Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Asian ETF flows have been subdued during September as markets start to react positively to Fed rate cuts.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sands-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:182:1" rel="noopener">Sands China (1928 HK)</a> parent <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/las-vegas-sands-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:807:1" rel="noopener">Las Vegas Sands (LVS US)</a> continued to increase its stake as Macau tourists rise.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shenzhou-intl-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10415:1" rel="noopener">Shenzhou Intl Group Holdings (2313 HK)</a> is seeing increased China sales.
</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/metallurgical-corporation-of-china-ltd-a8048a44-3f03-4836-916c-1596deef9535" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12762:1" rel="noopener">Metallurgical Corporation of China Ltd (1618 HK)</a> reported a decrease in new contracts for 1H24. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kuaishou-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29725:1" rel="noopener">Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK)</a> early investor sold most of its remaining stake in the company.
</li>
</ul>


Asian ETF flows have been subdued during September as markets start to react positively to Fed rate cuts.

Sands China (1928 HK) parent Las Vegas Sands (LVS US) continued to increase its stake as Macau tourists rise.  Shenzhou Intl Group Holdings (2313 HK) is seeing increased China sales.


Metallurgical Corporation of China Ltd (1618 HK) reported a decrease in new contracts for 1H24. Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK) early investor sold most of its remaining stake in the company.



The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (September 20)

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The companies that suffered exchange losses in FY23 due to Rmb depreciation will now benefit from potential Rmb appreciation in 2H24 and FY25. Meanwhile, gainers will become losers. </li>
<li>The beneficiaries are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/air-china-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8239:1" rel="noopener">Air China Ltd (753 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shenzhen-international-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9:1" rel="noopener">Shenzhen International (152 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-southern-airlines-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1078:1" rel="noopener">China Southern Airlines (1055 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xinjiang-goldwind-science-technology-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10112:1" rel="noopener">Xinjiang Goldwind (2208 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-eastern-airlines-co-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1079:1" rel="noopener">China Eastern Airlines (670 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fosun-tourism-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27439:1" rel="noopener">Fosun Tourism (1992 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-east-education-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27843:1" rel="noopener">China East Education (667 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-communications-construction-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:265:1" rel="noopener">China Communications Construction (1800 HK)</a> may need to book exchange losses (vs. gains in FY23). </li>
</ul>


The companies that suffered exchange losses in FY23 due to Rmb depreciation will now benefit from potential Rmb appreciation in 2H24 and FY25. Meanwhile, gainers will become losers. 
The beneficiaries are Air China Ltd (753 HK), Shenzhen International (152 HK), China Southern Airlines (1055 HK), Xinjiang Goldwind (2208 HK), and China Eastern Airlines (670 HK). 

Fosun Tourism (1992 HK), China East Education (667 HK), and China Communications Construction (1800 HK) may need to book exchange losses (vs. gains in FY23). 


China Strategy: Re-Assessing the Rmb Exchange Impacts

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>China State Construction International and Sinopec Engineering have short term reversal patterns indicating profit taking from recent advances.</li>
<li>China Resources Cement reverses downtrend with volume indicating some near term gains after reporting that 1st half profit was under pressure.</li>
<li>Yum China continues to show downward pressure given the increasing competition in the retail food segment, while Nongfu Spring collapses on news about the safety of its products.</li>
</ul>


China State Construction International and Sinopec Engineering have short term reversal patterns indicating profit taking from recent advances.
China Resources Cement reverses downtrend with volume indicating some near term gains after reporting that 1st half profit was under pressure.
Yum China continues to show downward pressure given the increasing competition in the retail food segment, while Nongfu Spring collapses on news about the safety of its products.


Technically Speaking: Breakouts & Breakdowns: HONG KONG (July 17)

China Railway Signal & Communication / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-railway-signal-communication-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:613:1" rel="noopener">China Railway Signal &amp; Communication (3969 HK)</a>'s latest order backlog is estimated to be Rmb173.7bn, enough to cover FY24F revenue by 4.4x.</li>
<li>Gross margin has sustained expansion, reaching a record high of 27.8% in 1Q24. Higher R&amp;D expenses will benefit its medium-term earnings.</li>
<li>Net cash equals 59% of the share price, allowing it to maintain over 50% payout and potentially higher going forward. Operating cash flow has also turned around to positive.</li>
</ul>



China Railway Signal &amp; Communication (3969 HK)'s latest order backlog is estimated to be Rmb173.7bn, enough to cover FY24F revenue by 4.4x.
Gross margin has sustained expansion, reaching a record high of 27.8% in 1Q24. Higher R&amp;D expenses will benefit its medium-term earnings.
Net cash equals 59% of the share price, allowing it to maintain over 50% payout and potentially higher going forward. Operating cash flow has also turned around to positive.


China CRSC (3969 HK): Well Worth the Premium

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 146 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 105.3% as of Jun 14th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by 1.6ppt week-on-week, led by consumer discretionary, information technology, financials and offset by consumer staples, utilities, real estate.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for  China Tourism, CGN Power, Huadian Power, Hua Hong Semi, Huaneng Power.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 146 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 105.3% as of Jun 14th.
The average A-H premium changed by 1.6ppt week-on-week, led by consumer discretionary, information technology, financials and offset by consumer staples, utilities, real estate.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for  China Tourism, CGN Power, Huadian Power, Hua Hong Semi, Huaneng Power.


A-H Premium Weekly (Jun 14th): China Tourism, CGN Power, Huadian Power, Hua Hong Semi, Huaneng Power

China

China Communications Construction Company Ltd. is a transportation infrastructure group.  The Company is involved in infrastructure construction, infrastructure design, dredging, and port machinery manufacturing.  China Communications has operations worldwide.

China Communications Construction (1800 HK)

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

China Communications Construction (1800 HK)

The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (September 20)

Sands China's parent increases its stake. Shenzhou is benefits from increased China sales from a health-conscious consumer. MCC new contracts...

David Mudd

China Strategy: Re-Assessing the Rmb Exchange Impacts

With the US kick-starting the lower interest rate cycle with a 50bp cut overnight and indicated an expectation of an aggregate further 50bp cut in...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Technically Speaking: Breakouts & Breakdowns: HONG KONG (July 17)

Sinopec Engineering and China State Construction have entered short term corrections while CRC has broken its downtrend in the near term. Yum...

David Mudd

China CRSC (3969 HK): Well Worth the Premium

China CRSC has secured backlog and sustained margin improvement. High R&D expenses will drive the medium-term outlook. Net cash equals 59% of the...

Osbert Tang, CFA

A-H Premium Weekly (Jun 14th): China Tourism, CGN Power, Huadian Power, Hua Hong Semi, Huaneng Power

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for China Tourism, CGN Power, Huadian Power, Hua Hong Semi,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (September 20)

Sands China's parent increases its stake. Shenzhou is benefits from increased China sales from a health-conscious consumer. MCC new contracts...

David Mudd

China Strategy: Re-Assessing the Rmb Exchange Impacts

With the US kick-starting the lower interest rate cycle with a 50bp cut overnight and indicated an expectation of an aggregate further 50bp cut in...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Technically Speaking: Breakouts & Breakdowns: HONG KONG (July 17)

Sinopec Engineering and China State Construction have entered short term corrections while CRC has broken its downtrend in the near term. Yum...

David Mudd

China CRSC (3969 HK): Well Worth the Premium

​China CRSC has secured backlog and sustained margin improvement. High R&D expenses will drive the medium-term outlook. Net cash equals 59% of the...

Osbert Tang, CFA

A-H Premium Weekly (Jun 14th): China Tourism, CGN Power, Huadian Power, Hua Hong Semi, Huaneng Power

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for China Tourism, CGN Power, Huadian Power, Hua Hong Semi,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

China CRSC has secured backlog and sustained margin improvement. High R&D expenses will drive the medium-term outlook. Net cash equals 59% of the...