Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Back on the 6th December 2023, packaging play <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cpmc-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10427:1" rel="noopener">CPMC Holdings (906 HK)</a> announced a pre-conditional Offer of $6.87/share, in cash, from SASAC/NCSSF-backed Champion.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2024/0730/2024073000041.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Offer Document</a> is now out. This is not a Composite Document. A "Response Document" is expected in two weeks, which will include the IFA opinion. </li>
<li>All the above is moot. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/org-technology-co-ltd-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17510:1" rel="noopener">ORG Technology Co., Ltd. A (002701 CH)</a>'s superior HK$7.21/share Offer is currently navigating the necessary regulatory approvals. With irrevocables, ORG has 46.44% in the bag.</li>
</ul>


Back on the 6th December 2023, packaging play CPMC Holdings (906 HK) announced a pre-conditional Offer of $6.87/share, in cash, from SASAC/NCSSF-backed Champion.
The Offer Document is now out. This is not a Composite Document. A "Response Document" is expected in two weeks, which will include the IFA opinion. 
All the above is moot. ORG Technology Co., Ltd. A (002701 CH)'s superior HK$7.21/share Offer is currently navigating the necessary regulatory approvals. With irrevocables, ORG has 46.44% in the bag.


CPMC (906 HK): Champion's Offer Now Open. But All Eyes On ORG's Tilt

<ul>
<li>Expect True Wind to walk away rather than raising their price further for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sun-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10803:1" rel="noopener">Sun Corp (6736 JP)</a>. They'd need to pay ¥5,500-5,800 to dislodge a large chunk. And they won't.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amorepacific-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12179:1" rel="noopener">Amorepacific Group (002790 KS)</a> plumbs new discount lows as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amorepacific-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20854:1" rel="noopener">Amorepacific Corp (090430 KS) </a> gets a boost from Amazon Prime Day.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canon-marketing-japan-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3866:1" rel="noopener">Canon Marketing Japan (8060 JP)</a> is still significantly under-levered. That means the stock price will generically not be that volatile. That generally means one should buy dips and sell pops.</li>
</ul>


Expect True Wind to walk away rather than raising their price further for Sun Corp (6736 JP). They'd need to pay ¥5,500-5,800 to dislodge a large chunk. And they won't.

Amorepacific Group (002790 KS) plumbs new discount lows as Amorepacific Corp (090430 KS)  gets a boost from Amazon Prime Day.

Canon Marketing Japan (8060 JP) is still significantly under-levered. That means the stock price will generically not be that volatile. That generally means one should buy dips and sell pops.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Sun Corp, Amorepacific, Canon Marketing, Jeisys Medical

<ul>
<li>I tally 47 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal. </li>
<li>Two new deals discussed this week on Smartkarma: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/furukawa-battery-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6513:1" rel="noopener">Furukawa Battery (6937 JP)</a>'s TOB, and the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arvida-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14485:1" rel="noopener">Arvida (ARV NZ)</a>. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/warehouse-group-limited-the" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1721:1" rel="noopener">Warehouse Group Limited (WHS NZ)</a>'s co-founder is kicking tyres. </li>
<li>Key updates took place on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pacific-smiles-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2891:1" rel="noopener">Pacific Smiles (PSQ AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canvest-environmental-protection-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:100:1" rel="noopener">Canvest Environmental Protection Group (1381 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cpmc-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10427:1" rel="noopener">CPMC Holdings (906 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jeisys-medical-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36766:1" rel="noopener">Jeisys Medical (287410 KS)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hollysys-automation-technologies" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26078:1" rel="noopener">Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 47 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal. 
Two new deals discussed this week on Smartkarma: Furukawa Battery (6937 JP)'s TOB, and the Arvida (ARV NZ). Warehouse Group Limited (WHS NZ)'s co-founder is kicking tyres. 
Key updates took place on Pacific Smiles (PSQ AU), Canvest Environmental Protection Group (1381 HK), CPMC Holdings (906 HK), Jeisys Medical (287410 KS), and Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Furukawa Battery, Arvida, Warehouse Group, Pacific Smiles, Canvest, Jeisys

Canvest Environmental Protection Group / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On the 22 July, waste-to-energy play <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canvest-environmental-protection-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:100:1" rel="noopener">Canvest Environmental Protection  (1381 HK)</a> announced a pre-conditional Offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grandblue-environment-co-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17887:1" rel="noopener">Grandblue Environment (600323 CH)</a> at $4.90/share (best &amp; final), by way of a Scheme.</li>
<li>Terms mirror that announced on the 7th July. Best Approach (54.75% of shares out) is seeking to roll over 7.23%. Pre-cons include the usual regulators: MoC, NDRC, SAMR and SAFE.</li>
<li>Any new dividends paid will be netted. 4.478% blocking stake. Pre-IPO investor AEP Green Power, has 5.67%. Best Approach is required to abstain from voting on the Scheme and rollover.</li>
</ul>


On the 22 July, waste-to-energy play Canvest Environmental Protection  (1381 HK) announced a pre-conditional Offer from Grandblue Environment (600323 CH) at $4.90/share (best &amp; final), by way of a Scheme.
Terms mirror that announced on the 7th July. Best Approach (54.75% of shares out) is seeking to roll over 7.23%. Pre-cons include the usual regulators: MoC, NDRC, SAMR and SAFE.
Any new dividends paid will be netted. 4.478% blocking stake. Pre-IPO investor AEP Green Power, has 5.67%. Best Approach is required to abstain from voting on the Scheme and rollover.


Canvest (1381 HK): Trading Wide To Grandblue's Offer

CK Infrastructure Holdings / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gulf-energy-development-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26038:1" rel="noopener">Gulf Energy (GULF TB)</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intouch-holdings-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17638:1" rel="noopener">Intouch (INTUCH TB)</a> merger is an opportunistic, bullying method designed to have GULF shareholders buy INTUCH and therefore <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advanced-info-service-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:947:1" rel="noopener">AIS (ADVANC TB)</a> at too low a price. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ck-infrastructure-holdings-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:163:1" rel="noopener">CK Infrastructure Holdings (1038 HK)</a>'s interest in a possible London listing coincides with the LSE undergoing a listing regime change.</li>
<li>Management continue to creep their stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhongsheng-group-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10573:1" rel="noopener">Zhongsheng Group (881 HK)</a>, and now hold a shade under 50%. </li>
</ul>


The Gulf Energy (GULF TB)/Intouch (INTUCH TB) merger is an opportunistic, bullying method designed to have GULF shareholders buy INTUCH and therefore AIS (ADVANC TB) at too low a price. 

CK Infrastructure Holdings (1038 HK)'s interest in a possible London listing coincides with the LSE undergoing a listing regime change.
Management continue to creep their stake in Zhongsheng Group (881 HK), and now hold a shade under 50%. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: Gulf Energy/Intouch, CK Infra, Zhongsheng, Thai Beverage, Fraser & Neave

Hong Kong

China Traditional Chinese Medicine Co. Limited, through its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells medicine and pharmaceutical products in China.

China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK)

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China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK)

CPMC (906 HK): Champion's Offer Now Open. But All Eyes On ORG's Tilt

Assuming mid-Jan 2025 payment, this is trading way too tight. Especially when second-guessing the timeline for securing reg approvals involving a...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: Sun Corp, Amorepacific, Canon Marketing, Jeisys Medical

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Furukawa Battery, Arvida, Warehouse Group, Pacific Smiles, Canvest, Jeisys

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Canvest (1381 HK): Trading Wide To Grandblue's Offer

Assuming late-December payment, this is trading at a gross/annualised spread of 12.1%/31.6%. That looks too wide. I'd buy here, and on any weakness.

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: Gulf Energy/Intouch, CK Infra, Zhongsheng, Thai Beverage, Fraser & Neave

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

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