Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The review period for a bunch of indices ended early last week and the announcement of the changes will be made in the next few weeks.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hydro-lithium-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8293:1" rel="noopener">Hydro Lithium (101670 KS)</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nice-information-service-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20236:1" rel="noopener">Nice Information Service Co (030190 KS)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kosdaq-150-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31077:1" rel="noopener">KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX EQUITY)</a> at the close on Monday.</li>
<li>There have been big net inflows into China focused ETFs and outflows from Taiwan focused ETFs during the week.</li>
</ul>


The review period for a bunch of indices ended early last week and the announcement of the changes will be made in the next few weeks.

Hydro Lithium (101670 KS) will replace Nice Information Service Co (030190 KS) in the KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX EQUITY) at the close on Monday.
There have been big net inflows into China focused ETFs and outflows from Taiwan focused ETFs during the week.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, STAR50, NIFTY NEXT50, SF Holding

<ul>
<li>As of 1 August, there could be two changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-ftse-a50-china-index-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:249:1" rel="noopener">iShares A50 China (2823 HK)</a>/ <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csop-ftse-china-a50-etf-26e3b671-fa47-4165-a12e-bf841640c5a3" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23664:1" rel="noopener">CSOP A50 (2822 HK)</a> in September.</li>
<li>There should be over 1x ADV to buy on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nari-technology-co-ltd-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4364:1" rel="noopener">NARI Technology Co Ltd A (600406 CH)</a> and over 1x ADV to sell on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shaanxi-coal-industry-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11254:1" rel="noopener">Shaanxi Coal Industry (601225 CH)</a>. </li>
<li>There are a few stocks bunched around similar market caps among the potential adds and there could be changes to the list over the next few weeks.</li>
</ul>


As of 1 August, there could be two changes for the iShares A50 China (2823 HK)/ CSOP A50 (2822 HK) in September.
There should be over 1x ADV to buy on NARI Technology Co Ltd A (600406 CH) and over 1x ADV to sell on Shaanxi Coal Industry (601225 CH). 
There are a few stocks bunched around similar market caps among the potential adds and there could be changes to the list over the next few weeks.


Offshore China ETFs Rebalance Preview: Two Changes in September

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Both the State Council and NDRC reiterated last week the importance of introducing economic stimulus measures. These measures should benefit the infrastructure construction companies.</li>
<li>1Q23 new contract growth, ranging between 6.3% and 15.8%, is healthy. With issuance of special purpose bonds up 16.5% in 4M23, new contract momentum looks to accelerate.</li>
<li>We view <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-communications-construction-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:265:1" rel="noopener">China Communications Construction (1800 HK)</a> most positively, given its diversified sub-segment coverage, highest overseas exposure, and best forward pipeline.</li>
</ul>


Both the State Council and NDRC reiterated last week the importance of introducing economic stimulus measures. These measures should benefit the infrastructure construction companies.
1Q23 new contract growth, ranging between 6.3% and 15.8%, is healthy. With issuance of special purpose bonds up 16.5% in 4M23, new contract momentum looks to accelerate.
We view China Communications Construction (1800 HK) most positively, given its diversified sub-segment coverage, highest overseas exposure, and best forward pipeline.


China Stimulus: Benefiting China Infrastructure Construction Sector

Equity Bottom-Up

China Railway Signal & Communication / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-railway-signal-communication-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:613:1" rel="noopener">China Railway Signal &amp; Communication (3969 HK)</a> (CRSC) has achieved good share price performance YTD, but we think there is more room to go for the rest of the year.</li>
<li>We like its steady domestic growth, exposure to overseas recovery, strong order backlog, and net cash position. 1Q23 new contracts reached Rmb13.7bn, an impressive 35.8% YoY growth.</li>
<li>Unlike the highly-geared infrastructure construction peers, CRSC's net cash equals 52% of the share price. On such basis, its P/B of 0.7x relative to ROE of 9-10% is inexpensive.</li>
</ul>



China Railway Signal &amp; Communication (3969 HK) (CRSC) has achieved good share price performance YTD, but we think there is more room to go for the rest of the year.
We like its steady domestic growth, exposure to overseas recovery, strong order backlog, and net cash position. 1Q23 new contracts reached Rmb13.7bn, an impressive 35.8% YoY growth.
Unlike the highly-geared infrastructure construction peers, CRSC's net cash equals 52% of the share price. On such basis, its P/B of 0.7x relative to ROE of 9-10% is inexpensive.


China CRSC (3969 HK): Uniquely Positioned with Strong Financials

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of June 9th.</li>
<li>We estimate the weekly inflows to be US$265.3 million, led by financials, consumer discretionary, industrials sectors, and offset by information technology, materials.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Midea, China Pacific Insurance, Advanced Micro, Huatai Securities, Zhejiang Dahua Technology, Anhui Conch Cement, East Money Information, Asr Microelectronics, Wuliangye.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of June 9th.
We estimate the weekly inflows to be US$265.3 million, led by financials, consumer discretionary, industrials sectors, and offset by information technology, materials.
We highlight flows for Midea, China Pacific Insurance, Advanced Micro, Huatai Securities, Zhejiang Dahua Technology, Anhui Conch Cement, East Money Information, Asr Microelectronics, Wuliangye.


Northbound Flows (Jun 9th): Midea, China Pacific Insurance, Advanced Micro, Huatai Securities, Dahua

China

China Railway Group Ltd. offers transportation systems construction services. The Company builds railroads, roads, tunnels, and bridges.

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China Railway Group Ltd H (390 HK)

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, STAR50, NIFTY NEXT50, SF Holding

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

Offshore China ETFs Rebalance Preview: Two Changes in September

There could be two sets of the changes for the 2823/2822 ETFs in September. A couple of stocks will have over 1x ADV to trade. There are few close...

Brian Freitas

China Stimulus: Benefiting China Infrastructure Construction Sector

We anticipate a new round of government stimulus measures and believe CCCC is the most benefited given its diversified segment coverage, highest...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China CRSC (3969 HK): Uniquely Positioned with Strong Financials

CRSC's strengths lie in its steady domestic growth, overseas recovery exposure, strong order backlog, and net cash position. It is undemanding at...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Northbound Flows (Jun 9th): Midea, China Pacific Insurance, Advanced Micro, Huatai Securities, Dahua

We analyzed the Shanghai/Shenzhen Connect Scheme for last week and highlight flows for Midea, China Pacific Insurance, Advanced Micro, Huatai...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

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