External reports (aggregated public sources), Value Investors Club

Value Investors Club

External reports (aggregated public sources)

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>RLFCF multiple applied to 2025 guidance could result in 54% upside for stock</li><li>Cellnex's strong presence in key European countries and potential for free cash flow growth make it an attractive investment opportunity with projected IRR of 24%</li><li>Despite past disappointments in meeting free cash flow targets, company's future outlook looks promising for potential upside for investors</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

RLFCF multiple applied to 2025 guidance could result in 54% upside for stockCellnex's strong presence in key European countries and potential for free cash flow growth make it an attractive investment opportunity with projected IRR of 24%Despite past disappointments in meeting free cash flow targets, company's future outlook looks promising for potential upside for investorsThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

Cellnex Telecom Sa (CLNX) - Wednesday, Feb 14, 2024

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Major indexes in the three largest global equity markets (U.S., Europe, Japan) all remain below critical resistances of 5783 on SPX, 5000-5120 on EURO STOXX 50, and 2740-2820 on TOPIX</li>
<li>Additionally, broad global MSCI indexes (local currency) including the ACWI, ACWI ex-U.S., and EAFE all remain at/below resistance from their YTD highs; reduce exposure or shift to defensives.</li>
<li>In late-July we discussed expectations for a 1-to 4-month pullback/consolidation period on MSCI ACWI. We believe it seems likely to last closer to four months, and potentially 4- to 6-months</li>
</ul>


Major indexes in the three largest global equity markets (U.S., Europe, Japan) all remain below critical resistances of 5783 on SPX, 5000-5120 on EURO STOXX 50, and 2740-2820 on TOPIX
Additionally, broad global MSCI indexes (local currency) including the ACWI, ACWI ex-U.S., and EAFE all remain at/below resistance from their YTD highs; reduce exposure or shift to defensives.
In late-July we discussed expectations for a 1-to 4-month pullback/consolidation period on MSCI ACWI. We believe it seems likely to last closer to four months, and potentially 4- to 6-months


U.S., Europe, and Japan Still Holding Below Resistance; Favor Defensives

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jtower-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31042:1" rel="noopener">JTower (4485 JP)</a> has recommended a tender offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/digitalbridge-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20231:1" rel="noopener">DigitalBridge Group (DBRG US)</a> at JPY3,600, a 161.8% premium to the undisturbed price of JPY1,375 (13 August). </li>
<li>Despite the hefty takeover premium, the offer is light (compared to historical trading ranges and the recent placement) and opportunistically timed (the share price has fallen 61% since 9 May). </li>
<li>Nevertheless, barring a spurt of activism, the offer should succeed as the required 40.7% minority acceptance rate is not onerous and should be comfortably met by Japanese cross-holders.    </li>
</ul>



JTower (4485 JP) has recommended a tender offer from DigitalBridge Group (DBRG US) at JPY3,600, a 161.8% premium to the undisturbed price of JPY1,375 (13 August). 
Despite the hefty takeover premium, the offer is light (compared to historical trading ranges and the recent placement) and opportunistically timed (the share price has fallen 61% since 9 May). 
Nevertheless, barring a spurt of activism, the offer should succeed as the required 40.7% minority acceptance rate is not onerous and should be comfortably met by Japanese cross-holders.    


JTOWER (4485 JP): DigitalBridge’s 162% Takeover Premium Offer Is Opportunistic

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dai-ichi-life-insurance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1109:1" rel="noopener">Dai Ichi Life (8750 JP)</a>'s proposal suggests more upside to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/benefit-one-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14502:1" rel="noopener">Benefit One (2412 JP)</a>'s minorities than originally thought, and less upside (but still a chunk) to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pasona-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15778:1" rel="noopener">Pasona Group (2168 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>It's all over for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eoflow-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36100:1" rel="noopener">EOFlow (294090 KS)</a>, as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/medtronic-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14982:1" rel="noopener">Medtronic Plc (MDT US)</a> folds it tent. </li>
<li>Cho Hyun-Sik (eldest son of Cho Yang-Rae, Chairman of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hankook-company-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19369:1" rel="noopener">Hankook &amp; Company (000240 KS)</a> has joined MBK Partners in making a partial Tender Offer for Hankook &amp; Co.</li>
</ul>



Dai Ichi Life (8750 JP)'s proposal suggests more upside to Benefit One (2412 JP)'s minorities than originally thought, and less upside (but still a chunk) to Pasona Group (2168 JP).
It's all over for EOFlow (294090 KS), as Medtronic Plc (MDT US) folds it tent. 
Cho Hyun-Sik (eldest son of Cho Yang-Rae, Chairman of Hankook &amp; Company (000240 KS) has joined MBK Partners in making a partial Tender Offer for Hankook &amp; Co.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Pasona/Benefit One, EOFlow, Swire Pacific, Hankook & Co, Toyo Construction

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cellnex-telecom-sau" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21258:1" rel="noopener">Cellnex Telecom Sau (CLNX SM)</a> plans to divest non-strategic assets in Ireland (for around €1.1 billion) and later in Austria in order to reduce its debt.</li>
<li>The new strategy focuses on portfolio rationalisation due to the higher debt costs. Cellnex seeks expansion in certain markets, but without taking on too much debt.</li>
<li>Using multiples EV/EBITDA, my base-case fair value estimate (pro-forma Ireland divestment) is €48.73; a reduction in leverage should drive multiple expansion. Long.</li>
</ul>



Cellnex Telecom Sau (CLNX SM) plans to divest non-strategic assets in Ireland (for around €1.1 billion) and later in Austria in order to reduce its debt.
The new strategy focuses on portfolio rationalisation due to the higher debt costs. Cellnex seeks expansion in certain markets, but without taking on too much debt.
Using multiples EV/EBITDA, my base-case fair value estimate (pro-forma Ireland divestment) is €48.73; a reduction in leverage should drive multiple expansion. Long.


Spain

Cellnex Telecom S.A.U. is an independent operator of wireless telecommunications infrastructure and broadcast infrastructure. The Company's sites are located in Spain and Italy.

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Cellnex Telecom Sau (CLNX SM)

Cellnex Telecom Sa (CLNX) - Wednesday, Feb 14, 2024

Cellnex's strong presence in key European countries and potential for free cash flow growth make it an attractive investment opportunity with...

Value Investors Club

U.S., Europe, and Japan Still Holding Below Resistance; Favor Defensives

U.S., Europe, and Japan Still Holding Below Resistance; Favor Defensives. Actionable Themes: Real Estate, Utilities, Telecommunications, Energy,...

Vermilion Research

JTOWER (4485 JP): DigitalBridge’s 162% Takeover Premium Offer Is Opportunistic

Despite the hefty takeover premium, the offer is light and opportunistically timed. Nevertheless, barring the emergence of activists, there seems...

Arun George

Last Week in Event SPACE: Pasona/Benefit One, EOFlow, Swire Pacific, Hankook & Co, Toyo Construction

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Focus on Leverage Reduction

Cellnex Telecom plans to sell non-strategic assets in Ireland and Austria to reduce debt, focusing on portfolio rationalization and expansion in...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Cellnex Telecom Sa (CLNX) - Wednesday, Feb 14, 2024

Cellnex's strong presence in key European countries and potential for free cash flow growth make it an attractive investment opportunity with...

Value Investors Club

U.S., Europe, and Japan Still Holding Below Resistance; Favor Defensives

U.S., Europe, and Japan Still Holding Below Resistance; Favor Defensives. Actionable Themes: Real Estate, Utilities, Telecommunications, Energy,...

Vermilion Research

JTOWER (4485 JP): DigitalBridge’s 162% Takeover Premium Offer Is Opportunistic

Despite the hefty takeover premium, the offer is light and opportunistically timed. Nevertheless, barring the emergence of activists, there seems...

Arun George

Last Week in Event SPACE: Pasona/Benefit One, EOFlow, Swire Pacific, Hankook & Co, Toyo Construction

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Focus on Leverage Reduction

​Cellnex Telecom plans to sell non-strategic assets in Ireland and Austria to reduce debt, focusing on portfolio rationalization and expansion in...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Cellnex Telecom plans to sell non-strategic assets in Ireland and Austria to reduce debt, focusing on portfolio rationalization and expansion in...