Analyst

Steve

Equity Bottom-Up

Midea Real Estate Holding  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/midea-real-estate-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27450:1" rel="noopener">Midea Real Estate Holding (3990 HK)</a> announced last night a proposal for distribution in specie of the property development business to shareholders.</li>
<li>The proposal allows shareholders to select between receiving pro rata shares in the PrivateCo, or the cash alternative at HKD5.90 per share, a 57% premium to last close at HKD3.75. </li>
<li>I believe this is a good deal for minority shareholders.  The company (ex. property development business) will continue to be listed on the HKSE after the distribution.  </li>
</ul>



Midea Real Estate Holding (3990 HK) announced last night a proposal for distribution in specie of the property development business to shareholders.
The proposal allows shareholders to select between receiving pro rata shares in the PrivateCo, or the cash alternative at HKD5.90 per share, a 57% premium to last close at HKD3.75. 
I believe this is a good deal for minority shareholders.  The company (ex. property development business) will continue to be listed on the HKSE after the distribution.  


Midea Real Estate (3990 HK):  Divesting Property Development Business (Cash Option At 57% Premium)

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>In this webinar, part of Real Estate Foresight's 12th annual China Property Outlook, we share our views on 2024 for the China housing markets</li>
<li>We explore several themes, incl. the latest Whitelist approvals by local governments and a wave of related announcements</li>
<li>The webinar presentation was recorded on Feb 6, 2024. You can also view <a href="https://vimeo.com/911098574/5874dfd757?share=copy" target="_blank" rel="noopener">this 3-minute version</a> with a few highlights.</li>
</ul>


In this webinar, part of Real Estate Foresight's 12th annual China Property Outlook, we share our views on 2024 for the China housing markets
We explore several themes, incl. the latest Whitelist approvals by local governments and a wave of related announcements
The webinar presentation was recorded on Feb 6, 2024. You can also view this 3-minute version with a few highlights.


Webinar Recording: 12th Annual China Property Outlook by Real Estate Foresight, "The Big Shifts"

<ul>
<li>China's new home ('commercial residential') sales dropped from the peak of 1.57 billion sqm (GFA) in 2021 to 0.95 billion sqm in 2023</li>
<li>Major 9 cities  fared better, but an important shift took place there, with the secondary markets taking over the new home sales for the first time in 2023</li>
<li>In this note, we look at the dynamics of this shift, drawing on data on primary and secondary sales and house prices, as well as the local anecdotal evidence </li>
</ul>


China's new home ('commercial residential') sales dropped from the peak of 1.57 billion sqm (GFA) in 2021 to 0.95 billion sqm in 2023
Major 9 cities  fared better, but an important shift took place there, with the secondary markets taking over the new home sales for the first time in 2023
In this note, we look at the dynamics of this shift, drawing on data on primary and secondary sales and house prices, as well as the local anecdotal evidence 


China Property - A Shift To Secondary Markets?

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Improved liquidity and a higher stock price could see passive trackers buying <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wharf-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:51:1" rel="noopener">Wharf Holdings (4 HK)</a> within the next couple of months.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wharf-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:51:1" rel="noopener">Wharf Holdings (4 HK)</a> trades cheaper than the average and median of its peers on EV/Sales, EV/EBITDA and price to book value.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wharf-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:51:1" rel="noopener">Wharf Holdings (4 HK)</a> has already started to move higher and there could be a bigger move in the stock over the next month.</li>
</ul>


Improved liquidity and a higher stock price could see passive trackers buying Wharf Holdings (4 HK) within the next couple of months.

Wharf Holdings (4 HK) trades cheaper than the average and median of its peers on EV/Sales, EV/EBITDA and price to book value.

Wharf Holdings (4 HK) has already started to move higher and there could be a bigger move in the stock over the next month.


Wharf Holdings (4 HK): Improved Liquidity & Passive Buying

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Greentown Service Group / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>As China's property market melts down, shares of property management companies are following suit.</li>
<li>And there are increasing governance issues attached to these management units as a slew of questionable parent/subsidiary transactions unfold. </li>
<li>Valuations for property management companies are trading at multi-year lows. That trend is likely to continue.</li>
</ul>


As China's property market melts down, shares of property management companies are following suit.
And there are increasing governance issues attached to these management units as a slew of questionable parent/subsidiary transactions unfold. 
Valuations for property management companies are trading at multi-year lows. That trend is likely to continue.


China Property Management: Lacking Independence

Hong Kong

China Overseas Land & Investment Limited provides real estate services. The Company develops, manages, and invests in commercial properties. China Overseas Land & Investment serves customers globally.

China Overseas Land & Investment (688 HK)

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

China Overseas Land & Investment (688 HK)

Midea Real Estate (3990 HK): Divesting Property Development Business (Cash Option At 57% Premium)

Midea Real Estate (3990 HK) announced last night a proposal for distribution of the property development business to shareholders. The cash...

Steve

Webinar Recording: 12th Annual China Property Outlook by Real Estate Foresight, "The Big Shifts"

China: As the Two Meetings kick off this week, our China Property Outlook 2024 webinar from February dives deeper into the China housing market,...

Robert Ciemniak

China Property - A Shift To Secondary Markets?

China Property / Housing Markets: Real Estate Foresight's take on the 2024 outlook for new home sales, new starts, and the major themes for the...

Robert Ciemniak

Wharf Holdings (4 HK): Improved Liquidity & Passive Buying

Wharf Holdings has outperformed its peers by 25% over the last 2 months. With passive buying coming up, there could be some profit taking in the...

Brian Freitas

China Property Management: Lacking Independence

Property management units are unlikely to be shielded from risks as their parent face funding issues. Valuations for property management companies...

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)