Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Tongcheng Travel Holdings  / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Hang Seng Index, HSCEI, and HS Tech rebals were announced on 16 Feb. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/janaghan-jeyakumar-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:3173" rel="noopener">Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA</a> had expected GDS out, Tongcheng Travel in on HSTECH, along with the...</li>
<li>...deletion of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhongsheng-group-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10573:1" rel="noopener">Zhongsheng Group (881 HK)</a> in HSCEI, with a low conviction replacement of Zijin Mining, which turned out to be an add of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-unicom-hong-kong-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1016:1" rel="noopener">China Unicom Hong Kong (762 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>No changes to the main HSI Index, which means evolution is further delayed. Today was the day to recap the caps. Mar1 Flow estimates are included below for all three.</li>
</ul>


The Hang Seng Index, HSCEI, and HS Tech rebals were announced on 16 Feb. Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA had expected GDS out, Tongcheng Travel in on HSTECH, along with the...
...deletion of Zhongsheng Group (881 HK) in HSCEI, with a low conviction replacement of Zijin Mining, which turned out to be an add of China Unicom Hong Kong (762 HK). 
No changes to the main HSI Index, which means evolution is further delayed. Today was the day to recap the caps. Mar1 Flow estimates are included below for all three.


Final Flows for Hang Seng, HSCEI, HS Tech on 1 March Rebal

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Hygon Information Technology C / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX)</a> and STAR100 Index were announced post market close on Friday.</li>
<li>The coming week is a full one with capping cutoffs, review cutoffs, announcements and implementations apart from futures expiries.</li>
<li>With China open after Lunar New Year, the National Team is back pouring money into ETFs with the largest inflows to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-inde" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">CSI 300</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csi-smallcap-500-index-shang" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35347:1" rel="noopener">CSI 500</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chinext-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25483:1" rel="noopener">ChiNext</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">STAR50</a> indices.</li>
</ul>


The changes for the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) and STAR100 Index were announced post market close on Friday.
The coming week is a full one with capping cutoffs, review cutoffs, announcements and implementations apart from futures expiries.
With China open after Lunar New Year, the National Team is back pouring money into ETFs with the largest inflows to the CSI 300, CSI 500, ChiNext and STAR50 indices.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCEI, HSCI, HSTECH, HSIII, STTF, Top50, Div+, FXI, FnGuide

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Ethan Aw

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Xiaocaiyuan International Holding / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaocaiyuan-international-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40688:1" rel="noopener">Xiaocaiyuan International Holding (XCY HK)</a> is looking to raise up to US$200m in its upcoming HK IPO.</li>
<li>Xiaocaiyuan is a Chinese home-style cuisine restaurant operator. It prices its menus’ items to achieve average spending per consumer between RMB50 and RMB70 for its dine-in customers at its restaurants. </li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the company’s historical performance.</li>
</ul>



Xiaocaiyuan International Holding (XCY HK) is looking to raise up to US$200m in its upcoming HK IPO.
Xiaocaiyuan is a Chinese home-style cuisine restaurant operator. It prices its menus’ items to achieve average spending per consumer between RMB50 and RMB70 for its dine-in customers at its restaurants. 
In this note, we talk about the company’s historical performance.


Xiaocaiyuan International Holding Pre-IPO - Strong Network Expansion and Same Store Sales Growth

Hang Seng China Enterprises Index / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The open interest of the HSCEI 2024 dividend futures is less than half that of the HSCEI 2023 and HSCEI 2022 open interest at the same time of the year.</li>
<li>Market volatility and the fallout of the losses faced by Korean investors (and the scrutiny of Korean ELS-issuing banks) are among the primary reasons for the low open interest.</li>
<li>Our fair value for the HSCEI 2024 dividend futures is higher than the current market but there is a lot of sensitivity to bank dividends and special dividends.</li>
</ul>


The open interest of the HSCEI 2024 dividend futures is less than half that of the HSCEI 2023 and HSCEI 2022 open interest at the same time of the year.
Market volatility and the fallout of the losses faced by Korean investors (and the scrutiny of Korean ELS-issuing banks) are among the primary reasons for the low open interest.
Our fair value for the HSCEI 2024 dividend futures is higher than the current market but there is a lot of sensitivity to bank dividends and special dividends.


HSCEI Dividend Futures: Shrinking OI; Fair Value Estimates Show Upside

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

<ul>
<li>The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 "Mainland China" securities listed in Hong Kong.</li>
<li>The index changes for HSCEI index for the March 2024 index rebal event will be announced on 16th February 2024. </li>
<li>In this insight, I have shown how my flow expectations have changed since I published my last HSCEI insight on 6th December 2023.</li>
</ul>


The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 "Mainland China" securities listed in Hong Kong.
The index changes for HSCEI index for the March 2024 index rebal event will be announced on 16th February 2024. 
In this insight, I have shown how my flow expectations have changed since I published my last HSCEI insight on 6th December 2023.


Quiddity HSCEI Mar 24 Flow Expectations: Zhongsheng (881 HK) Downtrend Could Continue

Hong Kong

China Unicom (Hong Kong) Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides telecommunications services in the People's Republic of China.  The Company's services include cellular, paging, long distance, data, and Internet services.

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China Unicom Hong Kong (762 HK)

Final Flows for Hang Seng, HSCEI, HS Tech on 1 March Rebal

The Final flows for the Hang Seng March 2024 index rebalances are set based off the close of 27 February. One large change (Li Auto was expected to...

Travis Lundy

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCEI, HSCI, HSTECH, HSIII, STTF, Top50, Div+, FXI, FnGuide

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

Xiaocaiyuan International Holding Pre-IPO - Strong Network Expansion and Same Store Sales Growth

Xiaocaiyuan International Holding (XCY HK) is looking to raise up to US$200m in its upcoming HK IPO. In this note, we talk about the company’s...

Ethan Aw

HSCEI Dividend Futures: Shrinking OI; Fair Value Estimates Show Upside

We see the HSCEI 2024 div futures slightly underpriced with the potential for more upside. There are risks to the trade, mainly from the banks and...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity HSCEI Mar 24 Flow Expectations: Zhongsheng (881 HK) Downtrend Could Continue

I estimate one-way flow to be US$235mn which translates to a turnover of ~2%. However, these estimates are based on the low-conviction assumption...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

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