IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cartrade-tech-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33474:1" rel="noopener">Cartrade (0056989Z IN)</a> is a leading online destination for auto consumers in India. CarWale and BikeWale, key brands owned by CarTrade, ranked number one on relative online search popularity when compared to their key competitors over the last three years, according to Google Trends data. CarTrade’s shareholders include Warburg Pincus (34.44% of fully diluted shares), Temasek (26.48%), JP Morgan (11.93%) and March Capital (7.09%). CarTrade is looking to raise Rs28 billion ($375 million) through an IPO in India, according to press reports. The IPO comprises a pure offer for sale of 18.53 million shares by its existing shareholders and promoters. The IPO is set to launch on 9 August.  India was the fifth largest car market in the world in 2019 and is forecasted to become the third-largest auto market in the world as measured by volume in 2025, according to RedSeer. The COVID-19 pandemic has also resulted in a shift in preference towards used cars as people limit their use of public transportation. Indian auto OEMs spent only 14% of their total ad budgets on digital advertising, which is significantly lower than the global average of 42% in 2020, according to RedSeer. <div class="content-highlight">The growing auto market combined with the rising penetration of digital ad spend presents an attractive opportunity for auto transaction platforms such as CarTrade. CarTrade is capitalising on this market opportunity as evidenced by its highly popular platforms, solid organic growth, strong margins and healthy cash generation. Overall, we think that CarTrade is an attractive play on India’s new economy sector.</div>

Cartrade (0056989Z IN) is a leading online destination for auto consumers in India. CarWale and BikeWale, key brands owned by CarTrade, ranked number one on relative online search popularity when compared to their key competitors over the last three years, according to Google Trends data. CarTrade’s shareholders include Warburg Pincus (34.44% of fully diluted shares), Temasek (26.48%), JP Morgan (11.93%) and March Capital (7.09%). CarTrade is looking to raise Rs28 billion ($375 million) through an IPO in India, according to press reports. The IPO comprises a pure offer for sale of 18.53 million shares by its existing shareholders and promoters. The IPO is set to launch on 9 August.  India was the fifth largest car market in the world in 2019 and is forecasted to become the third-largest auto market in the world as measured by volume in 2025, according to RedSeer. The COVID-19 pandemic has also resulted in a shift in preference towards used cars as people limit their use of public transportation. Indian auto OEMs spent only 14% of their total ad budgets on digital advertising, which is significantly lower than the global average of 42% in 2020, according to RedSeer. The growing auto market combined with the rising penetration of digital ad spend presents an attractive opportunity for auto transaction platforms such as CarTrade. CarTrade is capitalising on this market opportunity as evidenced by its highly popular platforms, solid organic growth, strong margins and healthy cash generation. Overall, we think that CarTrade is an attractive play on India’s new economy sector.

CarTrade Tech IPO Initiation: Shifting Gears

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Back on the 30 October 2020, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/icar-asia-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17682:1" rel="noopener">iCar Asia Ltd (ICQ AU)</a>, owner and operator of automotive portals in Malaysia, Indonesia, and Thailand, <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02301823-3A554168?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> it had received a non-binding proposal from China-based <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/autohome-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33492:1" rel="noopener">Autohome (2518 HK)</a>, another auto internet platform, to acquire 100% of iCar's shares for A$0.50/share by way of a Scheme of Arrangement.
A trading update on the <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02347131-3A562420?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">26 February</a> said discussions were still ongoing regarding Autohome's proposal, with similar wording in the <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02369968-3A566377?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">30 April</a> update, and the 2020 annual report (<a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02370430-3A566432?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">page 34</a>).
<h3>The New News</h3>
iCar has now <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02394670-3A570637?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> it has received a non-binding proposal from privately-held Carsome Group to acquire 100% of iCar's shares for A$0.55/share by way of a Scheme.
Separately Malaysian-based Carsome has entered into an agreement with Catcha Group, iCar's largest shareholder, to acquire 19.9% of shares out in iCar via the issuance of shares in Carsome. That side agreement and the proposal are conditional on ASIC relief.
Provided the agreement completes, Carsome and Catcha will jointly acquire the remaining shares not owned in iCar.
This agreement/proposal appears an initial step towards listing Carsome/Catcha. 
The announcement also says discussions remain ongoing with Autohome. 
More below the fold.

Back on the 30 October 2020, iCar Asia Ltd (ICQ AU), owner and operator of automotive portals in Malaysia, Indonesia, and Thailand, announced it had received a non-binding proposal from China-based Autohome (2518 HK), another auto internet platform, to acquire 100% of iCar's shares for A$0.50/share by way of a Scheme of Arrangement.
A trading update on the 26 February said discussions were still ongoing regarding Autohome's proposal, with similar wording in the 30 April update, and the 2020 annual report (page 34).
The New News
iCar has now announced it has received a non-binding proposal from privately-held Carsome Group to acquire 100% of iCar's shares for A$0.55/share by way of a Scheme.
Separately Malaysian-based Carsome has entered into an agreement with Catcha Group, iCar's largest shareholder, to acquire 19.9% of shares out in iCar via the issuance of shares in Carsome. That side agreement and the proposal are conditional on ASIC relief.
Provided the agreement completes, Carsome and Catcha will jointly acquire the remaining shares not owned in iCar.
This agreement/proposal appears an initial step towards listing Carsome/Catcha. 
The announcement also says discussions remain ongoing with Autohome. 
More below the fold. 

Autohome Inc (Adr) / Equity Capital Markets

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/autohome-inc-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20234:1" rel="noopener">Autohome Inc (Adr) (ATHM US)</a> is a leading online destination for auto consumers in China, ranking first among automotive service platforms as measured by mobile daily active users as of 31 December 2020 according to QuestMobile. Autohome passed its Hong Kong listing committee hearing and could raise up to $1 billion through a secondary listing, according to press reports. <div class="content-highlight">Autohome joins the second wave of Hong Kong secondary listings set to hit the screens in the coming months. Autohome like several companies which pursued secondary listings in the past, does not require the funds as its cash-rich and highly cash generative. Autohome is an attractive equity story as it is a leading online auto platform that can capitalise on the opportunities presented by China’s recovering auto market, in our view. </div>

Autohome Inc (Adr) (ATHM US) is a leading online destination for auto consumers in China, ranking first among automotive service platforms as measured by mobile daily active users as of 31 December 2020 according to QuestMobile. Autohome passed its Hong Kong listing committee hearing and could raise up to $1 billion through a secondary listing, according to press reports. Autohome joins the second wave of Hong Kong secondary listings set to hit the screens in the coming months. Autohome like several companies which pursued secondary listings in the past, does not require the funds as its cash-rich and highly cash generative. Autohome is an attractive equity story as it is a leading online auto platform that can capitalise on the opportunities presented by China’s recovering auto market, in our view. 

Autohome Secondary Listing: Motoring Online

Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/carsales-com-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:701:1" rel="noopener">Carsales.Com Ltd (CAR AU)</a> is the leading online car sales platform in Australia, with meaningful consolidated operations in South Korea, China, Malaysia, Indonesia, Argentina, Chile, and Mexico. This is an extremely high-quality company, having delivered an average Return on Invested Capital of 20% and an average Free Cash Flow margin (post-M&amp;A) of 18.5%, over the past 5yrs. At 1.6x Net Debt to EBITDA, its balance sheet also remains strong, despite acquisitive international expansion efforts over the last 5yrs.   The company has a strong sustainable competitive advantage (moat) through the network effect it has created by being the market-leading platform in almost all the geographies in which they operate. Carsales.com’s core advertising revenue streams should be a beneficiary of a cyclical upswing in economic growth, from an incredibly low base, going into next year. The key controversy, however, on the stock is whether they will be able to accelerate their domestic digital advertising revenue growth in light of still-weak, albeit recovering, vehicle sales despite increased economic activity following a year heavily impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic AND whether this accelerating growth will be sufficient to surprise the lofty expectations already set by the Buy-side as indicated by its current 31x NTM PE ratio (a premium of more than 2 standard deviations above its 10yr historical average trading range).

Carsales.Com Ltd (CAR AU) is the leading online car sales platform in Australia, with meaningful consolidated operations in South Korea, China, Malaysia, Indonesia, Argentina, Chile, and Mexico. This is an extremely high-quality company, having delivered an average Return on Invested Capital of 20% and an average Free Cash Flow margin (post-M&amp;A) of 18.5%, over the past 5yrs. At 1.6x Net Debt to EBITDA, its balance sheet also remains strong, despite acquisitive international expansion efforts over the last 5yrs.   The company has a strong sustainable competitive advantage (moat) through the network effect it has created by being the market-leading platform in almost all the geographies in which they operate. Carsales.com’s core advertising revenue streams should be a beneficiary of a cyclical upswing in economic growth, from an incredibly low base, going into next year. The key controversy, however, on the stock is whether they will be able to accelerate their domestic digital advertising revenue growth in light of still-weak, albeit recovering, vehicle sales despite increased economic activity following a year heavily impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic AND whether this accelerating growth will be sufficient to surprise the lofty expectations already set by the Buy-side as indicated by its current 31x NTM PE ratio (a premium of more than 2 standard deviations above its 10yr historical average trading range).

Carsales.com: High Growth Recovery Expectations Already Baked In

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

The MSCI ACWI index (USD) is breaking out to all-time highs while the MSCI EM index (local) is breaking above its prior highs from January. This is bullish and will continue to be as long as there is an absence of breakdowns. On the other hand, Europe’s EURO STOXX 50 and Japan’s TOPIX have struggled to break above resistance and their RS remains near the lows -- be selective. In addition to covering important technical levels across all markets, we highlight additional ideas in the following Sectors: Services, Communications, Industrials, and Transportation.

The MSCI ACWI index (USD) is breaking out to all-time highs while the MSCI EM index (local) is breaking above its prior highs from January. This is bullish and will continue to be as long as there is an absence of breakdowns. On the other hand, Europe’s EURO STOXX 50 and Japan’s TOPIX have struggled to break above resistance and their RS remains near the lows -- be selective. In addition to covering important technical levels across all markets, we highlight additional ideas in the following Sectors: Services, Communications, Industrials, and Transportation.

Global Equity Strategy: Bullish Outlook Intact

Australia

CAR Group Limited operates as a digital marketplace for vehicles. The Company provides a diversified portfolio of brands to sell and buy cars. CAR Group serves customers worldwide.

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CAR Group (CAR AU)

CarTrade Tech IPO Initiation: Shifting Gears

CarTrade is looking to raise Rs28 billion ($375 million) through an IPO in India. Overall, we think that CarTrade is an attractive play on India’s...

Arun George

ICar (ICQ AU): Carsome & Catcha Carpool

This looks like a knock-out bid. I suspect it is trading wide to terms - 25% gross spread - given the downside to a deal break, and the low...

David Blennerhassett

Autohome Secondary Listing: Motoring Online

Autohome passed its HK listing hearing for a $1 billion secondary listing. Autohome is an attractive equity story that can capitalise on the...

Arun George

Carsales.com: High Growth Recovery Expectations Already Baked In

Carsales.com is the leading online car sales platform in Australia and should be a benefit from a cyclical upswing in economic growth, but at 31x...

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Equity Strategy: Bullish Outlook Intact

The MSCI ACWI index (USD) is breaking out to all-time highs while the MSCI EM index (local) is breaking above its prior highs from January. This is...

Vermilion Research

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