Financials Credit Analyst

Hank Calenti, CFA

CreditContinuum

Credit

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-communications-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24562:1" rel="noopener">Bank of Communications' (BOCOM)</a> recently issued Additional Tier 1 bond appears fully priced. Trading just behind <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-china-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:656:1" rel="noopener">Bank of China (BCHINA)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ind-comm-bk-of-china-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1119:1" rel="noopener">Industrial &amp; Commercial Bank of China (ICBC)</a>, we see little upside and despite moderate exposure to typically problematic exposures, we are not convinced that BOCOM is a flight to quality bank. We see better value elsewhere.</p>

Bank of Communications' (BOCOM) recently issued Additional Tier 1 bond appears fully priced. Trading just behind Bank of China (BCHINA) and Industrial &amp; Commercial Bank of China (ICBC), we see little upside and despite moderate exposure to typically problematic exposures, we are not convinced that BOCOM is a flight to quality bank. We see better value elsewhere.

Bank of Communications: Recent AT1 Is Fully Priced; Look Elsewhere for Value

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

Evergrande Property Services / Equity Capital Markets

<div>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/evergrande-property-services" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30921:1" rel="noopener">Evergrande Services (EGS HK)</a> is a Chinese property management provider. Evergrande ranked fourth in GFA under management, among the Top 100 property management companies in China in 2019, according to CIA. The controlling shareholder is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-evergrande-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:479:1" rel="noopener">Evergrande Real Estate Group (3333 HK)</a>.</p>
<p>At the proposed IPO price range of HK$8.50-9.75 per share, Evergrande will have a market cap of HK$91,891.9-105,405.4 million ($11.9-13.6 billion). At the mid-point of the IPO price range, the total proceeds are HK$14,797 million ($1.9 billion) which is equally split between a primary and secondary raise. The selling shareholder is CEG Holdings, which is owned by China Evergrande Group. </p>
</div><div><p>21 cornerstone investors will subscribe for HK$7,207.9 million worth of the offer shares (48.68% of the offer shares at the IPO mid-point). The cornerstone investors are mostly "friends-and-family" accounts and over half have business ties with Evergrande Group. </p></div><div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/evergrande-property-services-ipo-initiation-standing-out" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:45554" rel="noopener">Evergrande Property Services IPO Initiation: Standing Out</a>, we stated that Evergrande’s fundamentals are strong. Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range is attractive. </p></div></div></div>


Evergrande Services (EGS HK) is a Chinese property management provider. Evergrande ranked fourth in GFA under management, among the Top 100 property management companies in China in 2019, according to CIA. The controlling shareholder is Evergrande Real Estate Group (3333 HK).
At the proposed IPO price range of HK$8.50-9.75 per share, Evergrande will have a market cap of HK$91,891.9-105,405.4 million ($11.9-13.6 billion). At the mid-point of the IPO price range, the total proceeds are HK$14,797 million ($1.9 billion) which is equally split between a primary and secondary raise. The selling shareholder is CEG Holdings, which is owned by China Evergrande Group. 
21 cornerstone investors will subscribe for HK$7,207.9 million worth of the offer shares (48.68% of the offer shares at the IPO mid-point). The cornerstone investors are mostly "friends-and-family" accounts and over half have business ties with Evergrande Group. In Evergrande Property Services IPO Initiation: Standing Out, we stated that Evergrande’s fundamentals are strong. Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range is attractive. 

Evergrande Property Services IPO: Valuation Insights

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

<p>Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.</p><ul><li><a href='#lucror-entity-479'>Evergrande Real Estate Group</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-26799'>Future Retail</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-112'>Lifestyle International Holdings</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-22202'>Vedanta Resources</a></li></ul>

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.Evergrande Real Estate GroupFuture RetailLifestyle International HoldingsVedanta Resources

Morning Views Asia: Evergrande Real Estate Group, Future Retail, Lifestyle International Holdings

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>While <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shenzhen-investment-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17281:1" rel="noopener">Shenzhen Investment (604 HK)</a> has a positive outlook based on its good margin, low leverage, asset injection and good pre-sale performance, as revealed in its online investor meeting last Friday. Its Sep and Oct contracted sales momentum has gathered strength with over 50% YoY growth. Despite so, we see it less attractive than <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shenzhen-intl-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9:1" rel="noopener">Shenzhen Intl (152 HK)</a> in terms of investment merits. </p><p>In our view, the key concerns on SZ Inv are its diversification out of Greater Bay Area, shrinking land bank, risk of investment in Hengda Real Estate and the limited upside on Shenzhen property price. Share price of SZ Inv has underperformed that for SZ Int by 3.1pp and we continue to advocate a <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/the-shenzhen-story-a-look-at-the-pair-trades-on-sz-int-sz-exp-and-sz-inv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44508" rel="noopener">"long SZ Int, short SZ Inv"</a> pair trade strategy. </p>

While Shenzhen Investment (604 HK) has a positive outlook based on its good margin, low leverage, asset injection and good pre-sale performance, as revealed in its online investor meeting last Friday. Its Sep and Oct contracted sales momentum has gathered strength with over 50% YoY growth. Despite so, we see it less attractive than Shenzhen Intl (152 HK) in terms of investment merits. In our view, the key concerns on SZ Inv are its diversification out of Greater Bay Area, shrinking land bank, risk of investment in Hengda Real Estate and the limited upside on Shenzhen property price. Share price of SZ Inv has underperformed that for SZ Int by 3.1pp and we continue to advocate a "long SZ Int, short SZ Inv" pair trade strategy. 

Shenzhen Investment (604 HK): Good Story yet Less Attractive than Shenzhen International (152.HK)

<p style="text-align: justify;">Credit risk markets remained decoupled between the US and Asia as spreads on US Caa-rated entities continued to defy gravity. The risk-on wave continued to swell through US risk asses on additional positive vaccine news. Combined with a Goldilocks election outcome whereby President Trump loses the election, but Joe Biden does not win a mandate, spreads on the US Caa-rated complex tightened to inside Asia’s HY index for the first time since 2014. Is it time to sell the Caa bull market?  </p><p style="text-align: justify;">Treasury Secretary Mnuchin’s decision to cancel several underutilized emergency Fed programs at the end of the year may raise expectations for the Fed to expand its asset purchase program or target its purchases more directly along the Treasury curve at its December meeting. We are set-up for disappointment.  </p><p style="text-align: justify;">Against this background, Asia’s HY Additional Tier 1 underperformed Subordinated and Senior Unsecured securities as near-term global growth concerns outweighed vaccine progress. Most of the underperforming bond were issued over the last three months. This suggests these may have been issued at the top of the market, in spread terms. Amongst Additional Tier 1 bonds, Hong Kong-headquartered banks led advances. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-east-asia-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:341:1" rel="noopener">Bank of East Asia's (23 HK)</a> announcement that it would call its 5.5% coupon December-callable AT1 bond aided sentiment. We first recommended that investors overweight this security in mid-February within <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bank-of-east-asia-overweight-short-call-at1-on-refinancing-ability" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:36787" rel="noopener">Bank of East Asia: Overweight Short-Call AT1 on Refinancing Ability</a> and recently re-iterated this call within <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bank-of-east-asia-buy-the-inefficient-capital-securities" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:42753" rel="noopener">Bank of East Asia: Buy the Inefficient Capital Securities</a>. Victory lap over.</p><p style="text-align: justify;">Concurrently, Turkish HY Senior Unsecured bank bonds again materially outperformed their global peers following delivery of a more orthodox monetary policy regime. Nonetheless, Turkish bank bonds continue to trade wide of similarly rated entities in other emerging markets.  Given the starting point for a potential Turkish bank bond rally, we anticipate a virus versus vaccine market immunity in Turkish-bank bonds returns over the near term.  <strong> </strong></p><p style="text-align: justify;">Over US$13 billion was raised by financial institutions in USD, Euros and Sterling across the credit continuum. Amongst higher-yield issued securities, the UK Co-operative Bank’s Caa1 rated bond makes India’s <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/iifl-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20197:1" rel="noopener">IIFL Finance's (IIFL IN)</a> US$-bond look cheap in comparison. However, unlike India where every bank rescue requires a liability moratorium, the Co-operative Bank resolution three years ago was not damaging to the financial system. India’s rescue of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lakshmi-vilas-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17552:1" rel="noopener">Lakshmi Vilas Bank (LVB IN)</a> this week is no exception. For our views on this please see: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/lakshmi-vilas-bank-dbs-rescue-is-a-wasted-option" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:45471" rel="noopener">Lakshmi Vilas Bank: DBS Rescue Is a Wasted Option</a>.</p><p style="text-align: justify;">US$-debt issuance should be slowed by the upcoming US holiday on Thursday. We could see a short-lived resurgence in early December and then drift sideways until heavy issuance re-emerges in January.</p><p style="text-align: justify;"><strong>Market Outlook: </strong>Over the near term, tension between longer-term optimism from vaccine driven economies and the shorter-term reality of increasing Coronavirus lockdowns are likely to weigh on the market in the coming weeks. Positive vaccine news combined with a goldilocks US election outcome lowers the likelihood of excessive US federal stimulus. This should cap additional upward pressure on US Treasury yields until vision increases on likely H2 ’21 US economic growth, post-vaccine distribution. Reflation remains on hold. This could limit US dollar weakness and limit positive impacts on reflationary beneficiaries such as bank valuations and Emerging Markets (EM) assets.</p>

Credit risk markets remained decoupled between the US and Asia as spreads on US Caa-rated entities continued to defy gravity. The risk-on wave continued to swell through US risk asses on additional positive vaccine news. Combined with a Goldilocks election outcome whereby President Trump loses the election, but Joe Biden does not win a mandate, spreads on the US Caa-rated complex tightened to inside Asia’s HY index for the first time since 2014. Is it time to sell the Caa bull market?  Treasury Secretary Mnuchin’s decision to cancel several underutilized emergency Fed programs at the end of the year may raise expectations for the Fed to expand its asset purchase program or target its purchases more directly along the Treasury curve at its December meeting. We are set-up for disappointment.  Against this background, Asia’s HY Additional Tier 1 underperformed Subordinated and Senior Unsecured securities as near-term global growth concerns outweighed vaccine progress. Most of the underperforming bond were issued over the last three months. This suggests these may have been issued at the top of the market, in spread terms. Amongst Additional Tier 1 bonds, Hong Kong-headquartered banks led advances. Bank of East Asia's (23 HK) announcement that it would call its 5.5% coupon December-callable AT1 bond aided sentiment. We first recommended that investors overweight this security in mid-February within Bank of East Asia: Overweight Short-Call AT1 on Refinancing Ability and recently re-iterated this call within Bank of East Asia: Buy the Inefficient Capital Securities. Victory lap over.Concurrently, Turkish HY Senior Unsecured bank bonds again materially outperformed their global peers following delivery of a more orthodox monetary policy regime. Nonetheless, Turkish bank bonds continue to trade wide of similarly rated entities in other emerging markets.  Given the starting point for a potential Turkish bank bond rally, we anticipate a virus versus vaccine market immunity in Turkish-bank bonds returns over the near term.   Over US$13 billion was raised by financial institutions in USD, Euros and Sterling across the credit continuum. Amongst higher-yield issued securities, the UK Co-operative Bank’s Caa1 rated bond makes India’s IIFL Finance's (IIFL IN) US$-bond look cheap in comparison. However, unlike India where every bank rescue requires a liability moratorium, the Co-operative Bank resolution three years ago was not damaging to the financial system. India’s rescue of Lakshmi Vilas Bank (LVB IN) this week is no exception. For our views on this please see: Lakshmi Vilas Bank: DBS Rescue Is a Wasted Option.US$-debt issuance should be slowed by the upcoming US holiday on Thursday. We could see a short-lived resurgence in early December and then drift sideways until heavy issuance re-emerges in January.Market Outlook: Over the near term, tension between longer-term optimism from vaccine driven economies and the shorter-term reality of increasing Coronavirus lockdowns are likely to weigh on the market in the coming weeks. Positive vaccine news combined with a goldilocks US election outcome lowers the likelihood of excessive US federal stimulus. This should cap additional upward pressure on US Treasury yields until vision increases on likely H2 ’21 US economic growth, post-vaccine distribution. Reflation remains on hold. This could limit US dollar weakness and limit positive impacts on reflationary beneficiaries such as bank valuations and Emerging Markets (EM) assets.

Bank Credit Weekly: Virus Vs. Vaccine: Time to Sell the Caa-Bull?

China

China Evergrande Group is an integrated residential property developer. The Company, through its subsidiaries, operates in property development, investment, management, finance, internet, health, culture, and tourism markets.

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Evergrande (3333 HK)

Bank of Communications: Recent AT1 Is Fully Priced; Look Elsewhere for Value

Bank of Communications' recently issued Additional Tier 1 bond appears fully priced. We see little upside despite moderate exposure to typically...

Hank Calenti, CFA

Evergrande Property Services IPO: Valuation Insights

Evergrande has launched its IPO to raise total proceeds of $1.9 billion at the mid-point. Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range...

Arun George

Morning Views Asia: Evergrande Real Estate Group, Future Retail, Lifestyle International Holdings

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region,...

Lucror Analytics

Shenzhen Investment (604 HK): Good Story yet Less Attractive than Shenzhen International (152.HK)

While SZ Inv has a positive outlook with a pick-up in pre-sale performance in Sep and Oct, we consider it less attractive than SZ Int; and we...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Bank Credit Weekly: Virus Vs. Vaccine: Time to Sell the Caa-Bull?

Is it time to sell the Caa-bull market? Some AT1 bonds seem to be at a market top. We are set-up for disappointment. Nonetheless, we anticipate...

Hank Calenti, CFA

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