Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The 3Q24 earnings performance of 686 stocks in the SET Index (accounting for 95% of total market capitalization) totaled Bt207,918mn, declining by 19% QoQ and 24% YoY.</li><li>However, excluding energy and petrochemical stocks, the remaining sectors showed stable performances QoQ and significant YoY growth.</li><li>For the 163 stocks covered by the Bloomberg consensus, net profit came in at Bt176,516mn, down 23% YoY and 22% QoQ, and about 8% below the Bloomberg consensus estimates. </li></ul>

The 3Q24 earnings performance of 686 stocks in the SET Index (accounting for 95% of total market capitalization) totaled Bt207,918mn, declining by 19% QoQ and 24% YoY.However, excluding energy and petrochemical stocks, the remaining sectors showed stable performances QoQ and significant YoY growth.For the 163 stocks covered by the Bloomberg consensus, net profit came in at Bt176,516mn, down 23% YoY and 22% QoQ, and about 8% below the Bloomberg consensus estimates. 

Special Report: 3Q24 Earnings Summary - November 20, 2024

<ul><li>The latest Global Fund Manager Survey by Bank of America polled 179 global fund managers with a total NAV of USD503bn.</li><li>The survey, which took place between November 1-7, includes 22% of responses gathered after the US election results were announced — reflecting partial recognition of the outcome, with Trump being elected US president and the Republican Party likely to have control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate.</li><li>The survey reveals significant shifts in asset allocations in response to these developments. The shift is driven by the US economy showing stronger signs of a "no landing" scenario, while the global downward interest rate cycle appears less pronounced than previously expected. </li></ul>

The latest Global Fund Manager Survey by Bank of America polled 179 global fund managers with a total NAV of USD503bn.The survey, which took place between November 1-7, includes 22% of responses gathered after the US election results were announced — reflecting partial recognition of the outcome, with Trump being elected US president and the Republican Party likely to have control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate.The survey reveals significant shifts in asset allocations in response to these developments. The shift is driven by the US economy showing stronger signs of a "no landing" scenario, while the global downward interest rate cycle appears less pronounced than previously expected. 

FMS Outlook Following Trump's Victory as US President - November 19, 2024

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>We expect economic growth in 2H24E to accelerate beyond the 1.9% YoY expansion seen in 1H24E, serving as a key driver in achieving the revised 2024E GDP growth forecast of 2.55% YoY (up from 2.5% previously).</li><li>This acceleration will also create positive sentiment for stocks benefiting from a top-down approach, particularly those related to government spending, tourism, and the banking sector.</li><li>Government spending is expected to rise thanks to accelerated budget disbursements, while the tourism sector should see strong gains, with tourist arrivals projected to hit 36.5mn by yearend (compared to 20.6mn for 7M24). </li></ul>

We expect economic growth in 2H24E to accelerate beyond the 1.9% YoY expansion seen in 1H24E, serving as a key driver in achieving the revised 2024E GDP growth forecast of 2.55% YoY (up from 2.5% previously).This acceleration will also create positive sentiment for stocks benefiting from a top-down approach, particularly those related to government spending, tourism, and the banking sector.Government spending is expected to rise thanks to accelerated budget disbursements, while the tourism sector should see strong gains, with tourist arrivals projected to hit 36.5mn by yearend (compared to 20.6mn for 7M24). 

Economic Update: 2Q24 GDP Growth - August 20, 2024

<ul><li>Recent meetings of major global central banks have revealed differing policy directions.</li><li>While the ECB decided to cut the policy interest rate for the first time in five years to mitigate economic slowdown pressures, the Fed maintained its strict tightening monetary policy to keep inflation within the target range.</li><li>These divergent policies have triggered short-term fund inflows toward the US. We recommend a trading buy on the SET and suggest CK, BEM and CPALL, which are benefitting from economic stimulus measures, including the acceleration of budget disbursement and the Digital Wallet project. </li></ul>

Recent meetings of major global central banks have revealed differing policy directions.While the ECB decided to cut the policy interest rate for the first time in five years to mitigate economic slowdown pressures, the Fed maintained its strict tightening monetary policy to keep inflation within the target range.These divergent policies have triggered short-term fund inflows toward the US. We recommend a trading buy on the SET and suggest CK, BEM and CPALL, which are benefitting from economic stimulus measures, including the acceleration of budget disbursement and the Digital Wallet project. 

Economic Update: Central Banks >>> FED & ECB

<ul><li>Bank of America’s Global Fund Manager Survey for March maintained a bullish stance on equity investment, with a consistent increase in the weighting for the fifth consecutive month, now standing at 28% overweight (OW), compared to 21% OW in February and 9% OW in January.</li><li>There has been a notable shift toward allocating more investment to equities in the EU, global emerging markets (GEM) and Japan, leading to a reduction in the weighting on US equities to 8% OW from 21% OW.</li><li>This shift is underpinned by the belief that the global economy is poised to surpass projections. </li></ul>

Bank of America’s Global Fund Manager Survey for March maintained a bullish stance on equity investment, with a consistent increase in the weighting for the fifth consecutive month, now standing at 28% overweight (OW), compared to 21% OW in February and 9% OW in January.There has been a notable shift toward allocating more investment to equities in the EU, global emerging markets (GEM) and Japan, leading to a reduction in the weighting on US equities to 8% OW from 21% OW.This shift is underpinned by the belief that the global economy is poised to surpass projections. 

Special Report: FMS Still Favors Equities but More Diversified

Thailand

Ch. Karnchang Public Company Limited provides construction services to public and private sectors including construction of expressways, public utilities, and industrial plants. Through it subsidiaries, the Company distributes construction materials.

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Ch. Karnchang Public (CK TB)

Special Report: 3Q24 Earnings Summary - November 20, 2024

The 3Q24 earnings performance of 686 stocks in the SET Index (accounting for 95% of total market capitalization) totaled Bt207,918mn, declining by...

Krungthai XSpring

FMS Outlook Following Trump's Victory as US President - November 19, 2024

The survey, which took place between November 1-7, includes 22% of responses gathered after the US election results were announced — reflecting...

Krungthai XSpring

Economic Update: 2Q24 GDP Growth - August 20, 2024

We expect economic growth in 2H24E to accelerate beyond the 1.9% YoY expansion seen in 1H24E, serving as a key driver in achieving the revised...

Krungthai XSpring

Economic Update: Central Banks >>> FED & ECB

While the ECB decided to cut the policy interest rate for the first time in five years to mitigate economic slowdown pressures, the Fed maintained...

Krungthai XSpring

Special Report: FMS Still Favors Equities but More Diversified

Bank of America’s Global Fund Manager Survey for March maintained a bullish stance on equity investment, with a consistent increase in the...

Krungthai XSpring

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