Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>By one metric, outbound tourism in December improved to 89% of 2019 levels</li>
<li>Meanwhile, domestic activity in December remained close to pre-Covid levels</li>
<li>In this month's edition we track the tourism recovery in ten illustrative charts</li>
</ul>


By one metric, outbound tourism in December improved to 89% of 2019 levels
Meanwhile, domestic activity in December remained close to pre-Covid levels
In this month's edition we track the tourism recovery in ten illustrative charts


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | China's 2023 Recovery in Ten Charts | (January 2024)

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 146 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 128.5% as of Jan 26th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by -0.6ppt week-on-week, led by energy, industrials, health care and offset by real estate, communication services, information technology.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Haier Smart Home, China Tourism, Conch Cement, Tsingtao Brew, Gwmotor, China Energy Engineering, Tianqi Lithium Corporation.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 146 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 128.5% as of Jan 26th.
The average A-H premium changed by -0.6ppt week-on-week, led by energy, industrials, health care and offset by real estate, communication services, information technology.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Haier Smart Home, China Tourism, Conch Cement, Tsingtao Brew, Gwmotor, China Energy Engineering, Tianqi Lithium Corporation.


A-H Premium Weekly (Jan 26th): Haier Smart, China Tourism, Conch Cement, Tsingtao Brew, GWM

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 146 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 129.2% as of Jan 19th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by 7.1ppt week-on-week, led by financials, materials, health care and offset by information technology.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Haier Smart H, ICBC, China Vanke, ZTE, China Rail Gr, China Com Cons, SMIC, China Longyuan.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 146 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 129.2% as of Jan 19th.
The average A-H premium changed by 7.1ppt week-on-week, led by financials, materials, health care and offset by information technology.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Haier Smart H, ICBC, China Vanke, ZTE, China Rail Gr, China Com Cons, SMIC, China Longyuan.


A-H Premium Weekly (Jan 19th): Haier Smart, ICBC, China Vanke, ZTE, CR Group, CCCC

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Data from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd-23a341d0-4f63-4175-a8c5-ee990906cacd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36424:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com Group (9961 HK)</a> showed good improvement in travel demand for the 2024 New Year holidays. The volume of various orders has surged between 2x and 5x YoY. </li>
<li>Aggregate net profit for the tourism and hospitality sector has turned around to Rmb20.4bn in 3Q23, from losses of Rmb24.7bn a year ago, demonstrating solid profitability recovery.</li>
<li>An average of 32% drop in the sector's share price YTD is unjustified. We like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tongcheng-travel-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27363:1" rel="noopener">Tongcheng Travel (780 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/air-china-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8239:1" rel="noopener">Air China (H) (753 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fosun-tourism-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27439:1" rel="noopener">Fosun Tourism (1992 HK)</a>.  </li>
</ul>


Data from Trip.com Group (9961 HK) showed good improvement in travel demand for the 2024 New Year holidays. The volume of various orders has surged between 2x and 5x YoY. 
Aggregate net profit for the tourism and hospitality sector has turned around to Rmb20.4bn in 3Q23, from losses of Rmb24.7bn a year ago, demonstrating solid profitability recovery.
An average of 32% drop in the sector's share price YTD is unjustified. We like Tongcheng Travel (780 HK), Air China (H) (753 HK) and Fosun Tourism (1992 HK).  


China Tourism and Hospitality Industry: Boom in 2024 New Year Travel Demand

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/air-china-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8239:1" rel="noopener">Air China (H) (753 HK)</a> is proposing a new share placement to raise Rmb6bn and HK$2bn. EPS dilution is manageable at 6% so we view the proposal positively.  </li>
<li>The new equity will enhance book value by 11.5% and lower its gearing by 103pp to 399.8%. The full subscription by the parent is also a vote of confidence. </li>
<li>Recent share price weakness is due to the overall weakness in the Chinese equity market, but both macro and operating environments are improving. Selldown is unjustified.</li>
</ul>



Air China (H) (753 HK) is proposing a new share placement to raise Rmb6bn and HK$2bn. EPS dilution is manageable at 6% so we view the proposal positively.  
The new equity will enhance book value by 11.5% and lower its gearing by 103pp to 399.8%. The full subscription by the parent is also a vote of confidence. 
Recent share price weakness is due to the overall weakness in the Chinese equity market, but both macro and operating environments are improving. Selldown is unjustified.


2024 High Conviction: Air China (753 HK) - Update on Proposed Share Placement

China

China Eastern Airlines Corporation Limited, together with its subsidiaries, operates in the civil aviation industry. It offers passenger, cargo, mail delivery, ground, cargo handling, and other extended transportation services.

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China Eastern Airlines (670 HK)

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | China's 2023 Recovery in Ten Charts | (January 2024)

In this insight we document China's ongoing recovery in outbound and domestic tourism demand by sharing with readers ten illustrative charts.

Tracking Traffic

A-H Premium Weekly (Jan 26th): Haier Smart, China Tourism, Conch Cement, Tsingtao Brew, GWM

We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Haier Smart Home, China Tourism, Conch Cement, Tsingtao Brew, Gwmotor, China Energy Engineering,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

A-H Premium Weekly (Jan 19th): Haier Smart, ICBC, China Vanke, ZTE, CR Group, CCCC

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Haier Smart H, ICBC, China Vanke, ZTE, China Rail Gr, China...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

China Tourism and Hospitality Industry: Boom in 2024 New Year Travel Demand

China's National Immigration Administration estimates there will be 1.56m travelers passing through immigration during the 2024 Chinese New Year...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | China's 2023 Recovery in Ten Charts | (January 2024)

In this insight we document China's ongoing recovery in outbound and domestic tourism demand by sharing with readers ten illustrative charts.

Tracking Traffic

A-H Premium Weekly (Jan 26th): Haier Smart, China Tourism, Conch Cement, Tsingtao Brew, GWM

We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Haier Smart Home, China Tourism, Conch Cement, Tsingtao Brew, Gwmotor, China Energy Engineering,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

A-H Premium Weekly (Jan 19th): Haier Smart, ICBC, China Vanke, ZTE, CR Group, CCCC

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Haier Smart H, ICBC, China Vanke, ZTE, China Rail Gr, China...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

China Tourism and Hospitality Industry: Boom in 2024 New Year Travel Demand

China's National Immigration Administration estimates there will be 1.56m travelers passing through immigration during the 2024 Chinese New Year...

Osbert Tang, CFA

2024 High Conviction: Air China (753 HK) - Update on Proposed Share Placement

​Air China plans to raise Rmb6bn and HK$2bn through a new share placement to its parent. This will enhance book value by 11.5% and lower gearing by...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Air China plans to raise Rmb6bn and HK$2bn through a new share placement to its parent. This will enhance book value by 11.5% and lower gearing by...