Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

Hang Seng China Enterprises Index / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Most companies have announced their final dividends for 2021 and most of those have announced ex-dates. Banks and oil companies have announced higher dividends than last year.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cnooc-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:175:1" rel="noopener">CNOOC Ltd (883 HK)</a> has not declared a dividend yet due to its IPO, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sunac-china-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:240:1" rel="noopener">Sunac China Holdings (1918 HK)</a>'s suspension could lead to index deletion in June or July. </li>
<li>Using current/proforma index compositions and conservative estimates for interim dividends, we estimate fair value at 240.73 DIPS for 2022. This is a sell at the last close or higher.</li>
</ul>


Most companies have announced their final dividends for 2021 and most of those have announced ex-dates. Banks and oil companies have announced higher dividends than last year.

CNOOC Ltd (883 HK) has not declared a dividend yet due to its IPO, while Sunac China Holdings (1918 HK)'s suspension could lead to index deletion in June or July. 
Using current/proforma index compositions and conservative estimates for interim dividends, we estimate fair value at 240.73 DIPS for 2022. This is a sell at the last close or higher.


HSCEI Dividend Futures: 2022 Fair Value Update & CNOOC/Sunac/JD.com Adjustments

Equity Research in HK and Mainland China

Li Tang

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Following the repeated calls for stability of the economy and the housing market, local governments are stepping up support.</li>
<li>More cities cut the down-payment ratio for the first home buyers</li>
<li>In 2022 we expect a nuanced policy response to the downturn in the housing market:</li>
</ul>


Following the repeated calls for stability of the economy and the housing market, local governments are stepping up support.
More cities cut the down-payment ratio for the first home buyers
In 2022 we expect a nuanced policy response to the downturn in the housing market:


Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

<ul>
<li>There are signs that a base has been building in Real Estate allocations, and that sentiment is starting to stabilise.</li>
<li>Average weights in the Real Estate sector ticked higher by 0.25% and 5.43% of managers moved to overweight, closing the net underweight by 0.22%.</li>
<li>Central Pattana Pub (CPN TB), China Resources Mixc Lifestyle Services (1209 HK) and Capitaland (CAPL SP) were beneficiaries of recent inflows</li>
</ul>


There are signs that a base has been building in Real Estate allocations, and that sentiment is starting to stabilise.
Average weights in the Real Estate sector ticked higher by 0.25% and 5.43% of managers moved to overweight, closing the net underweight by 0.22%.
Central Pattana Pub (CPN TB), China Resources Mixc Lifestyle Services (1209 HK) and Capitaland (CAPL SP) were beneficiaries of recent inflows


<ul>
<li>Relevant government departments have reportedly issued opinions on the supervision of presales funds</li>
<li>Property lending dropped YoY in January despite adequate liquidity in last month</li>
<li>We think policy support is still inadequate and should step up in the real estate sector on the demand-side</li>
</ul>


Relevant government departments have reportedly issued opinions on the supervision of presales funds
Property lending dropped YoY in January despite adequate liquidity in last month
We think policy support is still inadequate and should step up in the real estate sector on the demand-side


China Plan Easing Rules on Presales Funds Held in Escrow

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jan 7th. </li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. </li>
<li>We highlight short spike for Alibaba (9988 HK) and China Overseas Land (688 HK).</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jan 7th. 
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. 
We highlight short spike for Alibaba (9988 HK) and China Overseas Land (688 HK).


HK Short Interest: Alibaba, China Overseas Land

Hong Kong

China Overseas Land & Investment Limited provides real estate services. The Company develops, manages, and invests in commercial properties. China Overseas Land & Investment serves customers globally.

China Overseas Land & Investment (688 HK)

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China Overseas Land & Investment (688 HK)

HSCEI Dividend Futures: 2022 Fair Value Update & CNOOC/Sunac/JD.com Adjustments

We estimate a fair value of 240.73 DIPS for the HSCEI 2022 dividend futures after adjusting for CNOOC/Sunac/JD.com. We would be sellers of the...

Brian Freitas

China Cities Start Cutting Down-Payments

In terms of the investment impact, we expect the home market recovery to continue to be differentiated by region and developer

Li Tang

Asia Real Estate: Early Stage Recovery

There are signs that a base has been building in Real Estate allocations, and that sentiment is starting to stabilise among active Asia Ex-Japan...

Steven Holden

China Plan Easing Rules on Presales Funds Held in Escrow

Recovery of the real estate sector is still reliant on the demand side, which should take longer to recover as people wait for policy support and...

Li Tang

HK Short Interest: Alibaba, China Overseas Land

We highlight week on week short spike for Alibaba (9988 HK) and China Overseas Land (688 HK) from the latest SFC short aggregate report.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)