Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Capital Markets

Guangzhou Xiao Noodles Catering Management / Equity Capital Markets

Guangzhou Xiao Noodles Catering Management

<ul>
<li>Guangzhou Xiao Noodles Catering Management (XNC HK) launched its Hongkong IPO aiming to raise up to HK$686M. The company plans to sell 97.4M shares at HK$5.64-$7.04 per share.</li>
<li>Xiao Noodles are a Chinese noodle restaurants operator in China. They operate the Xiao Noodles brand in the Chinese Mainland and Hong Kong SAR.</li>
<li>The growth outlook quite justifies the incremental valuation. We think Xiao Noodles issue is attractively priced and investors can surely look to have a share in this secular growth story.</li>
</ul>


Guangzhou Xiao Noodles Catering Management (XNC HK) launched its Hongkong IPO aiming to raise up to HK$686M. The company plans to sell 97.4M shares at HK$5.64-$7.04 per share.
Xiao Noodles are a Chinese noodle restaurants operator in China. They operate the Xiao Noodles brand in the Chinese Mainland and Hong Kong SAR.
The growth outlook quite justifies the incremental valuation. We think Xiao Noodles issue is attractively priced and investors can surely look to have a share in this secular growth story.


Xiao Noodles (XNC HK) IPO: Volume Growth Play Make This Noodles Joint Savoury Enough

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

<ul>
<li>Xiao Noodles’ advantage doesn't come from a single product, but from a set of replicable systematic capabilities.However, investors are concerned growth is driven by capital rather than endogenous healthy growth.</li>
<li>Valuation would be lower than those mature brands that have proven profitability in the short term, but would be higher than the companies that are still exploring profit paths.</li>
<li>Comfortable valuation could be P/E of 15-20x, which indicates arbitrage space. But in long term, business model will be difficult to sustain if there’s no breakthrough in profit margin performance.  </li>
</ul>


Xiao Noodles’ advantage doesn't come from a single product, but from a set of replicable systematic capabilities.However, investors are concerned growth is driven by capital rather than endogenous healthy growth.
Valuation would be lower than those mature brands that have proven profitability in the short term, but would be higher than the companies that are still exploring profit paths.
Comfortable valuation could be P/E of 15-20x, which indicates arbitrage space. But in long term, business model will be difficult to sustain if there’s no breakthrough in profit margin performance.  


Pre-IPO Guangzhou Xiao Noodles Catering Management (PHIP Updates) - Some Points Worth the Attention

<ul>
<li>Although the revenue is growing, net profit margin is low, which is due to Xiao Noodles’ operational model, high costs, products and brand positioning. Key performance indicators declined in 2024.</li>
<li>If competition becomes increasingly fierce and Xiao Noodles’ price reduction strategy continues, the investment return period would be longer, which will affect the Company's future expansion plans and performance growth.</li>
<li>Based on our forecast, pre-IPO valuation of RMB3 billion is expensive. If Xiao Noodles is unable to reverse the trend of declining performance, it will face valuation discounts after IPO.</li>
</ul>


Although the revenue is growing, net profit margin is low, which is due to Xiao Noodles’ operational model, high costs, products and brand positioning. Key performance indicators declined in 2024.
If competition becomes increasingly fierce and Xiao Noodles’ price reduction strategy continues, the investment return period would be longer, which will affect the Company's future expansion plans and performance growth.
Based on our forecast, pre-IPO valuation of RMB3 billion is expensive. If Xiao Noodles is unable to reverse the trend of declining performance, it will face valuation discounts after IPO.


Pre-IPO Guangzhou Xiao Noodles Catering Management - Pain Points in Operation Mode and Profit Margin

<ul>
<li>The decline in Green Tea’s performance in 2024 cannot be solely attributed to external factors such as economic downturn and the decline in consumption. There are deeper reasons behind it. </li>
<li>The growth is mainly contributed by delivery service. However, commission fee is high and average spending per order is lower than dine-in services.So delivery service has limited contribution to profits.</li>
<li>The aggressive expansion of restaurants may further dilute the performance of individual restaurant. We shared our three-year forecast.Valuation of Green Tea could be lower than Xiaocaiyuan and the industry average</li>
</ul>


The decline in Green Tea’s performance in 2024 cannot be solely attributed to external factors such as economic downturn and the decline in consumption. There are deeper reasons behind it. 
The growth is mainly contributed by delivery service. However, commission fee is high and average spending per order is lower than dine-in services.So delivery service has limited contribution to profits.
The aggressive expansion of restaurants may further dilute the performance of individual restaurant. We shared our three-year forecast.Valuation of Green Tea could be lower than Xiaocaiyuan and the industry average


Pre-IPO Green Tea Group (PHIP Updates) - Some Points Worth the Attention

<ul>
<li>The HK$7.19/share IPO pricing is attractive. The valuation safety margin reserved for the IPO of Green Tea may be mainly due to the management's consideration of attracting long-term funds.</li>
<li>If the market sentiment is positive, combined with conservative IPO pricing, Green Tea would still perform well after listing. For example, valuation has the potential to recover to 15x P/E.</li>
<li>However, when scale expansion fails to bring efficiency improvement,“cracks” appear in the core logic of the capital story.So, taking profits when Green Tea's valuation exceeds Xiaocaiyuan is a good option.  </li>
</ul>


The HK$7.19/share IPO pricing is attractive. The valuation safety margin reserved for the IPO of Green Tea may be mainly due to the management's consideration of attracting long-term funds.
If the market sentiment is positive, combined with conservative IPO pricing, Green Tea would still perform well after listing. For example, valuation has the potential to recover to 15x P/E.
However, when scale expansion fails to bring efficiency improvement,“cracks” appear in the core logic of the capital story.So, taking profits when Green Tea's valuation exceeds Xiaocaiyuan is a good option.  


Pre-IPO Green Tea Group - Thoughts on IPO Pricing and Valuation Outlook

China

Xiaocaiyuan International Holding (XCY HK)

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Xiaocaiyuan International Holding (XCY HK)

Xiao Noodles (XNC HK) IPO: Volume Growth Play Make This Noodles Joint Savoury Enough

Xiao Noodles (XNC HK) launches Hong Kong IPO, aiming to raise up to HK$686M by selling 97.4M shares at HK$5.64-$7.04 each. Investors can subscribe...

Tina Banerjee

Pre-IPO Guangzhou Xiao Noodles Catering Management (PHIP Updates) - Some Points Worth the Attention

Xiao Noodles' growth driven by capital raise concerns for investors about sustainability/profitability ahead, despite replicable capabilities....

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO Guangzhou Xiao Noodles Catering Management - Pain Points in Operation Mode and Profit Margin

Xiao Noodles faces challenges with low profit margins, declining performance, and potential valuation discounts post-IPO if trends continue....

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO Green Tea Group (PHIP Updates) - Some Points Worth the Attention

The IPO pricing is attractive, but this could be the only advantage. As analyzed, Green Tea''s growth is hindered and its fundamentals are weak....

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO Green Tea Group - Thoughts on IPO Pricing and Valuation Outlook

Green Tea's IPO pricing shows good valuation safety margin. When scale expansion fail to bring efficiency improvement,“cracks” appear in the core...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Xiao Noodles (XNC HK) IPO: Volume Growth Play Make This Noodles Joint Savoury Enough

Xiao Noodles (XNC HK) launches Hong Kong IPO, aiming to raise up to HK$686M by selling 97.4M shares at HK$5.64-$7.04 each. Investors can subscribe...

Tina Banerjee

Pre-IPO Guangzhou Xiao Noodles Catering Management (PHIP Updates) - Some Points Worth the Attention

​Xiao Noodles' growth driven by capital raise concerns for investors about sustainability/profitability ahead, despite replicable capabilities....

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO Guangzhou Xiao Noodles Catering Management - Pain Points in Operation Mode and Profit Margin

​Xiao Noodles faces challenges with low profit margins, declining performance, and potential valuation discounts post-IPO if trends continue....

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO Green Tea Group (PHIP Updates) - Some Points Worth the Attention

The IPO pricing is attractive, but this could be the only advantage. As analyzed, Green Tea''s growth is hindered and its fundamentals are weak....

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO Green Tea Group - Thoughts on IPO Pricing and Valuation Outlook

​Green Tea's IPO pricing shows good valuation safety margin. When scale expansion fail to bring efficiency improvement,“cracks” appear in the core...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Xiao Noodles' growth driven by capital raise concerns for investors about sustainability/profitability ahead, despite replicable capabilities....

Xiao Noodles faces challenges with low profit margins, declining performance, and potential valuation discounts post-IPO if trends continue....

Green Tea's IPO pricing shows good valuation safety margin. When scale expansion fail to bring efficiency improvement,“cracks” appear in the core...