Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In last week's Int'l Compass (July 21) we discussed positive signals that suggested the lows for this bear market may have already been established, or that downside is limited.</li>
<li>But we also noted that various downtrends remained firmly intact, and that we needed to see indexes reverse their downtrends in order to get more constructive at the index level.</li>
<li>It appears the bullish reversals have begun, as the SPX, MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), and STOXX 600 are the first three major indexes to reverse topside their 4-month and YTD downtrends.</li>
</ul>


In last week's Int'l Compass (July 21) we discussed positive signals that suggested the lows for this bear market may have already been established, or that downside is limited.
But we also noted that various downtrends remained firmly intact, and that we needed to see indexes reverse their downtrends in order to get more constructive at the index level.
It appears the bullish reversals have begun, as the SPX, MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), and STOXX 600 are the first three major indexes to reverse topside their 4-month and YTD downtrends.


Europe, MSCI ACWI Bullish Downtrend Reversals as Japan Tests Resistance; Tech, Health Care Buys

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>If short-selling accounts for more than 30% of total daily trade volume, it will be newly designated as an overheated short-selling stock, resulting in a one-day short-selling ban.</li>
<li>If the stock price falls by more than 5% on the day of the short-selling restriction, the restriction period is automatically extended by one more day.</li>
<li>We should pay attention to a possible increase in the trading volume of single-stock futures (SSF) due to short-selling bans, which can result in a more significant basis distortion.</li>
</ul>


If short-selling accounts for more than 30% of total daily trade volume, it will be newly designated as an overheated short-selling stock, resulting in a one-day short-selling ban.
If the stock price falls by more than 5% on the day of the short-selling restriction, the restriction period is automatically extended by one more day.
We should pay attention to a possible increase in the trading volume of single-stock futures (SSF) due to short-selling bans, which can result in a more significant basis distortion.


Revised Rules on Short Selling Restriction in Korea: Effective 3Q This Year

<ul>
<li>Among the local theme ETFs in Korea, the TIGER (FnGuide) Top 10 has the highest win rate on rebalancing flow trade.</li>
<li>LG Energy deserves the most attention at the next rebalancing event. If LG Chem disposes of some of its LG Energy shares, LG Energy can bypass those on the borderline.</li>
<li>In this case, Shinhan, the one on the borderline at this point, will face a passive flow of -0.65x ADTV, while LG Energy will receive +0.25x.</li>
</ul>


Among the local theme ETFs in Korea, the TIGER (FnGuide) Top 10 has the highest win rate on rebalancing flow trade.
LG Energy deserves the most attention at the next rebalancing event. If LG Chem disposes of some of its LG Energy shares, LG Energy can bypass those on the borderline.
In this case, Shinhan, the one on the borderline at this point, will face a passive flow of -0.65x ADTV, while LG Energy will receive +0.25x.


FnGuide Top 10 (TIGER ETF) Rebalancing Review & Preview: LG Energy's Potential Inclusion

<ul>
<li>With the screening period over (May 3-31), Shinhan IN/Celltrion OUT is virtually a foregone conclusion.</li>
<li>We should consider an individually-hedged approach, instead of a plain long/short, with a tightly moving-together peer, preferably on a single-day trading window.</li>
<li>I suggest using KB Financial and Celltrion Healthcare as hedges of LONG &amp; SHORT for Shinhan and Celltrion, respectively.</li>
</ul>


With the screening period over (May 3-31), Shinhan IN/Celltrion OUT is virtually a foregone conclusion.
We should consider an individually-hedged approach, instead of a plain long/short, with a tightly moving-together peer, preferably on a single-day trading window.
I suggest using KB Financial and Celltrion Healthcare as hedges of LONG &amp; SHORT for Shinhan and Celltrion, respectively.


FnGuide Top 10 Rebalancing: How We Trade Shinhan IN/Celltrion OUT

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>With the declining number of daily new infections, most countries in APAC region are in process to relax their COVID-related restrictions and border re-opening.</li>
<li>While hospitals are the prime beneficiaries of re-opening, medical devices companies will also benefit from the resumption of elective surgeries. Monkeypox is not expected to have big adverse effect.</li>
<li>Investment thesis for four top picks in APAC healthcare sector remains intact, and their recent quarterly results depict their continued growth momentum.</li>
</ul>


With the declining number of daily new infections, most countries in APAC region are in process to relax their COVID-related restrictions and border re-opening.
While hospitals are the prime beneficiaries of re-opening, medical devices companies will also benefit from the resumption of elective surgeries. Monkeypox is not expected to have big adverse effect.
Investment thesis for four top picks in APAC healthcare sector remains intact, and their recent quarterly results depict their continued growth momentum.


APAC Healthcare – Good Bet on Re-Opening; Continued Strong Recovery in Top Picks

South Korea

Celltrion Inc. produces and sells biosimilar products and also provides consignm ent processing service for other companies.  The Company's main product is Abata cept which is for arthritis treatment

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Celltrion Inc (068270 KS)

Europe, MSCI ACWI Bullish Downtrend Reversals as Japan Tests Resistance; Tech, Health Care Buys

Bullish reversals have begun, as the $SPX, MSCI ACWI $ACWI, and $STOXX 600 are the first three major indexes to reverse topside their 4-month and...

Vermilion Research

Revised Rules on Short Selling Restriction in Korea: Effective 3Q This Year

This post details the new rules of short-selling restrictions announced today by the Financial Services Commission of Korea.

Sanghyun Park

FnGuide Top 10 (TIGER ETF) Rebalancing Review & Preview: LG Energy's Potential Inclusion

This post reviews the trading pattern seen in the last rebalancing of the FnGuide Top 10 Index (TIGER ETF) and previews the rebalancing flow...

Sanghyun Park

FnGuide Top 10 Rebalancing: How We Trade Shinhan IN/Celltrion OUT

This post looks at the FnGuide Top 10 Index (TIGER ETF) rebalancing results as we are past the screening period and suggests a trading approach on...

Sanghyun Park

APAC Healthcare – Good Bet on Re-Opening; Continued Strong Recovery in Top Picks

Amid the declining new COVID infections and economy re-opening, top picks in APAC healthcare sector are poised to benefit. Their recent quarterly...

Tina Banerjee

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