scheme is Fair and Reasonable and in the best interests of OZL shareholders. Directors unanimously support.</li>
<li>This deal is almost certainly done. The IE report is, as is often the case, enormously informative. Watch the franking credit timing. Not a lot of spread left here. </li>
</ul>


On 2 March, the Court approved the distribution of the OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU) Scheme Booklet, which was posted on 3 March 2023. The Scheme Meeting is 13 April 2023.
The Independent Expert has concluded the Scheme is Fair and Reasonable and in the best interests of OZL shareholders. Directors unanimously support.
This deal is almost certainly done. The IE report is, as is often the case, enormously informative. Watch the franking credit timing. Not a lot of spread left here. 


OZL Scheme Booklet Posted - 60 Days to Completion

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Chorus (CNU) has reported an operationally in-line 1H23 result, with EBITDAF of NZ$342m, +1% ahead of our NZ$338m forecast, and upgraded the midpoint of its EBITDA guidance for FY23 by ~+2.5%, with the midpoint now being ~+2% ahead of consensus.</li><li>Underlying NPAT of NZ$20m was -42% below consensus and -26% below Forsyth Barr.</li><li>Normalised NPAT was weak driven by substantially higher interest expense, even excluding an NZ$11m one off payment for the re-payment of the 2023 EMTN note</li></ul>

Chorus (CNU) has reported an operationally in-line 1H23 result, with EBITDAF of NZ$342m, +1% ahead of our NZ$338m forecast, and upgraded the midpoint of its EBITDA guidance for FY23 by ~+2.5%, with the midpoint now being ~+2% ahead of consensus.Underlying NPAT of NZ$20m was -42% below consensus and -26% below Forsyth Barr.Normalised NPAT was weak driven by substantially higher interest expense, even excluding an NZ$11m one off payment for the re-payment of the 2023 EMTN note

Chorus (CNU): 1H23 Result − Initial Impressions

<ul><li>Increasing interest expense may sharpen the focus on the next few years of free cash flow</li><li>Connections and capex: CNU has released its fiscal 2Q (calendar 4Q) connections showing +37k connections versus FY22 (30 June 2022)</li><li>EBITDA guidance of NZ$655–675m likely maintained — weather and cost inflation versus cost out in focus</li></ul>

Increasing interest expense may sharpen the focus on the next few years of free cash flowConnections and capex: CNU has released its fiscal 2Q (calendar 4Q) connections showing +37k connections versus FY22 (30 June 2022)EBITDA guidance of NZ$655–675m likely maintained — weather and cost inflation versus cost out in focus

Chorus: 1H23 Preview — Limited Room for Error

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newmont-mining-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14503:1" rel="noopener">Newmont Mining (NEM US)</a> has made an indicative, non-binding and conditional proposal to acquire <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newcrest-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:691:1" rel="noopener">Newcrest Mining (NCM AU)</a>. The exchange ratio is 0.38 Newmont shares for each Newcrest share.</li>
<li>At <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newmont-mining-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14503:1" rel="noopener">Newmont Mining (NEM US)</a>'s last close, this values <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newcrest-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:691:1" rel="noopener">Newcrest Mining (NCM AU)</a> at A$27.4/share and at an equity value of A$17.3bn, a 22% premium to the last close.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/newmont-mining-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14503:1" rel="noopener">Newmont Mining (NEM US)</a> intends to list CDIs on the ASX following the acquisition and that will have implications for changes in the S&amp;P/ASX family of indices.</li>
</ul>



Newmont Mining (NEM US) has made an indicative, non-binding and conditional proposal to acquire Newcrest Mining (NCM AU). The exchange ratio is 0.38 Newmont shares for each Newcrest share.
At Newmont Mining (NEM US)'s last close, this values Newcrest Mining (NCM AU) at A$27.4/share and at an equity value of A$17.3bn, a 22% premium to the last close.

Newmont Mining (NEM US) intends to list CDIs on the ASX following the acquisition and that will have implications for changes in the S&amp;P/ASX family of indices.


Newmont's Indicative Offer for Newcrest Mining (NCM AU)

New Zealand

Spark New Zealand Limited (formerly Telecom Corporation of New Zealand Limited) provides digital communications, entertainment and IT services over its networks and the Cloud to New Zealanders and businesses. The Company's strategy is focused on mobility, data and effortless service, and cost.

TeamTalk Limited provides radio communication services in New Zealand.  The Company's services is mainly provided through two networks, TeamTalk and Fleetlink. The mobile radio communication service is used by ambulance services, rescue helicopters, courier companies, security services personnel, utility companies, contractors. local authorities and civil defense sectors.

HFCL Ltd provides telecommunication infrastructure construction services. The Company offers optical fiber cables, microwave radios, battery management, and solar solutions. HFCL serves customers in India.

TIME dotCom Berhad through its subsidiaries, provides fixed-line telecommunication services such as data and voice, international bandwidth provision which includes submarine cable and data centre business.

Liberty Global plc owns interests in broadband, distribution, and content companies operating outside the continental United States, principally in Europe, Asia, and Latin America.

Globalstar, Inc. provides mobile voice and data communications services via satellite. The Company primarily provides business and recreational communications to industry, government, and individual customers located in remote areas throughout the world.

Gamma Communications PLC supplies voice, data and mobile products and services in the United Kingdom. The Company provides fixed telephony, IP telephony, hosted phone systems, broadband and data connections, mobile services, security and unified communications solutions.

USEN-NEXT HOLDINGS Co.,Ltd. provides network information services. The Company provides video contents distribution, music contents distribution, and other services. USEN-NEXT HOLDINGS also provides internet agency, mobile communication, and other services.

Macquarie Telecom Group Limited is an Australian telecommunications service provider.  The Group provides local and long distance, calling card and inbound calling services along with the management of telecommunications facilities. The Group also provides data services such as ATM, ISDN and digital leased line along with telecommunications advisory services.

NetLink NBN Trust designs, builds, owns, and operates fiber network infrastructures. The Company offers fiber network resources, including ducts, manholes, and cables. NetLink NBN Trust also focuses on leasing telecommunication infrastructures to telecommunication service providers. NetLink NBN Trust serves customers in Singapore.designs, builds, owns, and operates fiber network infrastructures. The Company offers fiber network resources, including ducts, manholes, and cables. NetLink NBN Trust also focuses on leasing telecommunication infrastructures to telecommunication service providers. NetLink NBN Trust serves customers in Singapore.

Zegona Communications plc is an investment company. The Company buys and sells businesses in the European Telecommunications, Media and Technology (''TMT'') sectors.

LG Uplus Corp., an affiliate of LG Group, provides a wide range of personal communications services (PCS) using code division multiple access (CDMA) technology.  The Company offers call forwarding, call and data transfer, call waiting, voice mail, Internet-phone, prepaid call, and authentication text-to-speech (TTS) services.

Chorus Limited is a wholesale and retail telecommunications company.  The Company maintains and build the Chorus local access network which is made up of local telephone exchanges, cabinets and copper and fiber cables that connects New Zealand homes and businesses throughout the country.

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Chorus Ltd (CNU NZ)

OZ Minerals (OZL AU): Scheme Meeting in April; Potential S&P/ASX Changes

OZL's acquisition by BHP is nearly a done deal. Passive trackers will sell 18.24m shs (A$509m; 9.6x ADV) of OZL on the last trading day. There will...

Brian Freitas

OZL Scheme Booklet Posted - 60 Days to Completion

The OZL Scheme Booklet is out. Scheme Meeting 13 April. Completion 2 May. IE Report says "Fair and Reasonable", trading at a tight spread. ASX100...

Travis Lundy

Chorus (CNU): 1H23 Result − Initial Impressions

Chorus (CNU) has reported an operationally in-line 1H23 result, with EBITDAF of NZ$342m, +1% ahead of our NZ$338m forecast, and upgraded the...

Forsyth Barr

Chorus: 1H23 Preview — Limited Room for Error

Chorus (CNU) reports 1H23 earnings on Monday, 20 February 2023 and we expect focus to be on interest expense, dividend path and sustaining capex;...

Forsyth Barr

Newmont's Indicative Offer for Newcrest Mining (NCM AU)

Newmont is looking to acquire Newcrest Mining at an exchange ratio of 0.38 NEM shares per NCM share. That is a 22% premium for NCM. NEM intends to...

Brian Freitas

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