Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>As totally expected, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dai-ichi-life-insurance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1109:1" rel="noopener">Dai Ichi Life Insurance (8750 JP)</a> extended its expected start date for the Tender Offer on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/benefit-one-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14502:1" rel="noopener">Benefit One Inc (2412 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>The possibility of a fourth Offer attempt by the Queks is raised as Elliott surprisingly exits its position in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guoco-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5290:1" rel="noopener">Guoco Group Ltd (53 HK)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guoco-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5290:1" rel="noopener"></a>.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/outsourcing-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7431:1" rel="noopener">Outsourcing Inc (2427 JP)</a> is eminently bumpable, But unless investors force the issue, don't expect a bump.</li>
</ul>


As totally expected, Dai Ichi Life Insurance (8750 JP) extended its expected start date for the Tender Offer on Benefit One Inc (2412 JP).
The possibility of a fourth Offer attempt by the Queks is raised as Elliott surprisingly exits its position in Guoco Group Ltd (53 HK).

Outsourcing Inc (2427 JP) is eminently bumpable, But unless investors force the issue, don't expect a bump.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Benefit One, Guoco, Outsourcing, Hang Lung, Hollysys, Dalek

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

<ul>
<li>The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 "Mainland China" securities listed in Hong Kong.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes and the resultant capping flows for HSCEI in March 2024.</li>
<li>Based on the current data, I see only one low-conviction ADD and one low-conviction DEL.</li>
</ul>


The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 "Mainland China" securities listed in Hong Kong.
In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes and the resultant capping flows for HSCEI in March 2024.
Based on the current data, I see only one low-conviction ADD and one low-conviction DEL.


Quiddity HSCEI Mar 24 Rebalance: Same Rankings; Same Questions

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dai-ichi-life-insurance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1109:1" rel="noopener">Dai Ichi Life (8750 JP)</a> has the wherewithal, and probably the synergies to make a bump for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/benefit-one-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14502:1" rel="noopener">Benefit One (2412 JP)</a> work. M3 is clearly not in the driver's seat.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-united-network-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12620:1" rel="noopener">China United Network (600050 CH)</a> is, for all intent and purpose, a pseudo-A to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-unicom-hong-kong-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1016:1" rel="noopener">China Unicom (762 HK)</a>. Go long Unicom, short United due to Unicom's significantly cheaper valuation.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhejiang-expressway-co-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2178:1" rel="noopener">Zhejiang Expressway (576 HK)</a> has had a stonking run since its rights issue. Look to unwind this set-up and take the other side: short Expressway, long <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zheshang-securities-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29981:1" rel="noopener">Zheshang Securities (601878 CH)</a>.
</li>
</ul>



Dai Ichi Life (8750 JP) has the wherewithal, and probably the synergies to make a bump for Benefit One (2412 JP) work. M3 is clearly not in the driver's seat.

China United Network (600050 CH) is, for all intent and purpose, a pseudo-A to China Unicom (762 HK). Go long Unicom, short United due to Unicom's significantly cheaper valuation.

Zhejiang Expressway (576 HK) has had a stonking run since its rights issue. Look to unwind this set-up and take the other side: short Expressway, long Zheshang Securities (601878 CH).



Last Week in Event SPACE: Benefit One, China Unicom, Zhejiang Expressway/ Zheshang Sec, Hollysys

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/posco-dx-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5198:1" rel="noopener">Posco DX (022100 KS)</a> continues to drop following its section transfer from the KOSDAQ market to the KOSPI market. Short interest in the stock nearly halved in December.</li>
<li>There were big net inflows to China ETFs with creations in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-inde" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">CSI 300 Index</a> ETFs and redemptions in ETFs tracking the CSI 500 Index and CSI 1000 Index.</li>
<li>Creations continued in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-msci-emerging-markets-223f5da3-7054-4e4f-bc55-b7f0852c2581" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31998:1" rel="noopener">iShares Emerging Markets ex China (EMXC US)</a> ETF with units outstanding reaching a new high.</li>
</ul>



Posco DX (022100 KS) continues to drop following its section transfer from the KOSDAQ market to the KOSPI market. Short interest in the stock nearly halved in December.
There were big net inflows to China ETFs with creations in CSI 300 Index ETFs and redemptions in ETFs tracking the CSI 500 Index and CSI 1000 Index.
Creations continued in the iShares Emerging Markets ex China (EMXC US) ETF with units outstanding reaching a new high.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCEI, HSCI, KRX New Deal, NIFTY50, NEXT50, CNXBANK

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhongsheng-group-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10573:1" rel="noopener">Zhongsheng Group (881 HK)</a> pops up as a potential deletion yet again and a much lower rank raises the probability of deletion to just short of a near certainty.</li>
<li>With <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beigene-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27352:1" rel="noopener">BeiGene (6160 HK)</a> failing the Velocity Test for Tradeable Indexes, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhongsheng-group-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10573:1" rel="noopener">Zhongsheng Group (881 HK)</a>'s deletion from the index should result in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-unicom-hong-kong-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1016:1" rel="noopener">China Unicom Hong Kong (762 HK)</a>'s inclusion. </li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 1.47% resulting in a one-way trade of HK$946m. Passives will need to trade over 2.5x ADV on both stocks.</li>
</ul>



Zhongsheng Group (881 HK) pops up as a potential deletion yet again and a much lower rank raises the probability of deletion to just short of a near certainty.
With BeiGene (6160 HK) failing the Velocity Test for Tradeable Indexes, Zhongsheng Group (881 HK)'s deletion from the index should result in China Unicom Hong Kong (762 HK)'s inclusion. 
Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 1.47% resulting in a one-way trade of HK$946m. Passives will need to trade over 2.5x ADV on both stocks.


HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: Zhongsheng (881 HK) Should Go This Time

Hong Kong

China Unicom (Hong Kong) Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides telecommunications services in the People's Republic of China.  The Company's services include cellular, paging, long distance, data, and Internet services.

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China Unicom Hong Kong (762 HK)

Last Week in Event SPACE: Benefit One, Guoco, Outsourcing, Hang Lung, Hollysys, Dalek

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Quiddity HSCEI Mar 24 Rebalance: Same Rankings; Same Questions

The index changes for HSCEI index for the March 2024 index rebal will be announced on 16th February 2024. In this insight, I have discussed the...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Last Week in Event SPACE: Benefit One, China Unicom, Zhejiang Expressway/ Zheshang Sec, Hollysys

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCEI, HSCI, KRX New Deal, NIFTY50, NEXT50, CNXBANK

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: Zhongsheng (881 HK) Should Go This Time

Zhongsheng's rank has dropped a lot and index deletion appears to be a certainty. China Unicom is a potential add. There is over 2.5x ADV to trade...

Brian Freitas

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