Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

Brilliance China Automotive / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>We see 44 potential adds (including plenty of new listings) and 19 potential deletes (on market cap, liquidity and suspension) for the Hang Seng Composite Index in March.</li>
<li>We expect 37 stocks to be added to Southbound Stock Connect following the rebalance while 37 stocks could be deleted from the trading link and become Sell-only. </li>
<li>There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.</li>
</ul>


We see 44 potential adds (including plenty of new listings) and 19 potential deletes (on market cap, liquidity and suspension) for the Hang Seng Composite Index in March.
We expect 37 stocks to be added to Southbound Stock Connect following the rebalance while 37 stocks could be deleted from the trading link and become Sell-only. 
There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.


HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: A Lot of Change

<ul>
<li>We see 3 potential adds for the HSCI in December. We also see 26 potential adds and 16 potential deletes for the index in March.</li>
<li>Following the March rebalance, we see 22 potential inclusions to Stock Connect while we expect 37 stocks to be removed from the link.</li>
<li>Some of the potential deletions/ Stock Connect drops have large Southbound holdings and some of these positions could be pared back over the next few months.</li>
</ul>


We see 3 potential adds for the HSCI in December. We also see 26 potential adds and 16 potential deletes for the index in March.
Following the March rebalance, we see 22 potential inclusions to Stock Connect while we expect 37 stocks to be removed from the link.
Some of the potential deletions/ Stock Connect drops have large Southbound holdings and some of these positions could be pared back over the next few months.


HSCI Index Rebalance and Stock Connect: Changes at the Margins

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of October 28th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight inflows into Tencent Holding, Meituan, Wuxi Biologics, Kuaishou.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of October 28th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight inflows into Tencent Holding, Meituan, Wuxi Biologics, Kuaishou.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (Oct 28th): Tencent, Meituan, Wuxi Biologics, Kuaishou

Zhejiang Leapmotor Technologie / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>We see three new listings as potential inclusions to the HSCI in December. One is already in Stock Connect, one will be added to Stock Connect while one will not.</li>
<li>Given the large market moves, there will be many changes to the HSCI in March 2023. Quite a few stocks could remain in the HSCI but drop out of Connect.</li>
<li>Some of the potential deletions/ Stock Connect drops have large Southbound holdings and some of these positions could be pared back over the next few months.</li>
</ul>


We see three new listings as potential inclusions to the HSCI in December. One is already in Stock Connect, one will be added to Stock Connect while one will not.
Given the large market moves, there will be many changes to the HSCI in March 2023. Quite a few stocks could remain in the HSCI but drop out of Connect.
Some of the potential deletions/ Stock Connect drops have large Southbound holdings and some of these positions could be pared back over the next few months.


HSCI Index Rebalance and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in December & March (There's a Lot!)

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

<div><ul><li>FY22E retail gas sales volume is expected to maintain 6-8% YoY growth, while 2H22 gas dollar margin tends to improve.</li><li>Gas connection business may slightly improve in 2H22; value-added business continued its robust growth momentum.</li><li>TLG actively develops new energy business leveraging its advanced residential user resources and regional lighting conditions.</li></ul></div>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FY22E retail gas sales volume is expected to maintain 6-8% YoY growth, while 2H22 gas dollar margin tends to improve.Gas connection business may slightly improve in 2H22; value-added business continued its robust growth momentum.TLG actively develops new energy business leveraging its advanced residential user resources and regional lighting conditions.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Tian Lun Gas (1600 HK) – Expect 2H22 result to improve, yet maintain a prudent outlook

China

China Tian Lun Gas Holdings Ltd. processes and distributes natural gas through urban pipelines.  The Company operates in Henan Province, China.  China Tian Lun Gas also operates a compressed natural gas filling station.

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China Tian Lun Gas (1600 HK)

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: A Lot of Change

We forecast 44 adds/19 deletes for the HSCI in March leading to 37 adds/deletes for Southbound Stock Connect. There could be more Connect changes...

Brian Freitas

HSCI Index Rebalance and Stock Connect: Changes at the Margins

We see 3 inclusions for the index in Dec, and then 26 adds/16 deletions in March. Following the March rebal, we see 22 adds/37 deletions for Stock...

Brian Freitas

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Oct 28th): Tencent, Meituan, Wuxi Biologics, Kuaishou

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for Tencent, Meituan, Wuxi Biologics, Kuaishou.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HSCI Index Rebalance and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in December & March (There's a Lot!)

There could be 3 adds in December while there will be MANY more changes in March. The adds should outnumber the deletes, but there will be many...

Brian Freitas

Tian Lun Gas (1600 HK) – Expect 2H22 result to improve, yet maintain a prudent outlook

TLG actively develops new energy business leveraging its advanced residential user resources and regional lighting conditions.

CMB International

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