Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We see global equities (MSCI ACWI) going through a pause/pullback amid short-term breakouts in the U.S. dollar (DXY) and global sovereign 10-year yields.</li>
<li>A rising DXY and climbing yields is a near-term headwind, and we could continue to see more choppy price action in the weeks ahead.</li>
<li>With that said, as long as the DXY remains below $106, the 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35%, and ACWI-US is <em>above</em> $98, we would view pullbacks as buying opportunities.</li>
</ul>


We see global equities (MSCI ACWI) going through a pause/pullback amid short-term breakouts in the U.S. dollar (DXY) and global sovereign 10-year yields.
A rising DXY and climbing yields is a near-term headwind, and we could continue to see more choppy price action in the weeks ahead.
With that said, as long as the DXY remains below $106, the 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35%, and ACWI-US is above $98, we would view pullbacks as buying opportunities.


Pause/Pullback Underway; Downgrading Europe and Mexico; Buys in Services, Tech, Comm, Healthcare

Research from Water Tower Research, Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research

Research from Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research is a leading equity research firm that provides research on micro, small and mid cap companies.

Water Tower Research was founded by Wall Street veterans after witnessing a fundamental shift in the investment research industry with the result being a declining knowledge base among investors, a lack of awareness and a shrinking pool of fundamental research being conducted on companies across the small-cap and micro-cap spectrum. The same issues are now increasingly occurring in the mid-cap space. This sea change within the investment community is impacting not only the companies themselves but also current shareholders and potential investors. With significantly less active sell-side sponsorship by Wall Street, a substantial information gap has developed between companies and various constituents in the financial community. The net result is fewer channels for insight and information to flow between companies and investors.

Equity Research Firm

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The digital transformation services market is big, at more than $2 trillion this year, and growing at a 23% CAGR. </li><li>According to Gartner, 91% of organizations have a digital initiative currently ongoing and 67% of senior executives believe their organizations must become significantly more digitized.</li><li>The reason digital transformation is growing is the benefits of a true digital transformation are significant, including improved operations, time-to-market, and customer experience, and COVID-19 just accelerated the trend. </li></ul>

The digital transformation services market is big, at more than $2 trillion this year, and growing at a 23% CAGR. According to Gartner, 91% of organizations have a digital initiative currently ongoing and 67% of senior executives believe their organizations must become significantly more digitized.The reason digital transformation is growing is the benefits of a true digital transformation are significant, including improved operations, time-to-market, and customer experience, and COVID-19 just accelerated the trend. 

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tdcx-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34187:1" rel="noopener">TDCX (TDCX US)</a>, which is headquartered in Singapore, is a digital customer experience (CX) solutions provider for innovative technology and other blue-chip companies. </p></div><div><p>At the mid-point of the proposed IPO price range of $16.00-18.00 per ADS, TDCX will have a market cap of $2.4 billion. At the mid-point of the IPO price range, the net proceeds are $294.5 million, below the rumoured $400 million raise target. TDCX has received indications of interest worth 2% of the ADSs being offered from the founder, directors and officers. The IPO proceeds will be used to repay $188.0 million of the Credit Suisse facility (related to the acquisition of the founder’s interests in TDCX KY) and to expand into new markets.</p></div><div><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/tdcx-ipo-initiation-good-service" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:57442" rel="noopener">TDCX IPO Initiation: Good Service</a>, we stated that in a competitive market, TDCX’s differentiated value-added services are reflected in market share gains, high growth and sector-leading margin. The key risk is the high dependence on two customers, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/facebook-inc-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:665:1" rel="noopener">Facebook Inc A (FB US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/airbnb-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:431:1" rel="noopener">Airbnb Inc (ABNB US)</a>. This customer risk is partly mitigated by long-standing relationships. We concluded that TDCX’s fundamentals are attractive.</p></div><div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>Our valuation analysis suggests that TDCX is attractively valued to its customer experience (CX) centric peers, particularly at the low-end of the IPO price range.  </p></div></div></div>

TDCX (TDCX US), which is headquartered in Singapore, is a digital customer experience (CX) solutions provider for innovative technology and other blue-chip companies. At the mid-point of the proposed IPO price range of $16.00-18.00 per ADS, TDCX will have a market cap of $2.4 billion. At the mid-point of the IPO price range, the net proceeds are $294.5 million, below the rumoured $400 million raise target. TDCX has received indications of interest worth 2% of the ADSs being offered from the founder, directors and officers. The IPO proceeds will be used to repay $188.0 million of the Credit Suisse facility (related to the acquisition of the founder’s interests in TDCX KY) and to expand into new markets.In TDCX IPO Initiation: Good Service, we stated that in a competitive market, TDCX’s differentiated value-added services are reflected in market share gains, high growth and sector-leading margin. The key risk is the high dependence on two customers, Facebook Inc A (FB US) and Airbnb Inc (ABNB US). This customer risk is partly mitigated by long-standing relationships. We concluded that TDCX’s fundamentals are attractive.Our valuation analysis suggests that TDCX is attractively valued to its customer experience (CX) centric peers, particularly at the low-end of the IPO price range.  

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Last Week in Event SPACE: Sembcorp Marine, AusNet, Shinsei Bank, MMC Corp

<div>
<p>Back on the 19 July, systems integrator <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/empired-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9406:1" rel="noopener">Empired Ltd (EPD AU)</a> entered into a <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02396546-6A1041326?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Scheme</a> with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/capgemini-se" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28633:1" rel="noopener">Capgemini SE (CGEMY US)</a> at a price of A$1.35/share, a 64.6% premium to last close, and an all-time high. The Offer had the unanimous backing of Empired's board. CEO Russell Baskerville, with 5.8% of Empired's outstanding shares, intended to vote in favour of the Scheme.</p>
</div>
<div>
<p>The Scheme Booklet is now <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02425467-6A1051843?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">out</a>. The Scheme Meeting will take place on the 25 October, with expected implementation on the 16 November. The Independent Expert concluded that the Scheme is fair and reasonable.</p>
</div>
<div>
<p>This looks done. </p>
</div>
<div>
<p>More below the fold.</p>
</div>


Back on the 19 July, systems integrator Empired Ltd (EPD AU) entered into a Scheme with Capgemini SE (CGEMY US) at a price of A$1.35/share, a 64.6% premium to last close, and an all-time high. The Offer had the unanimous backing of Empired's board. CEO Russell Baskerville, with 5.8% of Empired's outstanding shares, intended to vote in favour of the Scheme.


The Scheme Booklet is now out. The Scheme Meeting will take place on the 25 October, with expected implementation on the 16 November. The Independent Expert concluded that the Scheme is fair and reasonable.


This looks done. 


More below the fold.


Empired (EPD AU): Scheme Booklet Out. Meeting On The 25 October

France

Capgemini offers information technology services. The Company provides mobile software solutions, business process management, outsourcing, cloud computing, finance, consulting, supply chain management, engineering, and other services. Capgemini serves aerospace, defense, automotive, health care, life science, telecom, media, and entertainment industries worldwide.

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Capgemini SE (CGEMY US)

Pause/Pullback Underway; Downgrading Europe and Mexico; Buys in Services, Tech, Comm, Healthcare

Pause/pullback underway in $ACWI, but as long as the $DXY remains below $106, the 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35%, and $ACWI is above...

Vermilion Research

Tech Talk: Digital Transformation

According to Gartner, 91% of organizations have a digital initiative currently ongoing and 67% of senior executives believe their organizations...

Water Tower Research

TDCX IPO: Valuation Insights

Our valuation analysis suggests that TDCX is attractively valued to its customer experience (CX) centric peers, particularly at the low-end of the...

Arun George

Last Week in Event SPACE: Sembcorp Marine, AusNet, Shinsei Bank, MMC Corp

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Empired (EPD AU): Scheme Booklet Out. Meeting On The 25 October

Trading relatively tight at a 1.5%/11.3% gross/annualised spread. That's reasonable, but this is not a super liquid arb situation.

David Blennerhassett

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