ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

In Equity Sales and Research for more than 25 years covering Asian markets. Possesses in-depth knowledge of a wide range of companies, economies, and markets in Asia. Over his career, he has specialised in HK/China and ASEAN markets at various different Investment Banks, most recently heading equities in Indonesia for Bank of America Merrill Lynch in Jakarta for more than three years. Whilst in Jakarta, he produced a well-read daily and weekly product on the Indonesian market, which included company visits, as well as political, economic and sector commentary. A former racing skier, who enjoys ultra-marathons and surfing in his spare time.

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div class="content-highlight">This week's offering in <a href="mailto:ASEAN@Smartkarma" target="_blank">ASEAN@Smartkarma</a> includes the usual eclectic mix bottom up and top down and thematic insights from across South East Asia. I include a brief summary below. For a fuller account, please scroll down to the detailed section below. I also include in the detailed sections initial notes from a fascinating company visit with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/19482" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19482:1">Blue Bird Tbk Pt (BIRD IJ)</a>, which looks very well positioned to weather the threat from App-based players.</div>In his insight, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/the-philippines-political-temperature-edges-up" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:16989">The Philippines: Political Temperature Edges Up</a>, economist <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/35" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:35">Manu Bhaskaran</a> notes that while the passage of the revenue-neutral TRAIN-2 is clearly a step in the right direction by improving the business environment in the Philippines, a concerted effort ranging from cutting bureaucratic red tape to easing the foreign ownership limits across industries is still required to attract greater foreign investment. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ap-ap-tb-cheap-real-estate-developer-reaping-benefits-from-jv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:16990">AP (AP TB): Cheap Real Estate Developer Reaping Benefits from JV</a>,  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/756" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:756">Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA</a> comments on this Thai Property developer. The company operates via two business segments, low-rise, and high-rise property. In his insight, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/yoma-strategic-on-the-ground-update-on-yoma-central-development-progress" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:16993">Yoma Strategic – On the Ground Update on Yoma Central Development Progress</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/2053" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:2053">Royston Foo</a> zeros in on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/65" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:65:1">Yoma Strategic Hldgs Ltd (YOMA SP)</a> after a visit to Yangon over the weekend.In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/philippine-telcos-third-entrant-noise-to-persist" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:16920">Philippine Telcos: Third Entrant Noise to Persist</a>, our friends at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/151" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="companies:151">New Street Research</a> note that when they last wrote about the Philippines, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/1916" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1916">Iain Johnston</a> was hopeful for an improved telecom market in the Philippines with optimism over improving free cash flow (FCF) and CapEx guidance reductions. In his insight, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/indonesia-jokowi-girds-for-the-2019-election" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:16998">Indonesia: Jokowi Girds for the 2019 Election</a>, economist <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/35" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:35">Manu Bhaskaran</a> comments on recent economic figures and highlights that Jokowi's most recent cabinet reshuffle looks like a shrewd move ahead of next year's Presidential election.  In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/megawide-a-mega-airport-operator-in-the-making" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:16825">Megawide: A Mega Airport Operator in the Making</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/1006" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1006">Henry Soediarko</a> zeros in on construction company <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/23077" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23077:1">Megawide Construction Corp (MWIDE PM)</a> and highlights the positives of its move into operating airports in the Philippines. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/disa-10x-bagger-by-2020" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:16985">DiSa: 10x Bagger by 2020?</a> , small-cap specialist <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/1208" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1208">Nicolas Van Broekhoven</a> circles back to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/15058" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15058:1">DiSa (DISA SP)</a> which he suggests could provide binary returns. The company has invented the <a href="http://www.digital-safety.sg/" target="_blank">Digital Safety</a> asset protection software which <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/11134" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11134:1">Wal Mart Stores Inc (WMT US)</a> is implementing across its US store network since 2Q17. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/aem-ups-guidance-for-fy-2018-by-24" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:17017">AEM: Ups Guidance for FY 2018 by 24%</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/1208" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1208">Nicolas Van Broekhoven</a> revisits <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/11019" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11019:1">Aem Holdings Ltd (AEM SP)</a> after the company updated investors last week that it was raising its guidance for 2017/2018 revenues and operating profits.  In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/inkp-inkp-ij-indonesia-s-largest-paper-producer" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:17030">INKP (INKP IJ): Indonesia’s Largest Paper Producer</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/756" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:756">Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA</a> takes a look at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/20064" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20064:1">Indah Kiat Pulp &amp; Paper Tbk (INKP IJ)</a>, the biggest producer of paper pulp, paper, and paper-based products in Indonesia.In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/thailand-surging-baht-increasingly-a-policy-concern" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:17059">Thailand: Surging Baht Increasingly a Policy Concern</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/35" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:35">Manu Bhaskaran</a> notes that while a rising Baht could crimp the competitiveness of Thai exports and hence dent economic vigor, the strength of the currency is a reflection of the economic upswing that is firmly underway in Thailand. t.In their insight, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sq-top-mining-contractor-seeking-regional-opportunities" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:17023">SQ: Top Mining Contractor Seeking Regional Opportunities</a>, our friends at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/965" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="companies:965">Country Group</a> initiate coverage on mining contractor <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/26720" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26720:1">Sahakol Equipment PCL (SQ TB)</a> with a BUY rating and a 2018E target price of Bt6.4, derived from a PER of 15.5x, on par with global material peers.In his insight, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ck-ck-tb-thai-contractor-gains-from-mass-transit-and-utilities" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:17062">CK (CK TB): Thai Contractor Gains from Mass Transit and Utilities</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/756" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:756">Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA</a> zeros in on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/7587" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7587:1">Ch. Karnchang Public Co Ltd (CK TB)</a> . The company's future growth secured by its 28 ongoing projects and another seven projects signed in 9M17.In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/surya-citra-media-macro-buy-targets-5-000" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:17065">Surya Citra Media Macro Buy Targets 5,000</a>, technical insight provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/381" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:381">Thomas Schroeder </a>works his magic on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/14739" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14739:1">Surya Citra Media Pt Tbk (SCMA IJ)</a>, where he takes a positive view.In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/4q17-gdp-eases-although-robust-demand-noted" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:17035">4Q17 GDP Eases Although Robust Demand Noted</a>, economist <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/1930" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1930">Jun Trinidad</a> notes that lower than expected 4Q17 GDP growth of 6.6%YoY contributed to the robust growth of 6.7% in 2017, the first year of President Duterte’s term, although less stellar than the 2016 (election year) growth (6.9%).In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/scb-trades-size-for-relevance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:17046">SCB Trades Size for Relevance</a>, our Thai guru <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/766" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:766">Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA</a> notes that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/214" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:214:1">Siam Commercial Bank Pub Co (SCB TB)</a> underperformed most of the large Thai banks in 2017, despite being one of the most profitable. He reflects on his reasons for investing in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/214" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:214:1">Siam Commercial Bank Pub Co (SCB TB)</a>.In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/yns-yns-mk-leveraging-off-japanese-giants" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:17101">YNS (YNS MK): Leveraging off Japanese Giants</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/756" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:756">Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA</a> works his magic on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/3252" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3252:1">Yinson Holdings Bhd (YNS MK)</a>, which enjoys the sixth largest position globally by fleet size for floating oil and gas production storage and offloading vessels (FPSO), an industry niche market with limited competition. in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sector-capsule-internet-retailing-in-indonesia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:17073">Sector Capsule: Internet Retailing in Indonesia</a>, our friends at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/483" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="companies:483">Euromonitor International Ltd.</a> cast their eye over the internet retailing space in Indonesia and note that government support and a shift in consumer behavior are the two major factors driving fast growth in 2017.In his insight, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/reality-check-2018-is-true-worth-a-bet-after-the-asset-sales" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:17103">Reality Check 2018: Is True Worth a Bet After the Asset Sales</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/766" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:766">Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA</a> takes a good look at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/8" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8:1">True Corp Pcl (TRUE TB)</a>, which has finally cut the Gordian knot with the asset sales to its infrastructure fund, that will net Bt30bn in profits over time. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/mono-media-giant-meeting-growing-entertainment-demand" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:17133">MONO: Media Giant Meeting Growing Entertainment Demand</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/756" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:756">Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA</a> zeros in on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/4869" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4869:1">Mono Technology Co Ltd (MONO TB)</a>, which operates two main business segments including media &amp; content, and entertainment.In his weekly insight, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/singapore-property-weekly-recap-20th-jan-to-26th-jan-2018" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:17140">Singapore Property Weekly Recap (20th Jan to 26th Jan 2018)</a>, property guru <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/2053" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:2053">Royston Foo</a> comments on the top five news stories on the sector over the last week.In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/thai-macro-watch-january-18-the-strong-baht-scare" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:17145">Thai Macro Watch (January’18): The Strong Baht Scare</a>, Thai guru <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/766" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:766">Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA</a> lays out his views on the implications of the stronger Baht.In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kawasan-industri-jababeka-go-east-young-man-on-the-ground-in-j-town" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:16888">Kawasan Industri Jababeka - Go East Young Man</a>, former Jakartan <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/937" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:937">Angus Mackintosh</a> sees <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/7755" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7755:1">Kawasan Industri Jababeka Tbk Pt (KIJA IJ)</a> continuing to be a key industrial estate proxy for Indonesia, both through its core Cikarang estate, as well as through its fast-growing Kendal estate in Central Java.

This week's offering in ASEAN@Smartkarma includes the usual eclectic mix bottom up and top down and thematic insights from across South East Asia. I include a brief summary below. For a fuller account, please scroll down to the detailed section below. I also include in the detailed sections initial notes from a fascinating company visit with Blue Bird Tbk Pt (BIRD IJ), which looks very well positioned to weather the threat from App-based players.In his insight, The Philippines: Political Temperature Edges Up, economist Manu Bhaskaran notes that while the passage of the revenue-neutral TRAIN-2 is clearly a step in the right direction by improving the business environment in the Philippines, a concerted effort ranging from cutting bureaucratic red tape to easing the foreign ownership limits across industries is still required to attract greater foreign investment. In AP (AP TB): Cheap Real Estate Developer Reaping Benefits from JV,  Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA comments on this Thai Property developer. The company operates via two business segments, low-rise, and high-rise property. In his insight, Yoma Strategic – On the Ground Update on Yoma Central Development Progress, Royston Foo zeros in on Yoma Strategic Hldgs Ltd (YOMA SP) after a visit to Yangon over the weekend.In Philippine Telcos: Third Entrant Noise to Persist, our friends at New Street Research note that when they last wrote about the Philippines, Iain Johnston was hopeful for an improved telecom market in the Philippines with optimism over improving free cash flow (FCF) and CapEx guidance reductions. In his insight, Indonesia: Jokowi Girds for the 2019 Election, economist Manu Bhaskaran comments on recent economic figures and highlights that Jokowi's most recent cabinet reshuffle looks like a shrewd move ahead of next year's Presidential election.  In Megawide: A Mega Airport Operator in the Making, Henry Soediarko zeros in on construction company Megawide Construction Corp (MWIDE PM) and highlights the positives of its move into operating airports in the Philippines. In DiSa: 10x Bagger by 2020? , small-cap specialist Nicolas Van Broekhoven circles back to DiSa (DISA SP) which he suggests could provide binary returns. The company has invented the Digital Safety asset protection software which Wal Mart Stores Inc (WMT US) is implementing across its US store network since 2Q17. In AEM: Ups Guidance for FY 2018 by 24%, Nicolas Van Broekhoven revisits Aem Holdings Ltd (AEM SP) after the company updated investors last week that it was raising its guidance for 2017/2018 revenues and operating profits.  In INKP (INKP IJ): Indonesia’s Largest Paper Producer, Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA takes a look at Indah Kiat Pulp &amp; Paper Tbk (INKP IJ), the biggest producer of paper pulp, paper, and paper-based products in Indonesia.In Thailand: Surging Baht Increasingly a Policy Concern, Manu Bhaskaran notes that while a rising Baht could crimp the competitiveness of Thai exports and hence dent economic vigor, the strength of the currency is a reflection of the economic upswing that is firmly underway in Thailand. t.In their insight, SQ: Top Mining Contractor Seeking Regional Opportunities, our friends at Country Group initiate coverage on mining contractor Sahakol Equipment PCL (SQ TB) with a BUY rating and a 2018E target price of Bt6.4, derived from a PER of 15.5x, on par with global material peers.In his insight, CK (CK TB): Thai Contractor Gains from Mass Transit and Utilities, Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA zeros in on Ch. Karnchang Public Co Ltd (CK TB) . The company's future growth secured by its 28 ongoing projects and another seven projects signed in 9M17.In Surya Citra Media Macro Buy Targets 5,000, technical insight provider Thomas Schroeder works his magic on Surya Citra Media Pt Tbk (SCMA IJ), where he takes a positive view.In 4Q17 GDP Eases Although Robust Demand Noted, economist Jun Trinidad notes that lower than expected 4Q17 GDP growth of 6.6%YoY contributed to the robust growth of 6.7% in 2017, the first year of President Duterte’s term, although less stellar than the 2016 (election year) growth (6.9%).In SCB Trades Size for Relevance, our Thai guru Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA notes that Siam Commercial Bank Pub Co (SCB TB) underperformed most of the large Thai banks in 2017, despite being one of the most profitable. He reflects on his reasons for investing in Siam Commercial Bank Pub Co (SCB TB).In YNS (YNS MK): Leveraging off Japanese Giants, Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA works his magic on Yinson Holdings Bhd (YNS MK), which enjoys the sixth largest position globally by fleet size for floating oil and gas production storage and offloading vessels (FPSO), an industry niche market with limited competition. in Sector Capsule: Internet Retailing in Indonesia, our friends at Euromonitor International Ltd. cast their eye over the internet retailing space in Indonesia and note that government support and a shift in consumer behavior are the two major factors driving fast growth in 2017.In his insight, Reality Check 2018: Is True Worth a Bet After the Asset Sales, Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA takes a good look at True Corp Pcl (TRUE TB), which has finally cut the Gordian knot with the asset sales to its infrastructure fund, that will net Bt30bn in profits over time. In MONO: Media Giant Meeting Growing Entertainment Demand, Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA zeros in on Mono Technology Co Ltd (MONO TB), which operates two main business segments including media &amp; content, and entertainment.In his weekly insight, Singapore Property Weekly Recap (20th Jan to 26th Jan 2018), property guru Royston Foo comments on the top five news stories on the sector over the last week.In Thai Macro Watch (January’18): The Strong Baht Scare, Thai guru Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA lays out his views on the implications of the stronger Baht.In Kawasan Industri Jababeka - Go East Young Man, former Jakartan Angus Mackintosh sees Kawasan Industri Jababeka Tbk Pt (KIJA IJ) continuing to be a key industrial estate proxy for Indonesia, both through its core Cikarang estate, as well as through its fast-growing Kendal estate in Central Java. 

The Week that Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Cheap Real Estate, Internet Retailing, and Binary Returns