Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>September's growth in activity still solid for domestic &amp; international traffic</li>
<li>Golden Week anecdotes suggests Chinese tourists remain active, but frugal</li>
<li>Trip.com has shown stellar YTD performance, but airlines offer more upside</li>
</ul>


September's growth in activity still solid for domestic &amp; international traffic
Golden Week anecdotes suggests Chinese tourists remain active, but frugal
Trip.com has shown stellar YTD performance, but airlines offer more upside


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Still-Solid Growth in September | Consider Airlines (October 2024)

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>This is the Brand Spanking New and Extra Spiffy H/A-Share Discount/Premium Weekly designed to help investors see the relationships easily. We used to do it. </li>
<li>We decided to bring it back better. There are lots of cool interactive tables, and charts, heat maps, and comparative data. And 19 Trade Recommendations. </li>
<li>We hope this new version serves readers even better. Feedback is actively solicited to see if we can improve it from here. </li>
</ul>


This is the Brand Spanking New and Extra Spiffy H/A-Share Discount/Premium Weekly designed to help investors see the relationships easily. We used to do it. 
We decided to bring it back better. There are lots of cool interactive tables, and charts, heat maps, and comparative data. And 19 Trade Recommendations. 
We hope this new version serves readers even better. Feedback is actively solicited to see if we can improve it from here. 


The Brand Spanking New Extra Spiffy 🦄H/A-Share Discount/Premium Weekly (As of 11 Aug 2023)

Global Mobility/Transport, Equity Long-Short

Mohshin Aziz

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>In aggregate, traffic among the Big-3 Chinese airlines was up 67% YoY in February and +18% vs 2019. Incontestable proof that China has regained its air travel mojo. </li>
<li>Published March schedules show total implied capacity is 31% higher YoY and 9% higher than 2019 levels. This is driven by domestic travel, international remains depressed. </li>
<li>Driven by domestic travel, international remains depressed. POSITIVE for China Eastern and other North Asian carriers that provide the missing North America link. </li>
</ul>


In aggregate, traffic among the Big-3 Chinese airlines was up 67% YoY in February and +18% vs 2019. Incontestable proof that China has regained its air travel mojo. 
Published March schedules show total implied capacity is 31% higher YoY and 9% higher than 2019 levels. This is driven by domestic travel, international remains depressed. 
Driven by domestic travel, international remains depressed. POSITIVE for China Eastern and other North Asian carriers that provide the missing North America link. 


China BIG-3 Mainland Airlines Traffic 18% Higher than 2019!

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

<ul>
<li>Various statistics suggested that China's tourism and hospitality industry has staged a significant recovery during the 2024 CNY holidays, with traffic surging high double-digit.</li>
<li>While consumers are more cautious about retail product spending, they are willing to spend more on traveling. Such a trend will continue to bode well for the sector.</li>
<li>We like OTAs including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tongcheng-travel-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27363:1" rel="noopener">Tongcheng Travel (780 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd-23a341d0-4f63-4175-a8c5-ee990906cacd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36424:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com (9961 HK)</a> despite their YTD surge in share prices. Meanwhile, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/air-china-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8239:1" rel="noopener">Air China Ltd (H) (753 HK)</a> stays as the top pick.</li>
</ul>


Various statistics suggested that China's tourism and hospitality industry has staged a significant recovery during the 2024 CNY holidays, with traffic surging high double-digit.
While consumers are more cautious about retail product spending, they are willing to spend more on traveling. Such a trend will continue to bode well for the sector.
We like OTAs including Tongcheng Travel (780 HK) and Trip.com (9961 HK) despite their YTD surge in share prices. Meanwhile, Air China Ltd (H) (753 HK) stays as the top pick.


China Tourism and Hospitality Industry: Roundup of a Solid CNY

Tongcheng Travel Holdings  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The upcoming Chinese New Year travel rush is expected to see air passenger volume reach 80m, a 9.8% increase vs. 2019. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tongcheng-travel-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27363:1" rel="noopener">Tongcheng Travel Holdings (780 HK)</a> is a key beneficiary.</li>
<li>In addition to air ticket booking, Tongcheng can gain from demand for related services and products. The focus on lower-tier cities will make it better satisfy their demand. </li>
<li>Its FY24F PER of 15.2x is lower than sector average of 16.4x, yet 3-year EPS CAGR of 30.7% is higher. Its underperformance against <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:180:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com (TCOM US)</a> can be reversed.</li>
</ul>


The upcoming Chinese New Year travel rush is expected to see air passenger volume reach 80m, a 9.8% increase vs. 2019. Tongcheng Travel Holdings (780 HK) is a key beneficiary.
In addition to air ticket booking, Tongcheng can gain from demand for related services and products. The focus on lower-tier cities will make it better satisfy their demand. 
Its FY24F PER of 15.2x is lower than sector average of 16.4x, yet 3-year EPS CAGR of 30.7% is higher. Its underperformance against Trip.com (TCOM US) can be reversed.


China

China Eastern Airlines Corporation Limited, together with its subsidiaries, operates in the civil aviation industry. It offers passenger, cargo, mail delivery, ground, cargo handling, and other extended transportation services.

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China Eastern Airlines (670 HK)

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Still-Solid Growth in September | Consider Airlines (October 2024)

Chinese domestic and outbound air travel continued to show solid growth in September and Q3. The airlines have managed capacity restoration well...

Tracking Traffic

China BIG-3 Mainland Airlines Traffic 18% Higher than 2019!

Chinese airlines see significant increase in traffic, with domestic travel driving growth while international remains depressed. China's air...

Mohshin Aziz

China Tourism and Hospitality Industry: Roundup of a Solid CNY

China's tourism industry sees a strong recovery during the 2024 CNY holidays, with a high double-digit traffic surge. OTAs like Tongcheng and...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Tongcheng Travel (780 HK): We Are Back

CNY travel rush is expected to boost air passenger volume by 9.8% vs. 2019, benefiting Tongcheng. Its focus on lower-tier cities and strong EPS...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Still-Solid Growth in September | Consider Airlines (October 2024)

Chinese domestic and outbound air travel continued to show solid growth in September and Q3. The airlines have managed capacity restoration well...

Tracking Traffic

The Brand Spanking New Extra Spiffy 🦄H/A-Share Discount/Premium Weekly (As of 11 Aug 2023)

Quiddity's New & Improved And Really Quite Spiffy H/A Discount Monitor. All the H/A Pairs, universe & sector metrics, with interactive tables and...

Travis Lundy

China BIG-3 Mainland Airlines Traffic 18% Higher than 2019!

​Chinese airlines see significant increase in traffic, with domestic travel driving growth while international remains depressed. China's air...

Mohshin Aziz

China Tourism and Hospitality Industry: Roundup of a Solid CNY

​China's tourism industry sees a strong recovery during the 2024 CNY holidays, with a high double-digit traffic surge. OTAs like Tongcheng and...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Tongcheng Travel (780 HK): We Are Back

CNY travel rush is expected to boost air passenger volume by 9.8% vs. 2019, benefiting Tongcheng. Its focus on lower-tier cities and strong EPS...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Chinese airlines see significant increase in traffic, with domestic travel driving growth while international remains depressed. China's air...

China's tourism industry sees a strong recovery during the 2024 CNY holidays, with a high double-digit traffic surge. OTAs like Tongcheng and...