CEO, A. Stotz Investment Research

Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA

Quantamental Investing to beat Benchmarks

A. Stotz Investment Research

We pick stocks. We construct portfolios. All our effort is focused on how to better pick stocks and construct portfolios. We serve fund management companies, family offices, and high net worth individuals.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Solid and strong long-term earnings growth and high level of cash sales relative to its sector</li><li>Future growth secured by CK’s 28 ongoing projects and another seven projects signed in 9M17 worth US$1.5bn including profitable MRT orange and blue line extension</li><li>Given CK’s strong competitive position and solid track record, it is in a prime position to win the bidding on large portion of government’s MRT and expressway projects open for bidding in 2018 valued at US$15bn</li><li>CK trades above ASEAN Capital Goods at 18CE* 1.9x PB, ROE is in line, and the company has shown a good improvement in cash conversion cycle</li><li>Risks: Delayed auctions from government, construction delays</li></ul>* Consensus Estimates

Solid and strong long-term earnings growth and high level of cash sales relative to its sectorFuture growth secured by CK’s 28 ongoing projects and another seven projects signed in 9M17 worth US$1.5bn including profitable MRT orange and blue line extensionGiven CK’s strong competitive position and solid track record, it is in a prime position to win the bidding on large portion of government’s MRT and expressway projects open for bidding in 2018 valued at US$15bnCK trades above ASEAN Capital Goods at 18CE* 1.9x PB, ROE is in line, and the company has shown a good improvement in cash conversion cycleRisks: Delayed auctions from government, construction delays* Consensus Estimates

CK (CK TB): Thai Contractor Gains from Mass Transit and Utilities

Asean-focused. Ex-Head of Thai Research

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Italian Thai Development / Equity Bottom-Up

Two separate branches of the Karnasutra family founded the country's biggest contractor Italian-Thai (by backlog) and TV broadcaster Channel 7 BBTV. Another branch shortly ran the national power company EGAT and includes a CFO of B. Grimm in Thailand. Track record hasn't been that great though. ITD dabbled in non-core businesses (winery, hotels, airlines) in the past and has lost money as contractors, while Channel 7 has now fallen under the control of the Ratanarak banking family. Nevertheless, there's no denying their size and influence in Thai business, the strange nature of the corporate culture, and some interesting discussions about their more successful (if smaller) rivals like STEC, CK, and BEC World.

Two separate branches of the Karnasutra family founded the country's biggest contractor Italian-Thai (by backlog) and TV broadcaster Channel 7 BBTV. Another branch shortly ran the national power company EGAT and includes a CFO of B. Grimm in Thailand. Track record hasn't been that great though. ITD dabbled in non-core businesses (winery, hotels, airlines) in the past and has lost money as contractors, while Channel 7 has now fallen under the control of the Ratanarak banking family. Nevertheless, there's no denying their size and influence in Thai business, the strange nature of the corporate culture, and some interesting discussions about their more successful (if smaller) rivals like STEC, CK, and BEC World.

Hidden Tigers (Episode 2): The Three-Pronged Family Empire

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Over the past 20 years, Thailand faced two financial crisis, namely Tom Yum Goong in 1997 and Lehman in 2008. Discounting the political nonsense that is just part of life down here, we think there are five important lessons to take away, regarding: 1) the importance of investors; 2) liabilities-cash flow matching; 3) sticking to core competencies as well as avoiding : 4) currency pegs to dollars (or any currency); and 5) capital controls. No event in Thai business history has transformed the landscape more than the 1997 crisis. In this review, we highlight a few anecdotes of those who survived and those who didn't (at least not in their original forms).

Over the past 20 years, Thailand faced two financial crisis, namely Tom Yum Goong in 1997 and Lehman in 2008. Discounting the political nonsense that is just part of life down here, we think there are five important lessons to take away, regarding: 1) the importance of investors; 2) liabilities-cash flow matching; 3) sticking to core competencies as well as avoiding : 4) currency pegs to dollars (or any currency); and 5) capital controls. No event in Thai business history has transformed the landscape more than the 1997 crisis. In this review, we highlight a few anecdotes of those who survived and those who didn't (at least not in their original forms).

Five Biggest Lessons from Thai Financial Crisis

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income, Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Geoff Howie

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income

Asia’s leading multi-asset exchange

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

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With about 40% of listed companies and over 80% of listed bonds originating outside of Singapore as well as established linkages across the region and in Europe, SGX is Asia’s most international and connected exchange. Offering a full suite of derivatives products across Asian equity indices, commodities and currencies, SGX is the world’s most liquid international market for the benchmark equity indices of China, India, Japan and ASEAN.

As Asia’s pioneering central counterparty, SGX is globally recognised for its risk management and clearing capabilities, and was one of the first globally to adopt the Principles for Financial Market Infrastructure.

Headquartered in AAA-rated Singapore, SGX has over 800 employees including offices in Beijing, Chicago, Hong Kong, London, New York, Mumbai, San Francisco, Shanghai and Tokyo.

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§  The SGX Maritime &amp; Offshore Services (MOE) Index, a benchmark for the MOE Sector, has rebounded 19.7% from its trough on 1 Sep 2016 in tandem with the recovery of crude oil prices, which may be an indication that the sector could be bottoming out.
 
§  Despite the rally, the 18 constituents within the SGX MOE Index are trading at an average current price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.7x, with 10 of them trading below their book values.
 
§  Consensus estimates are expecting oil prices to stabilise and…
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§  The SGX Maritime &amp; Offshore Services (MOE) Index, a benchmark for the MOE Sector, has rebounded 19.7% from its trough on 1 Sep 2016 in tandem with the recovery of crude oil prices, which may be an indication that the sector could be bottoming out.
 
§  Despite the rally, the 18 constituents within the SGX MOE Index are trading at an average current price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.7x, with 10 of them trading below their book values.
 
§  Consensus estimates are expecting oil prices to stabilise and…



SGX's MOE Sector Sustains 4Q16 Momentum into 2017

<ul>
<li>In the 2016 calendar year, more than 100 companies were involved in share buybacks, with the buyback considerations amounting to S$826 million. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/74" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:74">Singapore Airlines Ltd (SIA SP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/114" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:114">Oversea Chinese Banking Corp. Limited (OCBC SP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/2894" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2894">Global Logistic Properties Ltd (GLP SP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/765" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:765">Olam International Ltd (OLAM SP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/22" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22">DBS Group Holdings Ltd (DBS SP)</a> ranked highest in terms of buyback consideration value over the calendar year.</li>
<li>More recently, for the month of December 2016, there were a total of 13,915,200 shares…</li>
</ul>


In the 2016 calendar year, more than 100 companies were involved in share buybacks, with the buyback considerations amounting to S$826 million. Singapore Airlines Ltd (SIA SP), Oversea Chinese Banking Corp. Limited (OCBC SP), Global Logistic Properties Ltd (GLP SP), Olam International Ltd (OLAM SP) and DBS Group Holdings Ltd (DBS SP) ranked highest in terms of buyback consideration value over the calendar year.
More recently, for the month of December 2016, there were a total of 13,915,200 shares…


Over 100 Firms Conducted Share Buybacks Totaling S$826M in 2016

Thailand

Ch. Karnchang Public Company Limited provides construction services to public and private sectors including construction of expressways, public utilities, and industrial plants. Through it subsidiaries, the Company distributes construction materials.

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Ch. Karnchang Public (CK TB)

CK (CK TB): Thai Contractor Gains from Mass Transit and Utilities

Solid and strong long-term earnings growth and high level of cash sales relative to its sector Future growth secured by CK’s 28 ongoing projects...

A. Stotz Investment Research

Hidden Tigers (Episode 2): The Three-Pronged Family Empire

Two separate branches of the Karnasutra family founded the country's biggest contractor Italian-Thai (by backlog) and TV broadcaster Channel 7...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Five Biggest Lessons from Thai Financial Crisis

Over the past 20 years, Thailand faced two financial crisis, namely Tom Yum Goong in 1997 and Lehman in 2008. Discounting the political nonsense...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

SGX's MOE Sector Sustains 4Q16 Momentum into 2017

§ The SGX Maritime & Offshore Services (MOE) Index, a benchmark for the MOE Sector, has rebounded 19.7% from its trough on 1 Sep 2016 in...

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

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CK (CK TB): Thai Contractor Gains from Mass Transit and Utilities

Solid and strong long-term earnings growth and high level of cash sales relative to its sector Future growth secured by CK’s 28 ongoing projects...

A. Stotz Investment Research

Hidden Tigers (Episode 2): The Three-Pronged Family Empire

Two separate branches of the Karnasutra family founded the country's biggest contractor Italian-Thai (by backlog) and TV broadcaster Channel 7...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Five Biggest Lessons from Thai Financial Crisis

Over the past 20 years, Thailand faced two financial crisis, namely Tom Yum Goong in 1997 and Lehman in 2008. Discounting the political nonsense...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

SGX's MOE Sector Sustains 4Q16 Momentum into 2017

§ The SGX Maritime & Offshore Services (MOE) Index, a benchmark for the MOE Sector, has rebounded 19.7% from its trough on 1 Sep 2016 in...

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Over 100 Firms Conducted Share Buybacks Totaling S$826M in 2016

In the 2016 calendar year, more than 100 companies were involved in share buybacks, with the buyback considerations amounting to S$826 million....

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)