Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Quiddity's "Who is Ready" series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/furuya-metal-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5196:1" rel="noopener">Furuya Metal (7826 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/visional-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32977:1" rel="noopener">Visional (4194 JP)</a> are expected to be included in the TOPIX index at the end of January 2024</li>
<li>There are couple of other pre-event names that we have been tracking for the past few months.</li>
</ul>


Quiddity's "Who is Ready" series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.

Furuya Metal (7826 JP) and Visional (4194 JP) are expected to be included in the TOPIX index at the end of January 2024
There are couple of other pre-event names that we have been tracking for the past few months.


TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Jan 2024)

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>Diaper-Making machine maker <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zuiko-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5568:1" rel="noopener">Zuiko Corp (6279 JP)</a> late last year introduced a shareholder benefit coupon program, and the stock has flown. Earnings improved from the trough too. </li>
<li>Now that the market cap is high enough, the company has applied to, and is now approved, to join TSE Prime, which means a TOPIX inclusion at end-June 2023.</li>
<li>With 30 days of 6mo ADV, and much more of longer average ADV, this looks like a win, but there are.... considerations. Shareholder structure matters. Yet again. </li>
</ul>


Diaper-Making machine maker Zuiko Corp (6279 JP) late last year introduced a shareholder benefit coupon program, and the stock has flown. Earnings improved from the trough too. 
Now that the market cap is high enough, the company has applied to, and is now approved, to join TSE Prime, which means a TOPIX inclusion at end-June 2023.
With 30 days of 6mo ADV, and much more of longer average ADV, this looks like a win, but there are.... considerations. Shareholder structure matters. Yet again. 


ZUIKO (6279 JP) Move to TSE Prime and TOPIX - Again, Shareholder Structure Matters

David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>The trade in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a>'s Tender offer Buyback is to understand what YOU can do in your particular position.</li>
<li>Despite <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-properties-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5775:1" rel="noopener">Swire Properties (1972 HK)</a>'s recent share buyback, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-pacific-ltd-cl-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10433:1" rel="noopener">Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK)</a> is still preferable on a look-through P/B of 0.34x.</li>
<li>Kirin bumps the Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fancl-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15862:1" rel="noopener">Fancl (4921 JP)</a>. Given market gyration, it may represent enough of a switching opportunity to let those who still object in principle to re-allocate elsewhere. </li>
</ul>


The trade in Toyota Motor (7203 JP)'s Tender offer Buyback is to understand what YOU can do in your particular position.
Despite Swire Properties (1972 HK)'s recent share buyback, Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK) is still preferable on a look-through P/B of 0.34x.
Kirin bumps the Offer for Fancl (4921 JP). Given market gyration, it may represent enough of a switching opportunity to let those who still object in principle to re-allocate elsewhere. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: Toyota, Swire, Fancl, Barito Complex, Descente

<ul>
<li>Murakami to tender stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jsr-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17620:1" rel="noopener">JSR Corp (4185 JP)</a>? Maybe the "double arb": i.e. short on swap, long on cash, will tender the cash, remain short the back end.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/austal-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14420:1" rel="noopener">Austal Ltd (ASB AU)</a> rejected (for now) <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hanwha-ocean-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12531:1" rel="noopener">Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS)</a>'s bid based on regulatory concerns.  Hanwha reckons these should not be an issue.</li>
<li>If you can tolerate owning the mobile biz, buy <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten (4755 JP)</a> on dips. If not, avoid Rakuten Group and Rakuten Bank short-term; buy Rakuten Bank on larger dips.</li>
</ul>


Murakami to tender stake in JSR Corp (4185 JP)? Maybe the "double arb": i.e. short on swap, long on cash, will tender the cash, remain short the back end.

Austal Ltd (ASB AU) rejected (for now) Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS)'s bid based on regulatory concerns.  Hanwha reckons these should not be an issue.
If you can tolerate owning the mobile biz, buy Rakuten (4755 JP) on dips. If not, avoid Rakuten Group and Rakuten Bank short-term; buy Rakuten Bank on larger dips.


Last Week in Event SPACE: JSR, Austal, Rakuten, Hyundai Home Shopping, Hanmi Science

<ul>
<li>Quiddity's "Who is Ready" series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.</li>
<li>One of our TOPIX Inclusion Pre-event names <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/visional-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32977:1" rel="noopener">Visional (4194 JP)</a> confirmed it has received approval to move to the Prime Market in December 2023.</li>
<li>Currently, we are expecting one TOPIX Inclusion at the end of December 2023 and two more at the end of January 2024 (including Visional). </li>
</ul>


Quiddity's "Who is Ready" series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.
One of our TOPIX Inclusion Pre-event names Visional (4194 JP) confirmed it has received approval to move to the Prime Market in December 2023.
Currently, we are expecting one TOPIX Inclusion at the end of December 2023 and two more at the end of January 2024 (including Visional). 


TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Dec 2023)

Japan

CELSYS, Inc. provides application software and digital services. The Company operates creators support business, digital books support business and planning of middleware and contents services. CELSYS also offers painting and drawing app services.

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CELSYS (3663 JP)

TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Jan 2024)

There are currently 70 names that satisfy all 6 key Segment Transfer requirements based on current data. Another 78 names can satisfy 5 out of 6...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

ZUIKO (6279 JP) Move to TSE Prime and TOPIX - Again, Shareholder Structure Matters

Zuiko is moving to TSE Prime next week and to TOPIX next month. That creates 1.9-2.1mm shares or 30 days of ADV of demand. Nice, but there is a big...

Travis Lundy

Last Week in Event SPACE: Toyota, Swire, Fancl, Barito Complex, Descente

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: JSR, Austal, Rakuten, Hyundai Home Shopping, Hanmi Science

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Dec 2023)

There are currently 68 names that satisfy all 6 key Segment Transfer requirements based on current data. Another 67 names can satisfy 5 out of 6...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

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