Global Mobility/Transport, Equity Long-Short

Mohshin Aziz

Equity Bottom-Up

China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-tourism-group-duty-free-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12278:1" rel="noopener">China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd (601888 CH) </a> (CTG) share price has plunged by 63% despite solid 9M23 profits growth and cash flushed balance sheet </li>
<li>Underlying fundamentals is solid, Chinese people still buying duty free goods, albeit tilting towards value than decadence purchases </li>
<li>CTG is cheap relative to its own history on all valuation metrics (PE, P/Book, P/FCF) and many technical indicators suggest it is in OVERSOLD territory </li>
</ul>



China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd (601888 CH)  (CTG) share price has plunged by 63% despite solid 9M23 profits growth and cash flushed balance sheet 
Underlying fundamentals is solid, Chinese people still buying duty free goods, albeit tilting towards value than decadence purchases 
CTG is cheap relative to its own history on all valuation metrics (PE, P/Book, P/FCF) and many technical indicators suggest it is in OVERSOLD territory 


China Tourism Group (601888 CH, BUY, TP: CNY106): How to Catch a Falling Knife

<ul>
<li>China stock market despair has brought down  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-tourism-group-duty-free-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12278:1" rel="noopener">China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd (601888 CH)</a> to its lowest forward valuation in the past ten years   </li>
<li>Poised for long-term growth, Chinese are buying albeit more prudently, government supportive on promoting domestic consumption, efficiency enhancements will lower cost and boost margins </li>
<li>Using the company's lowest recorded PE ratio in the past 10 years of 23.2x into FY24, we derive a target price of CNY106 (+21% UPSIDE)  </li>
</ul>


China stock market despair has brought down  China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd (601888 CH) to its lowest forward valuation in the past ten years   
Poised for long-term growth, Chinese are buying albeit more prudently, government supportive on promoting domestic consumption, efficiency enhancements will lower cost and boost margins 
Using the company's lowest recorded PE ratio in the past 10 years of 23.2x into FY24, we derive a target price of CNY106 (+21% UPSIDE)  


2024 High Conviction: China Tourism Group (601888 CH, BUY, TP:CNY106): See the Forest for the Trees

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

WuXi XDC Cayman  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wuxi-xdc-cayman-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39917:1" rel="noopener">WuXi XDC Cayman (1877628D HK)</a> priced its IPO at HK$20.60 per share to raise the gross proceeds of US$470 million. The shares will start trading tomorrow.</li>
<li>We previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/wuxi-xdc-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:116331" rel="noopener">WuXi XDC IPO: The Bull Case</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/wuxi-xdc-ipo-the-bear-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:116507" rel="noopener">WuXi XDC IPO: The Bear Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/wuxi-xdc-ipo-valuation-insights" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:116962" rel="noopener">WuXi XDC IPO: Valuation Insights</a>.</li>
<li>The market sentiment on the sector has modestly weakened. However, the IPO price is attractive, with our DCF valuation of HK$22.89 per share, 11.1% above the IPO price.</li>
</ul>



WuXi XDC Cayman (1877628D HK) priced its IPO at HK$20.60 per share to raise the gross proceeds of US$470 million. The shares will start trading tomorrow.
We previously discussed the IPO in WuXi XDC IPO: The Bull Case, WuXi XDC IPO: The Bear Case and WuXi XDC IPO: Valuation Insights.
The market sentiment on the sector has modestly weakened. However, the IPO price is attractive, with our DCF valuation of HK$22.89 per share, 11.1% above the IPO price.


Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Guangzhou Automobile Group / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The New and Better (10 weeks old) A-H Monitor has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.</li>
<li>Absolutely STONKING performance this past week - +1.62% Friday to Friday across 42 trades. Positive performance in every sector. Portfolio at new high. Southbound inflows. BigCapHighDiv SOE outflows.</li>
<li>Short sales this week now need 100% in the account for hedge funds. And the MSS claims some are short-selling or talking bearishly on stocks for political reasons.</li>
</ul>


The New and Better (10 weeks old) A-H Monitor has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.
Absolutely STONKING performance this past week - +1.62% Friday to Friday across 42 trades. Positive performance in every sector. Portfolio at new high. Southbound inflows. BigCapHighDiv SOE outflows.
Short sales this week now need 100% in the account for hedge funds. And the MSS claims some are short-selling or talking bearishly on stocks for political reasons.


A/H Premium Tracker (To 3 Nov): Volatility Off, Spreads Jumpy, Short Sellers a NatSec Concern?

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Midea Group Co Ltd A / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Two of the biggest deals in the Hong Kong pipeline are A/H listings for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maanshan-dingtai-rare-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4128:1" rel="noopener">S.F. Holding (002352 CH)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/midea-group-co-ltd-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16185:1" rel="noopener">Midea Group (000333 CH)</a>, both looking to raise around US$3bn.</li>
<li>Prior to the deals going live, we had a quick look at the A/H premium, subscription and past performance of some of the earlier A/H listings.</li>
<li>Overall, most of the recent A/H listings haven’t done much in the near term.</li>
</ul>


Two of the biggest deals in the Hong Kong pipeline are A/H listings for S.F. Holding (002352 CH) and Midea Group (000333 CH), both looking to raise around US$3bn.
Prior to the deals going live, we had a quick look at the A/H premium, subscription and past performance of some of the earlier A/H listings.
Overall, most of the recent A/H listings haven’t done much in the near term.


Past A/H Listings Performance - Have Been a Mixed Bag

China

China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited engages in sales of duty free goods and tax goods. The Company sells tobacco, wine and spirits, perfume, cosmetics, fashion and accessories, watches, jewelry, food, luggage products,and other products. China Tourism Group Duty Free also engages in investment and development of tourism destination commercial complexes.

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China Tourism Group Duty Free (1880 HK)

China Tourism Group (601888 CH, BUY, TP: CNY106): How to Catch a Falling Knife

China Tourism Group underperformed CSI 300 despite stellar profits and equally positive outlook. It is deemed a falling knife, but we see great...

Mohshin Aziz

2024 High Conviction: China Tourism Group (601888 CH, BUY, TP:CNY106): See the Forest for the Trees

China's stock market decline has led to a record low valuation for China Tourism Group, but long-term growth potential and government support make...

Mohshin Aziz

WuXi XDC IPO: Trading Debut

The market sentiment on the sector has modestly weakened. However, the IPO price is attractive, with our DCF valuation of HK$22.89 per share, 11.1%...

Arun George

A/H Premium Tracker (To 3 Nov): Volatility Off, Spreads Jumpy, Short Sellers a NatSec Concern?

The Quiddity A/H Premium Monitor continues onward and upward. Stonking 13th week. Now at new highs. +3.8% perf for the three months. 5 new trades...

Travis Lundy

Past A/H Listings Performance - Have Been a Mixed Bag

Two of the biggest deals in the Hong Kong pipeline are A/H listings for S.F. Holding (002352 CH) and Midea Group (000333 CH). In this note, we have...

Sumeet Singh

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

China Tourism Group (601888 CH, BUY, TP: CNY106): How to Catch a Falling Knife

​China Tourism Group underperformed CSI 300 despite stellar profits and equally positive outlook. It is deemed a falling knife, but we see great...

Mohshin Aziz

2024 High Conviction: China Tourism Group (601888 CH, BUY, TP:CNY106): See the Forest for the Trees

​China's stock market decline has led to a record low valuation for China Tourism Group, but long-term growth potential and government support make...

Mohshin Aziz

WuXi XDC IPO: Trading Debut

The market sentiment on the sector has modestly weakened. However, the IPO price is attractive, with our DCF valuation of HK$22.89 per share, 11.1%...

Arun George

A/H Premium Tracker (To 3 Nov): Volatility Off, Spreads Jumpy, Short Sellers a NatSec Concern?

The Quiddity A/H Premium Monitor continues onward and upward. Stonking 13th week. Now at new highs. +3.8% perf for the three months. 5 new trades...

Travis Lundy

Past A/H Listings Performance - Have Been a Mixed Bag

Two of the biggest deals in the Hong Kong pipeline are A/H listings for S.F. Holding (002352 CH) and Midea Group (000333 CH). In this note, we have...

Sumeet Singh

China Tourism Group underperformed CSI 300 despite stellar profits and equally positive outlook. It is deemed a falling knife, but we see great...

China's stock market decline has led to a record low valuation for China Tourism Group, but long-term growth potential and government support make...