European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The board's renewal and the arrival of a new CEO (both should be a positive catalyst) are on track and will be completed in the coming weeks.</li>
<li>Gone the takeover angle, Cellnex's new strategy focuses on organic growth and deleveraging, aiming an investment grade rating and reducing net debt by end of FY2024 (already 5.6x net debt/2023e EBITDA).</li>
<li>Cellnex trades at 15.3x EV/Fwd EBITDA, vs. 28.8x American Towers and 24.4x Inwit. TCI may still look for ways to increase the value of its investment.</li>
</ul>


The board's renewal and the arrival of a new CEO (both should be a positive catalyst) are on track and will be completed in the coming weeks.
Gone the takeover angle, Cellnex's new strategy focuses on organic growth and deleveraging, aiming an investment grade rating and reducing net debt by end of FY2024 (already 5.6x net debt/2023e EBITDA).
Cellnex trades at 15.3x EV/Fwd EBITDA, vs. 28.8x American Towers and 24.4x Inwit. TCI may still look for ways to increase the value of its investment.


Peace Within the Board and Focus on Organic Growth

<ul>
<li>American Tower stated during FY 2022 results presentation that debt reduction is its main priority. The probability of a takeover bid for Cellnex by American Tower and Brookfield is reduced.</li>
<li>Cellnex on 14.7x EV/NTM EBITDAe is trading cheaply vs. AMT on 19.5x and below private equity deals at 25-30x. I believe that Cellnex's fundamentals are solid, and would be long.</li>
<li>Cellnex is the undisputed European leader in telecommunications towers with both high cash flow visibility (growth forecasted at 18% for the period 2021-2025e) and trading at 7.3% 22e FCF yield.</li>
</ul>


American Tower stated during FY 2022 results presentation that debt reduction is its main priority. The probability of a takeover bid for Cellnex by American Tower and Brookfield is reduced.
Cellnex on 14.7x EV/NTM EBITDAe is trading cheaply vs. AMT on 19.5x and below private equity deals at 25-30x. I believe that Cellnex's fundamentals are solid, and would be long.
Cellnex is the undisputed European leader in telecommunications towers with both high cash flow visibility (growth forecasted at 18% for the period 2021-2025e) and trading at 7.3% 22e FCF yield.


<ul>
<li>Press reported (20 January) that American Tower and Brookfield are preparing to launch a takeover bid for European towerco leader Cellnex with the intention of delisting the business.</li>
<li>Cellnex on 16.9x EV/22e EBITDA is trading cheaply vs AMT (21.6x) and a diversified unique asset. Its towers would come at €350,000/tower vs. recent deals at €500,000.</li>
<li>Top ten shareholders own 57.41%. The last rights issue was done at €36.33/share. At what price those shareholders could be bought out? Unlikely at less than a 25% premium, €45.5/share.</li>
</ul>


Press reported (20 January) that American Tower and Brookfield are preparing to launch a takeover bid for European towerco leader Cellnex with the intention of delisting the business.
Cellnex on 16.9x EV/22e EBITDA is trading cheaply vs AMT (21.6x) and a diversified unique asset. Its towers would come at €350,000/tower vs. recent deals at €500,000.
Top ten shareholders own 57.41%. The last rights issue was done at €36.33/share. At what price those shareholders could be bought out? Unlikely at less than a 25% premium, €45.5/share.


Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ck-hutchison-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:132:1" rel="noopener">CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK)</a>'s implied stub and the simple ratio (CKH/ <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ck-infrastructure-holdings-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:163:1" rel="noopener">CK Infrastructure Holdings (1038 HK)</a>) are currently at an all-time low.</li>
<li>The market is assigning US$1.2bn <em>less</em> for the stub ops subsequent to the announcement and completion of tower sales in Austria, Denmark, Ireland, Sweden, and Italy.</li>
<li>CKH's business diversification, both by geography and segment, continues to provide a strong and stable cashflow.</li>
</ul>



CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK)'s implied stub and the simple ratio (CKH/ CK Infrastructure Holdings (1038 HK)) are currently at an all-time low.
The market is assigning US$1.2bn less for the stub ops subsequent to the announcement and completion of tower sales in Austria, Denmark, Ireland, Sweden, and Italy.
CKH's business diversification, both by geography and segment, continues to provide a strong and stable cashflow.


2022 High Conviction: CK Hutchison (1 HK) Trading At Its Widest Ever Level

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Bottom-Up

Dayamitra Telekomunikasi PT / Equity Bottom-Up

<div><div id="ember4189"><div>
<div>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pt-dayamitra-telekomunikasi" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34741:1" rel="noopener">Mitratel (1319Z IJ)</a> is the largest telco tower owner and operator in Indonesia based on the number of telecommunication towers owned as of 30 June 2021, according to Analysys Mason. Mitratel is a subsidiary of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/telekomunikasi-indonesia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1051:1" rel="noopener">Telekomunikasi Indonesia (TLKM IJ)</a>.</div>
<div></div>
<div>Mitratel has launched an IPO to raise IDR20.0-24.9 trillion ($1.4-1.8 billion) at the IPO price range of IDR775-975 per share. Bookbuilding will close on 4 November and the shares are set to list on 22 November. </div>
<div></div>
</div></div></div><div>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/mitratel-dayamitra-telekomunikasi-ipo-initiation-control-tower" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:59620" rel="noopener">Mitratel (Dayamitra Telekomunikasi) IPO Initiation: Control Tower</a>, we noted that in comparison to other major regions (US, Western Europe, China and India), the tower industry in Indonesia offers an attractive mix of high EBITDA margin, low capex, no colocation discount and no obligation to provide power in the contract. The tower industry also benefits from predictable revenue due to long-term contracts and high renewal rates. Mitratel's contracted revenue based on agreements with customers for all types of leases is IDR30.7 trillion, and the average remaining life of lease agreements is 6.3 years, as of 30 June 2021. We concluded that Mitratel's fundamentals tick all the right boxes. </p>
<div class="content-highlight"><p>Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range is attractive. Overall, we would participate in the IPO.</p></div>
</div>



Mitratel (1319Z IJ) is the largest telco tower owner and operator in Indonesia based on the number of telecommunication towers owned as of 30 June 2021, according to Analysys Mason. Mitratel is a subsidiary of Telekomunikasi Indonesia (TLKM IJ).

Mitratel has launched an IPO to raise IDR20.0-24.9 trillion ($1.4-1.8 billion) at the IPO price range of IDR775-975 per share. Bookbuilding will close on 4 November and the shares are set to list on 22 November. 


In Mitratel (Dayamitra Telekomunikasi) IPO Initiation: Control Tower, we noted that in comparison to other major regions (US, Western Europe, China and India), the tower industry in Indonesia offers an attractive mix of high EBITDA margin, low capex, no colocation discount and no obligation to provide power in the contract. The tower industry also benefits from predictable revenue due to long-term contracts and high renewal rates. Mitratel's contracted revenue based on agreements with customers for all types of leases is IDR30.7 trillion, and the average remaining life of lease agreements is 6.3 years, as of 30 June 2021. We concluded that Mitratel's fundamentals tick all the right boxes. 
Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range is attractive. Overall, we would participate in the IPO.


Mitratel (Dayamitra Telekomunikasi) IPO: Valuation Insights

Spain

Cellnex Telecom S.A.U. is an independent operator of wireless telecommunications infrastructure and broadcast infrastructure. The Company's sites are located in Spain and Italy.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Cellnex Telecom Sau (CLNX SM)

Peace Within the Board and Focus on Organic Growth

Gone the takeover angle, Cellnex's new strategy focuses on organic growth and deleveraging, aiming an investment grade rating and reducing net debt...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

AMT/Cellnex: Lower Chances of a Bid

American Tower stated during FY 2022 results presentation that debt reduction is its main priority. The probability of a takeover bid for Cellnex...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

AMT/Cellnex: Possible Combination?

Press reported (20 January) that American Tower and Brookfield are preparing to launch a takeover bid for European towerco leader Cellnex with the...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

2022 High Conviction: CK Hutchison (1 HK) Trading At Its Widest Ever Level

C KH is inexpensive, versus historical levels, and when compared to peers. Net of CKI, the marker is assigning HK$9bn less for the stubs ops after...

David Blennerhassett

Mitratel (Dayamitra Telekomunikasi) IPO: Valuation Insights

Mitratel has launched an IPO to raise $1.4-1.8 billion. Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range is attractive. Overall, we would...

Arun George

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Peace Within the Board and Focus on Organic Growth

Gone the takeover angle, Cellnex's new strategy focuses on organic growth and deleveraging, aiming an investment grade rating and reducing net debt...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

AMT/​Cellnex: Lower Chances of a Bid

American Tower stated during FY 2022 results presentation that debt reduction is its main priority. The probability of a takeover bid for Cellnex...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

AMT/Cellnex: Possible Combination?

Press reported (20 January) that American Tower and Brookfield are preparing to launch a takeover bid for European towerco leader Cellnex with the...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

2022 High Conviction: CK Hutchison (1 HK) Trading At Its Widest Ever Level

C KH is inexpensive, versus historical levels, and when compared to peers. Net of CKI, the marker is assigning HK$9bn less for the stubs ops after...

David Blennerhassett

Mitratel (Dayamitra Telekomunikasi) IPO: Valuation Insights

Mitratel has launched an IPO to raise $1.4-1.8 billion. Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range is attractive. Overall, we would...

Arun George

AMT/Cellnex: Lower Chances of a Bid