HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-longyuan-power-group-corp-ltd-49b9d808-e8c9-4049-a85a-5380de9f21ad" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35558:1" rel="noopener"></a>YTD, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-longyuan-power-group-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14215:1" rel="noopener">China Longyuan Power (916 HK)</a> has seen its share price weak, but we believe focus should not be on the poor FY22 result and the moderate 1Q23 generation growth.</li>
<li>Based on 5.5-6.5GW planned capacity expansion in FY23, this will mean a solid growth of 17.7-20.9% YoY. Coupled with efficiency improvement, we expect a sharp rebound in FY23 profit.</li>
<li>With impairment on Ukraine mostly made and reversal of exchange and trading losses, there will be a big swing in bottom line. We welcome the improvement in cash flow too.</li>
</ul>



YTD, China Longyuan Power (916 HK) has seen its share price weak, but we believe focus should not be on the poor FY22 result and the moderate 1Q23 generation growth.
Based on 5.5-6.5GW planned capacity expansion in FY23, this will mean a solid growth of 17.7-20.9% YoY. Coupled with efficiency improvement, we expect a sharp rebound in FY23 profit.
With impairment on Ukraine mostly made and reversal of exchange and trading losses, there will be a big swing in bottom line. We welcome the improvement in cash flow too.


China Longyuan (916 HK): We Stay on the Bull Camp

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-longyuan-power-group-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14215:1" rel="noopener">China Longyuan Power Group Corp (916 HK)</a> is expected to see an exciting year on the back of faster capacity growth, increase in utilisation hours and higher average tariff.</li>
<li>Potential asset injection from its parent CHN Energy remains a wild card. It may grow its capacity by an average of 30% over the next three years if materialises.</li>
<li>Lower funding costs and the return to A-share are positive to Longyuan's expansion. We think consensus forecasts for next 2 years are too low and represent potential upside surprises.</li>
</ul>



China Longyuan Power Group Corp (916 HK) is expected to see an exciting year on the back of faster capacity growth, increase in utilisation hours and higher average tariff.
Potential asset injection from its parent CHN Energy remains a wild card. It may grow its capacity by an average of 30% over the next three years if materialises.
Lower funding costs and the return to A-share are positive to Longyuan's expansion. We think consensus forecasts for next 2 years are too low and represent potential upside surprises.


China Longyuan (916 HK): It Deserves the Premium

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

Shandong Hi-Speed New Energy G / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shandong-hi-speed-new-energy-g" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6927:1" rel="noopener">Shandong Hi-Speed New Energy G (1250 HK)</a> entered a trading halt based on the Takeovers and Mergers Code. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shandong-hi-speed-holdings-gro" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10356:1" rel="noopener">Shandong Hi-Speed Holdings Gro (412 HK)</a> also entered a trading halt. </li>
<li>It is likely that SDHS Group, representing 43.45% of outstanding shares, is seeking to privatise SDHS New Energy through a Cayman scheme. </li>
<li>Beijing Enterprises Group and CITIC Securities hold potentially blocking stakes and are likely seeking to exit. Our best guess is an offer with a 20%- 30% takeover premium.  </li>
</ul>



Shandong Hi-Speed New Energy G (1250 HK) entered a trading halt based on the Takeovers and Mergers Code. Shandong Hi-Speed Holdings Gro (412 HK) also entered a trading halt. 
It is likely that SDHS Group, representing 43.45% of outstanding shares, is seeking to privatise SDHS New Energy through a Cayman scheme. 
Beijing Enterprises Group and CITIC Securities hold potentially blocking stakes and are likely seeking to exit. Our best guess is an offer with a 20%- 30% takeover premium.  


Shandong Hi-Speed New Energy (1250 HK): Privatisation by Shandong Hi-Speed Holdings (412 HK)?

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>AI is poised to drive a large increase in power consumption on the mainland.  Data demand from generative AI necessitates more data centers and consequently more power.</li>
<li>China energy consumption is at the beginning of a super cycle as AI becomes integral to everyday corporate and eventually personal lives.</li>
<li>China's clean energy names will benefit from the China's energy strategy as its power needs from data centers surge.</li>
</ul>


AI is poised to drive a large increase in power consumption on the mainland.  Data demand from generative AI necessitates more data centers and consequently more power.
China energy consumption is at the beginning of a super cycle as AI becomes integral to everyday corporate and eventually personal lives.
China's clean energy names will benefit from the China's energy strategy as its power needs from data centers surge.


Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>The <em>Somewhat</em>-Brand-Spanking New (10 weeks old) A-H Monitor has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.</li>
<li>We used to do it. We brought it back better, with lots of cool interactive tables, and charts, heat maps, and comparative data. And 50 Trade Recommendations.</li>
<li>The last 10wks (since the start of the new Tracker and Portfolio 11 weeks ago) have seen net portfolio performance of +0.50%, +1.35%, +0.14%, +0.47%, +0.15%, +0.12%, -0.29%, -0.71%, -68%.</li>
</ul>


The Somewhat-Brand-Spanking New (10 weeks old) A-H Monitor has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.
We used to do it. We brought it back better, with lots of cool interactive tables, and charts, heat maps, and comparative data. And 50 Trade Recommendations.
The last 10wks (since the start of the new Tracker and Portfolio 11 weeks ago) have seen net portfolio performance of +0.50%, +1.35%, +0.14%, +0.47%, +0.15%, +0.12%, -0.29%, -0.71%, -68%.


Quiddity A/H Premium Tracker (To Oct20): Volatility Up Further, Wide Spreads Even Wider. Messy²

China

China Suntien Green Energy Corp Ltd operates a wind farm and a natural gas business. The Company intends to build wind power projects and develop natural gas projects throughout China.

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China Suntien Green Energy (956 HK)

China Longyuan (916 HK): We Stay on the Bull Camp

Capacity expansion of 17.7-20.9% YoY, coupled with efficiency improvement will mean sharp rebound in FY23 profit. Reduction in impairment and...

Osbert Tang, CFA

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Osbert Tang, CFA

Shandong Hi-Speed New Energy (1250 HK): Privatisation by Shandong Hi-Speed Holdings (412 HK)?

It is likely that SDHS Group, representing 43.45% of outstanding shares, is seeking to privatise SDHS New Energy through a Cayman scheme.

Arun George

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AI is creating an opportunity to benefit from the surge in power needs of China. Rapid growth in data centers to power AI will benefit China power...

David Mudd

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The Quiddity A/H Premium Tracker. Tables, Charts, Flows, Positions (both SB and NB). This week was AGAIN messy. Pairwise volatility is up. universe...

Travis Lundy

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