Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
Default: Kaisa Group Holdings (1638.HK) [Kaisa] allegedly failed to pay its USD 400 mn bond;</li>
<li>
Obfuscation On F/S: Part of the problem with Kaisa is how the financial statements broken out, which, in our view, obfuscated the true nature of liquidity at Kaisa; and</li>
<li>
Other Creditors: In addition to offshore bondholders, Kaisa’s main banks include: Bank of China (3988.HK); ICBC (1398.HK); Ping An Bank (000001.CH); China Minsheng Bank (1988.HK); and China CITIC Bank (998.HK).</li>
</ul>



Default: Kaisa Group Holdings (1638.HK) [Kaisa] allegedly failed to pay its USD 400 mn bond;

Obfuscation On F/S: Part of the problem with Kaisa is how the financial statements broken out, which, in our view, obfuscated the true nature of liquidity at Kaisa; and

Other Creditors: In addition to offshore bondholders, Kaisa’s main banks include: Bank of China (3988.HK); ICBC (1398.HK); Ping An Bank (000001.CH); China Minsheng Bank (1988.HK); and China CITIC Bank (998.HK).


Kaisa Group Holdings – Second Domino Falls

<ul>
<li>
Default: On December 6, 2021, several investors appear to have confirmed that China Evergrande Group (3333.HK) [Evergrande] does not have the financial wherewithal to cover grace period payments;</li>
<li>
Fire Brigade Called: Evergrande established a risk-management committee (RMC) to assist in "mitigating and eliminating the future risks", in addition to Guangdong Province disseminating a team to Evergrande; and</li>
<li>
Intensified Bank Risk: Shenjing Bank (2066.HK) has CNY 129.4 bn exposure to Evergrande, implying stated NPLs of 24.4%. Other bank creditors: China Minsheng, China Zheshang, Shanghai Pudong, and Citic Trust.</li>
</ul>



Default: On December 6, 2021, several investors appear to have confirmed that China Evergrande Group (3333.HK) [Evergrande] does not have the financial wherewithal to cover grace period payments;

Fire Brigade Called: Evergrande established a risk-management committee (RMC) to assist in "mitigating and eliminating the future risks", in addition to Guangdong Province disseminating a team to Evergrande; and

Intensified Bank Risk: Shenjing Bank (2066.HK) has CNY 129.4 bn exposure to Evergrande, implying stated NPLs of 24.4%. Other bank creditors: China Minsheng, China Zheshang, Shanghai Pudong, and Citic Trust.


Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.<ul><li><a href='#lucror-entity-479'>Evergrande</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-10675'>Honghua Group</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-14896'>Jingrui Holdings</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-29231'>KWG Living Group</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-3121'>Lippo Karawaci</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-21047'>Ronshine China Holdings</a></li></ul>

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.EvergrandeHonghua GroupJingrui HoldingsKWG Living GroupLippo KarawaciRonshine China Holdings

Morning Views Asia: Evergrande, Honghua Group, Jingrui Holdings, KWG Living Group, Lippo Karawaci

<ul>
<li>
Surprise Exchange Filing: In a surprise exchange filing, China Evergrande Group (3333.HK) [Evergrande] is planning to “actively engage” with offshore creditors on a restructuring plan; </li>
<li>
Ending Grace Period:Another Evergrande test comes on December 6, 2021, when the 30-day grace period ends on two USD bond coupon payments; and</li>
<li>
Kaisa Risk:Kaisa Group Holdings (1638.HK) faces a potential USD 400 mn default a day after the Evergrande payments are due. </li>
</ul>



Surprise Exchange Filing: In a surprise exchange filing, China Evergrande Group (3333.HK) [Evergrande] is planning to “actively engage” with offshore creditors on a restructuring plan; 

Ending Grace Period:Another Evergrande test comes on December 6, 2021, when the 30-day grace period ends on two USD bond coupon payments; and

Kaisa Risk:Kaisa Group Holdings (1638.HK) faces a potential USD 400 mn default a day after the Evergrande payments are due. 


Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Evergrande did a "Friday night drop" saying it might not be able to continue to perform its financial obligations. The Guangdong govt called Chairman Hui on the carpet. </li>
<li>The PBOC, CBIRC, and CSRC appear to have thrown Evergrande management under the bus with simultaneous statements that Evergrande's case is an individual one due to "reckless expansion."</li>
<li>$82.5mm of coupons are due today at midnight. There is a demand for performance of a a guarantee on a US$260mm bond. Push has come to shove. </li>
</ul>


Evergrande did a "Friday night drop" saying it might not be able to continue to perform its financial obligations. The Guangdong govt called Chairman Hui on the carpet. 
The PBOC, CBIRC, and CSRC appear to have thrown Evergrande management under the bus with simultaneous statements that Evergrande's case is an individual one due to "reckless expansion."
$82.5mm of coupons are due today at midnight. There is a demand for performance of a a guarantee on a US$260mm bond. Push has come to shove. 


The Evergrande Quantum Kitty Living Its Ninth Life

China

China Evergrande Group is an integrated residential property developer. The Company, through its subsidiaries, operates in property development, investment, management, finance, internet, health, culture, and tourism markets.

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Evergrande (3333 HK)

Kaisa Group Holdings – Second Domino Falls

KAISA: Kaisa allegedly failed to pay its USD 400 mn bond. Part of the problem with Kaisa is how the financial statements broken out, which, in our...

Thomas J. Monaco

China Evergrande Group – Fire Sale

EVERGRANDE: Several investors appear to have confirmed that Evergrande failed to cover grace period payments. Shenjing Bank has CNY 129.4 bn...

Thomas J. Monaco

Morning Views Asia: Evergrande, Honghua Group, Jingrui Holdings, KWG Living Group, Lippo Karawaci

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region,...

Lucror Analytics

China Evergrande – Pre-Announcement?

EVERGRANDE: In an exchange filing, Evergrande is planning to “actively engage” with offshore creditors on a restructuring plan. A 30-day grace...

Thomas J. Monaco

The Evergrande Quantum Kitty Living Its Ninth Life

Evergrande filed a statement Friday saying debt repayment was a question mark. The Guangdong govt will send in a work group which is part of the...

Travis Lundy

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