Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

The Russell 2000 (IWM) has been moving sideways for 7 months between $208 and $234.50, emblematic of the mixed market environment that we still find ourselves in. As long as $208 support holds we remain constructive on the overall market. On the plus side, conditions have been improving over the past two weeks -- not getting worse (more on this below). This increases the odds of a breakout above $234.50 on the IWM in the coming weeks or months, which would signal the start of a new broad-based bull market.Charts Highlighted: EEM, JD, NFLX, TSLA, YZCAY, BTU, HCC, ARCH, ARLP, CG, ARES, AB, CNS, VRTS, BSIG, VCTR, FDUS, PLD, REXR, FR, STAG, IIPR, TRNO, PSA, EXR, CUBE, LSI, and NSA

The Russell 2000 (IWM) has been moving sideways for 7 months between $208 and $234.50, emblematic of the mixed market environment that we still find ourselves in. As long as $208 support holds we remain constructive on the overall market. On the plus side, conditions have been improving over the past two weeks -- not getting worse (more on this below). This increases the odds of a breakout above $234.50 on the IWM in the coming weeks or months, which would signal the start of a new broad-based bull market.Charts Highlighted: EEM, JD, NFLX, TSLA, YZCAY, BTU, HCC, ARCH, ARLP, CG, ARES, AB, CNS, VRTS, BSIG, VCTR, FDUS, PLD, REXR, FR, STAG, IIPR, TRNO, PSA, EXR, CUBE, LSI, and NSA

Conditions Continue To Improve; EM Buy Signal; Growth Outperforming; Gold Vs. SPX Downtrend Intact

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

As per <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/philip-morris-lifts-bid-uks-vectura-165-pence-per-share-2021-08-08/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Reuters</a>, on 8 August <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/philip-morris-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13328:1" rel="noopener">Philip Morris International (PM US)</a> raised its bid for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vectura-group-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22201:1" rel="noopener">Vectura (VEC LN)</a> to 165p/share, c. 6.5% higher than the last recommended 155p/share bid on 6 August by Murano Bidco (Carlyle).
The improved bid by Philip Morris is c. 2.5% above the TP in my last insight, and represents 17.3x EV/Fwd EBITDA. It reflects a full price, in my view. Vectura has strategic value for Philip Morris "PMI intends to operate Vectura as an autonomous business unit that will form the backbone of its inhaled therapeutics business".
My new TP is 165p, as I believe that the Board of Vectura will withdraw the recommendation issued for the last Carlyle offer and will recommend the last offer by Philip Morris, which is determined to win. On this basis, I reiterate long VEC LN. Gross spread is 0.6%, with limited downside, in my view.
Shares of Vectura may increase over the last offer by Philip Morris upon market opening on 9 August.

As per Reuters, on 8 August Philip Morris International (PM US) raised its bid for Vectura (VEC LN) to 165p/share, c. 6.5% higher than the last recommended 155p/share bid on 6 August by Murano Bidco (Carlyle).
The improved bid by Philip Morris is c. 2.5% above the TP in my last insight, and represents 17.3x EV/Fwd EBITDA. It reflects a full price, in my view. Vectura has strategic value for Philip Morris "PMI intends to operate Vectura as an autonomous business unit that will form the backbone of its inhaled therapeutics business".
My new TP is 165p, as I believe that the Board of Vectura will withdraw the recommendation issued for the last Carlyle offer and will recommend the last offer by Philip Morris, which is determined to win. On this basis, I reiterate long VEC LN. Gross spread is 0.6%, with limited downside, in my view.
Shares of Vectura may increase over the last offer by Philip Morris upon market opening on 9 August. 

Advanced Micro Devices / Technical Analysis

The market continues to send mixed signals and we remain cautious and selective, preferring large-caps over small-caps, growth over value, and defensives (Utilities, Staples, REITs, Health Care) over cyclical value (Energy, Materials, Manufacturing, Transportation, Financials). While market dynamics suggest a 5-15% pullback is in the cards, there continues to be an absence of breakdowns at the index and Sector level; even the weaker Sectors such as Energy and Transportation are not yet breaking down. Until we start to see breakdowns at the Sector and index level, we remain constructive overall.

The market continues to send mixed signals and we remain cautious and selective, preferring large-caps over small-caps, growth over value, and defensives (Utilities, Staples, REITs, Health Care) over cyclical value (Energy, Materials, Manufacturing, Transportation, Financials). While market dynamics suggest a 5-15% pullback is in the cards, there continues to be an absence of breakdowns at the index and Sector level; even the weaker Sectors such as Energy and Transportation are not yet breaking down. Until we start to see breakdowns at the Sector and index level, we remain constructive overall.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Buying Semiconductors, Auto Dealers, and Asset Mgmt/Custody Banks

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

Hutchmed China Ltd / Equity Capital Markets

<div>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hutchmed-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:133:1" rel="noopener">Hutchmed China Ltd (13 HK)</a> has launched a $603 million secondary listing on HKEx by offering 104.0 million ordinary shares at a maximum offer price of HK$45.00 per share. Bookbuilding is scheduled to run until the pricing on 23 June. The net proceeds will be used to fund the late-stage clinical programs (savolitinib, surufatinib, fruquintinib, HMPL-689 and HMPL-523), to support further proof-of-concept studies and strengthen commercialisation capabilities.
HutchMed has primary listings on Nasdaq and on UK AIM. The HKEx secondary listing will be supported by five cornerstone investors which will subscribe for HK$2,535 million ($325 million) of the offer shares (54.17% of the offer shares at the maximum offer price). The cornerstone investors are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/carlyle-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33402:1" rel="noopener">Carlyle Group Inc (CG US)</a>, CPP Investments, General Atlantic, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hbm-healthcare-investments-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22373:1" rel="noopener">HBM Healthcare Investments AG (HBMN SW)</a> and CICC Capital.
HutchMed is a China-based, globally focused, biopharma company, active in discovery, development, manufacturing, and commercialisation. The investment case centres on the success of its oncology/immunology platform, which has several near-term clinical and regulatory catalysts from the novel highly selective small molecule (tyrosine kinase inhibitor) pipeline. Notably, in-house discovered drugs, Elunate (fruquintinib) and Sulanda (surufatinib), together with a likely approval for savolitinib, are transforming China prospects. Elunate is performing well in China, with NRDL inclusion boosting volumes. The first global launch is likely to be surufatinib with a US launch targeted for late 2021 or early 2022.
</div><div><div class="content-highlight">In this note, we will look at HutchMed’s potential HK-ADS premium/(discount). As per the norm, HutchMed will price its H-shares at a discount to its ADSs/UK shares to entice investors to participate in the secondary listing. HutchMed pricing its H-shares at a discount of 2-3% to its ADSs will be reasonable, in our view.</div></div>


Hutchmed China Ltd (13 HK) has launched a $603 million secondary listing on HKEx by offering 104.0 million ordinary shares at a maximum offer price of HK$45.00 per share. Bookbuilding is scheduled to run until the pricing on 23 June. The net proceeds will be used to fund the late-stage clinical programs (savolitinib, surufatinib, fruquintinib, HMPL-689 and HMPL-523), to support further proof-of-concept studies and strengthen commercialisation capabilities.
HutchMed has primary listings on Nasdaq and on UK AIM. The HKEx secondary listing will be supported by five cornerstone investors which will subscribe for HK$2,535 million ($325 million) of the offer shares (54.17% of the offer shares at the maximum offer price). The cornerstone investors are Carlyle Group Inc (CG US), CPP Investments, General Atlantic, HBM Healthcare Investments AG (HBMN SW) and CICC Capital.
HutchMed is a China-based, globally focused, biopharma company, active in discovery, development, manufacturing, and commercialisation. The investment case centres on the success of its oncology/immunology platform, which has several near-term clinical and regulatory catalysts from the novel highly selective small molecule (tyrosine kinase inhibitor) pipeline. Notably, in-house discovered drugs, Elunate (fruquintinib) and Sulanda (surufatinib), together with a likely approval for savolitinib, are transforming China prospects. Elunate is performing well in China, with NRDL inclusion boosting volumes. The first global launch is likely to be surufatinib with a US launch targeted for late 2021 or early 2022.
In this note, we will look at HutchMed’s potential HK-ADS premium/(discount). As per the norm, HutchMed will price its H-shares at a discount to its ADSs/UK shares to entice investors to participate in the secondary listing. HutchMed pricing its H-shares at a discount of 2-3% to its ADSs will be reasonable, in our view.

HutchMed Secondary Listing: HK-ADS Premium/​​​(Discount) Views

United States

The Carlyle Group Inc. operates as a global investment firm. The Company manages investment vehicles that invests across four segments which includes corporate private equity, real assets, global credit, and investment solutions. Carlyle Group serves clients worldwide.

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Carlyle Group / (CG US)

Conditions Continue To Improve; EM Buy Signal; Growth Outperforming; Gold Vs. SPX Downtrend Intact

Emerging markets (EEM) appear to be bottoming; one attractive buy candidate is JD.com (JD). We also highlight buy opportunities within Energy...

Vermilion Research

Race for Vectura Continues

New TP is 165p. I believe the Board of Vectura will withdraw the recommendation for last Carlyle offer and will recommend Philip Morris's....

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

U.S. Equity Strategy: Buying Semiconductors, Auto Dealers, and Asset Mgmt/Custody Banks

Despite our overall cautious outlook, several areas are attractive and buyable, including: Semiconductors, Auto Dealers, and Asset Management...

Vermilion Research

HutchMed Secondary Listing: HK-ADS Premium/(Discount) Views

HutchMed has launched a $603 million secondary listing on HKEx. In this note, we will look at HutchMed’s potential HK-ADS premium/(discount).

Arun George

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Conditions Continue To Improve; EM Buy Signal; Growth Outperforming; Gold Vs. SPX Downtrend Intact

Emerging markets (EEM) appear to be bottoming; one attractive buy candidate is JD.com (JD). We also highlight buy opportunities within Energy...

Vermilion Research

Race for Vectura Continues

New TP is 165p. I believe the Board of Vectura will withdraw the recommendation for last Carlyle offer and will recommend Philip Morris's....

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

U.S. Equity Strategy: Buying Semiconductors, Auto Dealers, and Asset Mgmt/Custody Banks

Despite our overall cautious outlook, several areas are attractive and buyable, including: Semiconductors, Auto Dealers, and Asset Management...

Vermilion Research

HutchMed Secondary Listing: HK-ADS Premium/​​​(Discount) Views

HutchMed has launched a $603 million secondary listing on HKEx. In this note, we will look at HutchMed’s potential HK-ADS premium/(discount).

Arun George

HutchMed Secondary Listing: HK-ADS Premium/(Discount) Views