Analyst

Steve Zhou, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

China Resources Beer Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-resources-beer-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:399:1" rel="noopener">China Resources Beer Holdings (291 HK)</a> is a USD21bn red-chip company, and the largest beer company in China in terms of sales volume.</li>
<li>The company is a perfect fit for the GARP (growth at a reasonable price) strategy, and visibility in earnings is also high for the next 3-5 years.</li>
<li>Weak sentiment in H-share stocks and in overall China macro/consumption numbers provide a good entry opportunity for the stock.  </li>
</ul>



China Resources Beer Holdings (291 HK) is a USD21bn red-chip company, and the largest beer company in China in terms of sales volume.
The company is a perfect fit for the GARP (growth at a reasonable price) strategy, and visibility in earnings is also high for the next 3-5 years.
Weak sentiment in H-share stocks and in overall China macro/consumption numbers provide a good entry opportunity for the stock.  


China Resources Beer (291 HK):  High Visibility; Steady Growth; Reasonable Valuation

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>In the short-term, meaningful policy reforms needed out of the Third Plenum</li>
<li>Chinese data continues to be lacklustre as expected while markets tread water</li>
<li>What can we expect from the Third Plenum to galvanise the next stage</li>
</ul>


In the short-term, meaningful policy reforms needed out of the Third Plenum
Chinese data continues to be lacklustre as expected while markets tread water
What can we expect from the Third Plenum to galvanise the next stage


The Hang Seng Index Is at a Critical Juncture

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>CR beer’s 13.6% 1H revenue growth comprised 9.0% beer revenue growth and RMB977mn baijiu revenue, which was reported and consolidated for the first time.</li><li>While the former seems to be slightly below our estimate of a low-teen growth, beer gross margin of 45.2% was 1.5pp ahead of us, thanks to raw material cost savings, and a better-than-expected sales mix.</li><li>Of note, Heineken recorded 60% YoY shipment growth, and now sub-premium+ (Super-x and above) contributed to 22% of total shipment over the reporting period. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

CR beer’s 13.6% 1H revenue growth comprised 9.0% beer revenue growth and RMB977mn baijiu revenue, which was reported and consolidated for the first time.While the former seems to be slightly below our estimate of a low-teen growth, beer gross margin of 45.2% was 1.5pp ahead of us, thanks to raw material cost savings, and a better-than-expected sales mix.Of note, Heineken recorded 60% YoY shipment growth, and now sub-premium+ (Super-x and above) contributed to 22% of total shipment over the reporting period. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CR Beer (291 HK) – 1H rev/EBIT +13%/26%; Heineken grew 60%

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/giant-biogene-holding-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35950:1" rel="noopener">Giant Biogene (2367 HK)</a> aims to raise up to US$205m via a top-up placement.</li>
<li>We have followed the company since listing and its recent performance has been great. Although it doesn’t seem to need the cash.</li>
<li>In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework and talk about the recent updates.</li>
</ul>



Giant Biogene (2367 HK) aims to raise up to US$205m via a top-up placement.
We have followed the company since listing and its recent performance has been great. Although it doesn’t seem to need the cash.
In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework and talk about the recent updates.


Giant Biogene Placement - Has Been Doing Well but Doesn’t Need the Cash

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-beverage-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3656:1" rel="noopener">Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)</a> has trended lower over the last couple of years and the stock is trading very close to its lows.</li>
<li>There has been a contraction in multiples and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-beverage-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3656:1" rel="noopener">Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)</a> trades cheaper than a lot of its Asia listed peers.</li>
<li>A potential index inclusion could bring in significant passive inflows and result in a rerating of the stock.</li>
</ul>



Thai Beverage (THBEV SP) has trended lower over the last couple of years and the stock is trading very close to its lows.
There has been a contraction in multiples and Thai Beverage (THBEV SP) trades cheaper than a lot of its Asia listed peers.
A potential index inclusion could bring in significant passive inflows and result in a rerating of the stock.


Thai Beverage (THBEV SP): Cheaper than Peers with an Upcoming Catalyst

Hong Kong

Tibet Water Resources Ltd. produces branded premium bottled mineral water. The Company is focused on institutional sales such as rail transport operators, commercial banks, airlines, government organizations, and other major corporations in China.

WH Group Limited operates as a holdings company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides meat processing services, supplies chilled meat, meat products, and other related products.

New Silkroad Culturaltainment Limited is an investment holding company which focuses on investing in, and consolidating, wine and baijiu companies.

China Foods Limited, through its subsidiaries, operates food processing businesses.  The Company processes and refines edible oil and fats, produces confectionery products, wine and beverage as well as flour including wheat and other grain products.  In addition, China Foods Limited trades food products.

Vitasoy International Holdings Limited, through its subsidiaries, manufactures and distributes food and beverages.

Nissin Foods Co., Ltd. operates as an instant food manufacturing company. The Company produces fried, cup, and buck wheat noodles. Nissin Foods markets its products worldwide.

San Miguel Brewery Hong Kong Limited and its subsidiaries manufacture and distribute bottled, canned, and draught beer. The Company sells its products under the San Miguel, Kirin, Lowenbrau, and Guang's brand names.

Lam Soon (Hong Kong) Limited, through its subsidiaries, manufactures and distributes a range of food products, including flour, edible oils and vegetable fats. The Company also manufactures and distributes household cleaning products, including dishwashing detergent, laundry powder, fabric softener, and floor cleanser.

Vinda International Holdings Limited manufactures tissue paper products in China.

Sun Art Retail Group Ltd. operates hypermarkets.  The Company retails food and offers amenities such as restaurants, automated teller machines, pharmacies and dry cleaners.

Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited produces and distributes beer products.  The Company markets its products throughout China and around the world under the Tsingtao Beer brand name.

Thai Beverage Public Company Limited produces a wide range of branded beer and spirits in Thailand.

United Spirits Ltd. manufactures and distributes alcoholic beverages. The Company provides a variety of alcohols and spirits, including whiskey, brandy, and rum. United Spirits also manufactures indian-made foreign liquor brands. United Spirits serves customers worldwide.

Molson Coors Brewing Company operates as a brewing company. The Company brews and produces beer. Molson Coors Brewing serves customers worldwide.

Suntory Beverage & Food Ltd manufacture and sells beverages and food products worldwide. The company is a part of Suntory Holdings ltd.

Coca-Cola Bottling Company Consolidated operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, produces, markets, and distributes nonalcoholic beverages such as energy drinks, bottled water, tea, ready-to-drink coffee, enhanced water, juices, and sports drinks.

Coca Cola Bottling Co. Consolidated (COKE US)

Kirin Holdings Company, Limited produces beer, soft drinks, food products, whisky, and pharmaceuticals.  The Company sells its products in Japan and overseas.

Coca-Cola HBC AG is one of the bottlers in the Coca-Cola system, operating plants in Europe, Africa, and Asia. The Company produces, sells, and distributes a wide range of non-alcoholic beverages, including sparkling, juice, water, sport, energy, tea, and coffee.

Jiangsu King's Luck Brewery JSC Ltd. operates as a wine company. The Company produces and distributes wine, liquor, and other related products.

Jiangsu King's Luck Brewery JS (603369 CH)

Molson Coors Canada Inc. is the principal operating unit of Molson Coors Brewing Company's business operations in Canada.

China Resources Beer (Holdings) Company Limited is an alcoholic beverage retailer.

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China Resources Beer Holdings (291 HK)

China Resources Beer (291 HK): High Visibility; Steady Growth; Reasonable Valuation

A stock with strong growth, reasonable valuation, and high visibility for the next three to five years, in one of the best consumer sectors in...

Steve Zhou, CFA

The Hang Seng Index Is at a Critical Juncture

Third Plenum must deliver meaningful policy reforms to boost the Chinese consumer and market performance in the short-term.

Rikki Malik

CR Beer (291 HK) – 1H rev/EBIT +13%/26%; Heineken grew 60%

CR beer’s 13.6% 1H revenue growth comprised 9.0% beer revenue growth and RMB977mn baijiu revenue, which was reported and consolidated for the first...

CMB International

Giant Biogene Placement - Has Been Doing Well but Doesn’t Need the Cash

Giant Biogene (2367 HK) aims to raise up to US$205m via a top-up placement. In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through...

Sumeet Singh

Thai Beverage (THBEV SP): Cheaper than Peers with an Upcoming Catalyst

Thai Bev has outperformed Bud APAC and CR Beer over the last 5 months. There could be an index inclusion in the next month and that could help the...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

China Resources Beer (291 HK): High Visibility; Steady Growth; Reasonable Valuation

A stock with strong growth, reasonable valuation, and high visibility for the next three to five years, in one of the best consumer sectors in...

Steve Zhou, CFA

The Hang Seng Index Is at a Critical Juncture

​Third Plenum must deliver meaningful policy reforms to boost the Chinese consumer and market performance in the short-term.

Rikki Malik

CR Beer (291 HK) – 1H rev/EBIT +13%/26%; Heineken grew 60%

CR beer’s 13.6% 1H revenue growth comprised 9.0% beer revenue growth and RMB977mn baijiu revenue, which was reported and consolidated for the first...

CMB International

Giant Biogene Placement - Has Been Doing Well but Doesn’t Need the Cash

Giant Biogene (2367 HK) aims to raise up to US$205m via a top-up placement. In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through...

Sumeet Singh

Thai Beverage (THBEV SP): Cheaper than Peers with an Upcoming Catalyst

Thai Bev has outperformed Bud APAC and CR Beer over the last 5 months. There could be an index inclusion in the next month and that could help the...

Brian Freitas

Third Plenum must deliver meaningful policy reforms to boost the Chinese consumer and market performance in the short-term.