HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Event-Driven

Chongqing Taiji Industry (Group) A / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>TCM formula granules VBP would cause some disturbance to related enterprises’ performance, but the substitution of TCM formula granules for TCM decoction pieces is a trend, indicating long-term optimistic growth.</li>
<li>Keymed’s CM310 would probably miss the NRDL negotiation this year, which will put the Company in passive situation. Based on competitive landscape, we are worried about the performance of Keymed.</li>
<li>Unsatisfactory performance of Taiji’s shares is related to concerns on China TCM’s privatization/24H1 results.However, even without the integration with China TCM, Taiji's market value should be more than RMB20 billion.</li>
</ul>


TCM formula granules VBP would cause some disturbance to related enterprises’ performance, but the substitution of TCM formula granules for TCM decoction pieces is a trend, indicating long-term optimistic growth.
Keymed’s CM310 would probably miss the NRDL negotiation this year, which will put the Company in passive situation. Based on competitive landscape, we are worried about the performance of Keymed.
Unsatisfactory performance of Taiji’s shares is related to concerns on China TCM’s privatization/24H1 results.However, even without the integration with China TCM, Taiji's market value should be more than RMB20 billion.


China Healthcare Weekly (Aug.4)- Taiji Group & China TCM, TCM Formula Granules VBP, Keymed's Trouble

<ul>
<li>In the past few years, a big problem of Taiji is weak performance/low valuation. The main purpose of mixed-ownership reform with CNPGC is to improve operational efficiency and enhance profitability.</li>
<li>CNPGC made a clear commitment to solve the horizontal competition issue. So, after the privatization of China TCM is completed, it's worth noting whether it will be merged into Taiji.</li>
<li>2024 is expected to see Taiji launch new M&amp;A deals, which would bring a qualitative leap for Taiji. Market value of Taiji is expected to at least double. </li>
</ul>


In the past few years, a big problem of Taiji is weak performance/low valuation. The main purpose of mixed-ownership reform with CNPGC is to improve operational efficiency and enhance profitability.
CNPGC made a clear commitment to solve the horizontal competition issue. So, after the privatization of China TCM is completed, it's worth noting whether it will be merged into Taiji.
2024 is expected to see Taiji launch new M&amp;A deals, which would bring a qualitative leap for Taiji. Market value of Taiji is expected to at least double. 


Will China TCM (570.HK) Be Incorporated into Taiji Group (600129.CH)? –If Yes, Valuation Will Double

China Traditional Chinese Medicine / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>We once again heard privatization rumor of China TCM, but China TCM denied it at this stage. We still recommend investors to remain vigilant until receive definite official announcement.</li>
<li>One important background of privatization is the integration of SOE carried out in recent years. We do not rule out the possibility that Taiji Group would drive this privatization.</li>
<li>It may not be an optimal time for the proposal of privatization by major shareholders. Other shareholders may not want to give up high-quality stocks, which makes privatization challenging.</li>
</ul>


We once again heard privatization rumor of China TCM, but China TCM denied it at this stage. We still recommend investors to remain vigilant until receive definite official announcement.
One important background of privatization is the integration of SOE carried out in recent years. We do not rule out the possibility that Taiji Group would drive this privatization.
It may not be an optimal time for the proposal of privatization by major shareholders. Other shareholders may not want to give up high-quality stocks, which makes privatization challenging.


China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570.HK) - Will This Privatization Rumor Come True ?

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-traditional-chinese-medicine" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:351:1" rel="noopener">China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK)</a> profit warning notes that the 1H24 net profit would decrease by 60%-70% YoY due to pricing pressure, higher impairment losses and remedial taxes. </li>
<li>The profit warning could pose a risk to the scheme, as the consortium can withdraw if there is an adverse material change in China TCM's profits or prospects.</li>
<li>If there were a danger of triggering the MAC clause, the consortium would not have made the regulatory submissions. The flip side is that the warning helps the shareholders vote. </li>
</ul>



China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK) profit warning notes that the 1H24 net profit would decrease by 60%-70% YoY due to pricing pressure, higher impairment losses and remedial taxes. 
The profit warning could pose a risk to the scheme, as the consortium can withdraw if there is an adverse material change in China TCM's profits or prospects.
If there were a danger of triggering the MAC clause, the consortium would not have made the regulatory submissions. The flip side is that the warning helps the shareholders vote. 


China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK): Never a Dull Moment as Profit Warning Lands

<ul>
<li>What disappoints investors is that privatization progress is slower-than-expected. Since approval is in "advanced stage", August update is eye-catching. Investors may need more patience with this type of SOE deal. </li>
<li>The key to the success of this privatization lies in whether CNPGC is willing to abide by its commitments. If yes, CNPGC will take all measures to solve the problems.</li>
<li>According to our valuation calculation, even without this privatization, HK$3.5/share is fair for China TCM. Reasonable share price is above HK$5/share. Don't forget, the privatization is still on the agenda.</li>
</ul>


What disappoints investors is that privatization progress is slower-than-expected. Since approval is in "advanced stage", August update is eye-catching. Investors may need more patience with this type of SOE deal. 
The key to the success of this privatization lies in whether CNPGC is willing to abide by its commitments. If yes, CNPGC will take all measures to solve the problems.
According to our valuation calculation, even without this privatization, HK$3.5/share is fair for China TCM. Reasonable share price is above HK$5/share. Don't forget, the privatization is still on the agenda.


China TCM (570.HK) Privatization Update - Things Are Still Manageable

China

Chongqing Taiji Industry (Group) Co., Ltd. manufactures and markets medicines, healthcare products, medical packing products, and medical instruments.  The Company also imports and exports Chinese medicine materials and medical packing materials.

Chongqing Taiji Industry (Group) A (600129 CH)

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Chongqing Taiji Industry (Group) A (600129 CH)

China Healthcare Weekly (Aug.4)- Taiji Group & China TCM, TCM Formula Granules VBP, Keymed's Trouble

Substitution of TCM formula granules for decoction pieces is a trend despite the VBP. Keymed will face difficulties without NRDL negotiation....

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Will China TCM (570.HK) Be Incorporated into Taiji Group (600129.CH)? –If Yes, Valuation Will Double

Under the leadership of CNPGC, Taiji has entered the right track, with significant performance growth.If China TCM is ultimately merged into Taiji...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570.HK) - Will This Privatization Rumor Come True ?

We once again heard privatization rumor of China TCM.Considering the integration trend of SOE, privatization is always in the plan of CNPGC, but we...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK): Never a Dull Moment as Profit Warning Lands

The profit warning is an unwelcome development but should not pose a risk to the scheme by triggering the MAC clause. At the last close, the gross...

Arun George

China TCM (570.HK) Privatization Update - Things Are Still Manageable

Yesterday's announcement indicates the internal approval of CNPGC has been completed and relevant documents have been submitted. As we analyzed in...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

China Healthcare Weekly (Aug.4)- Taiji Group & China TCM, TCM Formula Granules VBP, Keymed's Trouble

​Substitution of TCM formula granules for decoction pieces is a trend despite the VBP. Keymed will face difficulties without NRDL negotiation....

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Will China TCM (570.HK) Be Incorporated into Taiji Group (600129.CH)? –If Yes, Valuation Will Double

Under the leadership of CNPGC, Taiji has entered the right track, with significant performance growth.If China TCM is ultimately merged into Taiji...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570.HK) - Will This Privatization Rumor Come True ?

We once again heard privatization rumor of China TCM.Considering the integration trend of SOE, privatization is always in the plan of CNPGC, but we...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK): Never a Dull Moment as Profit Warning Lands

The profit warning is an unwelcome development but should not pose a risk to the scheme by triggering the MAC clause. At the last close, the gross...

Arun George

China TCM (570.HK) Privatization Update - Things Are Still Manageable

Yesterday's announcement indicates the internal approval of CNPGC has been completed and relevant documents have been submitted. As we analyzed in...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Substitution of TCM formula granules for decoction pieces is a trend despite the VBP. Keymed will face difficulties without NRDL negotiation....