HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>We believe <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cpmc-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10427:1" rel="noopener">CPMC Holdings (906 HK)</a> is an attractive alternative consumption play given its exposure to the rise in demand for food, beverages and household chemical product packaging in China. It is among the top player in China's packaging manufacturing (1-piece cans, 2-piece cans, tinplate packaging and plastic containers) with prominent customer profile including Coca-Cola, Tsingtao, Carlsberg, Blue Moon, Feihe, Yili and Jiaduobao etc. </p><p>The combination of margin expansion, capacity growth and surging consumption demand, we expect CPMC to post a steady rising ROE. We expect special DPS payout on the receipt of Rmb1.5bn repurchase consideration from JDB settlement, and this will place its dividend yield at least at 7.8%. Its 8.9x PER and 0.69x P/B represent deep discounts to its customers (40x PER) and packaging peers (23.4x) which are unjustified in our view.</p>

We believe CPMC Holdings (906 HK) is an attractive alternative consumption play given its exposure to the rise in demand for food, beverages and household chemical product packaging in China. It is among the top player in China's packaging manufacturing (1-piece cans, 2-piece cans, tinplate packaging and plastic containers) with prominent customer profile including Coca-Cola, Tsingtao, Carlsberg, Blue Moon, Feihe, Yili and Jiaduobao etc. The combination of margin expansion, capacity growth and surging consumption demand, we expect CPMC to post a steady rising ROE. We expect special DPS payout on the receipt of Rmb1.5bn repurchase consideration from JDB settlement, and this will place its dividend yield at least at 7.8%. Its 8.9x PER and 0.69x P/B represent deep discounts to its customers (40x PER) and packaging peers (23.4x) which are unjustified in our view.

CPMC Holdings (906 HK): An Attractive Inexpensive Alternative Consumption Play

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

<p>At long last, Hang Seng Indexes (HSIL) has released the consultation paper on the "Proposal to enhance the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> as regards continuing to serve as the most representative and important benchmark of the Hong Kong stock market". Market participants have until 24 January to submit their views to the HSIL.</p><p>There are 5 main proposals in the consultation paper:</p><ol>
<li>Select constituents by industry group based on a target coverage for each industry group</li>
<li>Increase the number of constituents to between 65 to 80</li>
<li>Removal of the Minimum Listing History requirement for eligible candidates</li>
<li>Maintain a certain number of constituents classified as Hong Kong companies to sustain the level of representation of Hong Kong portion in the index</li>
<li>Lower the weighting cap of individual constituents from 10% to 8%, and increase the weighting cap of WVRs and Secondary Listings from 5% to 8%.</li>
</ol><p>The simulated one-way turnover of increasing the number of constituents to between 65-80 is estimated at 15-20% and HSIL proposes to implement the transition to the enhanced methodology within one year.</p><p>In this Insight, we look at the impact on the index from the proposed changes.</p>

At long last, Hang Seng Indexes (HSIL) has released the consultation paper on the "Proposal to enhance the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) as regards continuing to serve as the most representative and important benchmark of the Hong Kong stock market". Market participants have until 24 January to submit their views to the HSIL.There are 5 main proposals in the consultation paper:
Select constituents by industry group based on a target coverage for each industry group
Increase the number of constituents to between 65 to 80
Removal of the Minimum Listing History requirement for eligible candidates
Maintain a certain number of constituents classified as Hong Kong companies to sustain the level of representation of Hong Kong portion in the index
Lower the weighting cap of individual constituents from 10% to 8%, and increase the weighting cap of WVRs and Secondary Listings from 5% to 8%.
The simulated one-way turnover of increasing the number of constituents to between 65-80 is estimated at 15-20% and HSIL proposes to implement the transition to the enhanced methodology within one year.In this Insight, we look at the impact on the index from the proposed changes.

HSI Market Consultation - Wide Ranging Changes Proposed

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Tsingtao Brewery Co Ltd H / Equity Capital Markets

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fosun-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:433:1" rel="noopener">Fosun International (656 HK)</a> aims to raise up to US$303m via selling 2.3% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tsingtao-brewery-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1296:1" rel="noopener">Tsingtao Brewery Co Ltd H (168 HK)</a>.</p><p>This is not the first selldown by Fosun and probably won't be the last either. The previous two selldowns by Fosun had a mixed performance.</p>

Fosun International (656 HK) aims to raise up to US$303m via selling 2.3% of Tsingtao Brewery Co Ltd H (168 HK).This is not the first selldown by Fosun and probably won't be the last either. The previous two selldowns by Fosun had a mixed performance.

Tsingtao Brewery Placement - Friday Evening Is Always a Good Time for a Beer, Maybe Not This One

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-beverage-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3656:1" rel="noopener">Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)</a> booked some relatively resilient numbers for FY09/2020 with total revenues only down by -5.2% to THB253,481m, EBITDA up by +3.2%, with a net profit from normal operations up by +10.1% for FY09/2020. 4Q20 EBITDA increase by 31% YoY to Bt11.5bn. Sales of spirits grew by +19.2% QoQ in 4Q2020 versus 3Q2020 and beer sales grew by +22.8% QoQ. </p>
<p>The spirits business in 2020 was especially resilient, even with a temporary ban on alcohol sales in Thailand as part of lockdown measures.</p>
<p>The beer business was impacted by lockdowns to some extent but Vietnam was hit more than Thailand which registered flat sales. The recovery in the beer business will be the key to the 2020 recovery.</p>
<p>The company's non-alcoholic beverages division saw a decent turnaround but the food division continued to face pressure from declining sales due to restrictions on eating out but the environment is improving. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-beverage-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3656:1" rel="noopener">Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)</a> reiterated that in March 2020 it had exercised an internal restructuring of its beer business to generate more value and business growth opportunities, as well as improving operating efficiencies. This points the way to a spin-off at a future date.</p>
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<p>The company stated that the financial position remains solid as of October 2020 but it has entered into a bridging loan to provide it with the financial flexibility to potentially refinance its existing bond due in March 2021.  This represents a short-term overhang until an alternative becomes clear and could lead to higher finance costs in 1Q2021. </p>
<p>Valuations look attractive with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-beverage-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3656:1" rel="noopener">Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)</a> currently trading on 16.8x FY21E PER, in line with its historical average but it trades on an FY21E  EV/EBITDA of 12.4x, which looks cheap compared to its 3-year average forward EV/EBITDA and peer group comparisons.</p>
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Thai Beverage (THBEV SP) booked some relatively resilient numbers for FY09/2020 with total revenues only down by -5.2% to THB253,481m, EBITDA up by +3.2%, with a net profit from normal operations up by +10.1% for FY09/2020. 4Q20 EBITDA increase by 31% YoY to Bt11.5bn. Sales of spirits grew by +19.2% QoQ in 4Q2020 versus 3Q2020 and beer sales grew by +22.8% QoQ. 
The spirits business in 2020 was especially resilient, even with a temporary ban on alcohol sales in Thailand as part of lockdown measures.
The beer business was impacted by lockdowns to some extent but Vietnam was hit more than Thailand which registered flat sales. The recovery in the beer business will be the key to the 2020 recovery.
The company's non-alcoholic beverages division saw a decent turnaround but the food division continued to face pressure from declining sales due to restrictions on eating out but the environment is improving. 
Thai Beverage (THBEV SP) reiterated that in March 2020 it had exercised an internal restructuring of its beer business to generate more value and business growth opportunities, as well as improving operating efficiencies. This points the way to a spin-off at a future date.

The company stated that the financial position remains solid as of October 2020 but it has entered into a bridging loan to provide it with the financial flexibility to potentially refinance its existing bond due in March 2021.  This represents a short-term overhang until an alternative becomes clear and could lead to higher finance costs in 1Q2021. 
Valuations look attractive with Thai Beverage (THBEV SP) currently trading on 16.8x FY21E PER, in line with its historical average but it trades on an FY21E  EV/EBITDA of 12.4x, which looks cheap compared to its 3-year average forward EV/EBITDA and peer group comparisons.







Thai Beverage (THBEV SP) - A Beer Fuelled Future

Blue Moon Group Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guangzhou-blue-moon-industry-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29179:1" rel="noopener">Blue Moon Group Holdings (BMG HK)</a> (BMG) plans to raise around US$1bn in its Hong Kong listing. The company is backed by Hillhouse who first invested in the company in 2010. </p></div><div><p>BMG is a consumer household care company in China, which sells its products in three main categories: fabric care, personal hygiene and home care. As per Frost &amp; Sullivan, it has been the market leader in liquid laundry detergent, liquid soap and concentrated liquid laundry detergent market over 2017-19. </p></div><div><p>In our earlier insights:</p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/blue-moon-group-pre-ipo-the-positives-dominant-market-share-strong-online-sales" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Blue Moon Group Pre-IPO - The Positives - Dominant Market Share, Strong Online Sales</a>, I spoke about the positive aspects of the deal.</li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/blue-moon-group-pre-ipo-the-negatives-flagging-offline-sales-not-really-a-primary-raising" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Blue Moon Group Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Flagging Offline Sales, Not Really a Primary Raising</a>, I spoke about the not so flattering aspects of the deal</li>
<li>While my colleague, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/ming-lu" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:2496" rel="noopener">Ming Lu, </a>commented on the offline presence in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/blue-moon-no-1-but-no-exclusive-advantage-observation-on-the-ground" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Blue Moon: No. 1 but no exclusive advantage, observation on the ground.</a>
</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/blue-moon-group-pre-ipo-online-reviews-and-peer-comparison" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Blue Moon Group Pre-IPO - Online Reviews and Peer Comparison</a>, I compared the company compares with some of its listed peers.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/blue-moon-group-pre-ipo-initial-thoughts-on-valuation" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Blue Moon Group Pre-IPO - Initial Thoughts on Valuation</a>, I took a first stab at valuations.</li>
</ul></div><div><p>In this insight, I'll talk about updates from the PHIP.</p></div>

Blue Moon Group Holdings (BMG HK) (BMG) plans to raise around US$1bn in its Hong Kong listing. The company is backed by Hillhouse who first invested in the company in 2010. BMG is a consumer household care company in China, which sells its products in three main categories: fabric care, personal hygiene and home care. As per Frost &amp; Sullivan, it has been the market leader in liquid laundry detergent, liquid soap and concentrated liquid laundry detergent market over 2017-19. In our earlier insights:

Blue Moon Group Pre-IPO - The Positives - Dominant Market Share, Strong Online Sales, I spoke about the positive aspects of the deal.
In Blue Moon Group Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Flagging Offline Sales, Not Really a Primary Raising, I spoke about the not so flattering aspects of the deal
While my colleague, Ming Lu, commented on the offline presence in Blue Moon: No. 1 but no exclusive advantage, observation on the ground.


Blue Moon Group Pre-IPO - Online Reviews and Peer Comparison, I compared the company compares with some of its listed peers.

Blue Moon Group Pre-IPO - Initial Thoughts on Valuation, I took a first stab at valuations.
In this insight, I'll talk about updates from the PHIP.

Blue Moon Group Pre-IPO - PHIP Updates - A Mixed Bag

Hong Kong

China Resources Beer (Holdings) Company Limited is an alcoholic beverage retailer.

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China Resources Beer Holdings (291 HK)

CPMC Holdings (906 HK): An Attractive Inexpensive Alternative Consumption Play

CPMC is well positioned to capture the strong packaging demand from food, beverage and chemical products driven by China's consumption growth. Yet,...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HSI Market Consultation - Wide Ranging Changes Proposed

HSIL has announced the market consultation for the Hang Seng Index. The conclusions should be announced in February. If the market agrees to most...

Brian Freitas

Tsingtao Brewery Placement - Friday Evening Is Always a Good Time for a Beer, Maybe Not This One

Fosun International (656 HK) aims to raise up to US$303m via selling 2.3% of Tsingtao Brewery Co Ltd H (168 HK). This is not the first selldown by...

Sumeet Singh

Thai Beverage (THBEV SP) - A Beer Fuelled Future

Thai Beverage continues to be one of our top ASEAN recovery plays, with the potential for a spin-off of its beer business further down the line

Angus Mackintosh

Blue Moon Group Pre-IPO - PHIP Updates - A Mixed Bag

Blue Moon Group Holdings (BMG HK) (BMG) plans to raise around US$1bn in its Hong Kong listing. The company is backed by Hillhouse who first...

Sumeet Singh

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