Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canara-bank" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:543:1" rel="noopener">Canara Bank (CBK IN)</a> could replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bandhan-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26705:1" rel="noopener">Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nse-nifty-bank-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26811:1" rel="noopener">NSE Nifty Bank Index (NSEBANK INDEX)</a> at the March rebalance.</li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to buy 2 days of ADV on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canara-bank" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:543:1" rel="noopener">Canara Bank (CBK IN)</a> while selling over 1 day of ADV on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bandhan-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26705:1" rel="noopener">Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN)</a>. </li>
<li>The impact is even higher where passives will need to buy nearly 6x delivery volumes in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canara-bank" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:543:1" rel="noopener">Canara Bank</a> and sell 3x delivery volumes in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bandhan-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26705:1" rel="noopener">Bandhan Bank Ltd</a>.</li>
</ul>



Canara Bank (CBK IN) could replace Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN) in the NSE Nifty Bank Index (NSEBANK INDEX) at the March rebalance.
Passive trackers will need to buy 2 days of ADV on Canara Bank (CBK IN) while selling over 1 day of ADV on Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN). 
The impact is even higher where passives will need to buy nearly 6x delivery volumes in Canara Bank and sell 3x delivery volumes in Bandhan Bank Ltd.


NIFTY Bank Index Rebalance Preview: Canara Bank Could Replace Bandhan Bank

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aadhar-housing-finance-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32152:1" rel="noopener">Aadhar Housing Finance</a> raised around US$360m in its India IPO in May 2024, via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares. Its IPO lockup is set to expire soon.</li>
<li>AHF is focused on the low income housing segments (ticket size less than INR1.5m) in India. It offers a range of mortgage-related loan products.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.</li>
</ul>



Aadhar Housing Finance raised around US$360m in its India IPO in May 2024, via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares. Its IPO lockup is set to expire soon.
AHF is focused on the low income housing segments (ticket size less than INR1.5m) in India. It offers a range of mortgage-related loan products.
In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.


Aadhar Housing Finance IPO Lockup -PE Owner Is up 5x, with US$500m Lockup Expiry Soon

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nse-nifty-next-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36053:1" rel="noopener">Nifty Next 50 Index</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nse-nifty-bank-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26811:1" rel="noopener">NSE Nifty Bank Index</a>, CNXIT Index, Nifty Midcap 150 Index, Nifty100 Low Volatility30 Index and the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cpse-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28191:1" rel="noopener">CPSE ETF</a> rebalance at the close tomorrow.</li>
<li>The round-trip trade across the indices is US$3.3bn and there are 13 stocks with over 1 day of ADV to trade from passive trackers.</li>
<li>Stocks with the largest inflows are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trent-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8410:1" rel="noopener">Trent</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bharat-electronics-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6636:1" rel="noopener">Bharat Electronics</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canara-bank" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:543:1" rel="noopener">Canara Bank</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bharat-heavy-electricals" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:460:1" rel="noopener">Bharat Heavy Electricals</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oil-natural-gas-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3456:1" rel="noopener">Oil &amp; Natural Gas Corp</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coal-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9117:1" rel="noopener">Coal India</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hindustan-aeronautics-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26747:1" rel="noopener">Hindustan Aeronautics</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/interglobe-aviation-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24877:1" rel="noopener">InterGlobe Aviation</a>.</li>
</ul>


The NIFTY Index, Nifty Next 50 Index, NSE Nifty Bank Index, CNXIT Index, Nifty Midcap 150 Index, Nifty100 Low Volatility30 Index and the CPSE ETF rebalance at the close tomorrow.
The round-trip trade across the indices is US$3.3bn and there are 13 stocks with over 1 day of ADV to trade from passive trackers.
Stocks with the largest inflows are Trent, Bharat Electronics, Canara Bank, Bharat Heavy Electricals, Oil &amp; Natural Gas Corp, Coal India, Hindustan Aeronautics and InterGlobe Aviation.


NIFTY Indices: Flows (Post Capping) At the Close Tomorrow; Round-Trip US$3.3bn

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Our positive focus remains on smaller cap Indian banks, with buys on value plays Bandhan, Baroda and UBI; we are negative on richly valued ICICI Bank and Kotak Mahindra</li>
<li>UBI shares have been poor performers, but its returns to 1QFYE25 have improved and it is a value stand-out; Baroda remains a favourite and Bandhan has delivered better profitability </li>
<li>Kotak Mahindra is the peer group’s highest return bank post credit costs, but returns are declining; ICICI also has attractive returns but we believe its credit costs are unsustainably low</li>
</ul>


Our positive focus remains on smaller cap Indian banks, with buys on value plays Bandhan, Baroda and UBI; we are negative on richly valued ICICI Bank and Kotak Mahindra
UBI shares have been poor performers, but its returns to 1QFYE25 have improved and it is a value stand-out; Baroda remains a favourite and Bandhan has delivered better profitability 
Kotak Mahindra is the peer group’s highest return bank post credit costs, but returns are declining; ICICI also has attractive returns but we believe its credit costs are unsustainably low


Indian Banks Screener 1QFYE25: Positive Focus on Value Based Smaller Caps

<ul>
<li>With the review period nearly complete, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canara-bank" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:543:1" rel="noopener">Canara Bank (CBK IN)</a> should replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bandhan-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26705:1" rel="noopener">Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nse-nifty-bank-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26811:1" rel="noopener">NSE Nifty Bank Index (NSEBANK INDEX)</a> in September.</li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to buy over 2 days of ADV in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canara-bank" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:543:1" rel="noopener">Canara Bank (CBK IN)</a> while selling over 1 day of ADV in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bandhan-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26705:1" rel="noopener">Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN)</a>.</li>
<li>There is a strong possibility of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bandhan-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26705:1" rel="noopener">Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN)</a> being deleted from a global index in August and that could put the stock under even more pressure.</li>
</ul>


With the review period nearly complete, Canara Bank (CBK IN) should replace Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN) in the NSE Nifty Bank Index (NSEBANK INDEX) in September.
Passive trackers will need to buy over 2 days of ADV in Canara Bank (CBK IN) while selling over 1 day of ADV in Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN).
There is a strong possibility of Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN) being deleted from a global index in August and that could put the stock under even more pressure.


NIFTY Bank Index Rebalance Preview: Bandhan Bank Facing Double Deletion

India

Canara Bank Ltd. provides a full range of banking services throughout India. The Group's activities include retail banking, commercial and personal banking, investment management, treasury & NRI services, cash management and assorted ATM facilities.

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Canara Bank (CBK IN)

NIFTY Bank Index Rebalance Preview: Canara Bank Could Replace Bandhan Bank

Canara Bank is close to replacing Bandhan Bank in the NIFTY BANK Index in March. Passives will need to trade 5.7x delivery volume on CBK and sell...

Brian Freitas

Aadhar Housing Finance IPO Lockup -PE Owner Is up 5x, with US$500m Lockup Expiry Soon

Aadhar Housing Finance raised around US$360m in its India IPO in May 2024, via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares. Its IPO lockup is set...

Sumeet Singh

NIFTY Indices: Flows (Post Capping) At the Close Tomorrow; Round-Trip US$3.3bn

The next rebalance of the Nifty family of indices takes place at the close on 27 Sep. The round-trip trade is US$3.3bn and there are 13 stocks with...

Brian Freitas

Indian Banks Screener 1QFYE25: Positive Focus on Value Based Smaller Caps

Positive focus on smaller cap, value based Indian banks Bandhan, Baroda, and UBI; negative on richly valued ICICI Bank and Kotak Mahindra due to...

Victor Galliano

NIFTY Bank Index Rebalance Preview: Bandhan Bank Facing Double Deletion

Canara Bank is a high probability add and Bandhan Bank is a high probability delete for the CNXBANK index. Bandhan could also be deleted from a...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

NIFTY Bank Index Rebalance Preview: Canara Bank Could Replace Bandhan Bank

Canara Bank is close to replacing Bandhan Bank in the NIFTY BANK Index in March. Passives will need to trade 5.7x delivery volume on CBK and sell...

Brian Freitas

Aadhar Housing Finance IPO Lockup -PE Owner Is up 5x, with US$500m Lockup Expiry Soon

Aadhar Housing Finance raised around US$360m in its India IPO in May 2024, via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares. Its IPO lockup is set...

Sumeet Singh

NIFTY Indices: Flows (Post Capping) At the Close Tomorrow; Round-Trip US$3.3bn

The next rebalance of the Nifty family of indices takes place at the close on 27 Sep. The round-trip trade is US$3.3bn and there are 13 stocks with...

Brian Freitas

Indian Banks Screener 1QFYE25: Positive Focus on Value Based Smaller Caps

​Positive focus on smaller cap, value based Indian banks Bandhan, Baroda, and UBI; negative on richly valued ICICI Bank and Kotak Mahindra due to...

Victor Galliano

NIFTY Bank Index Rebalance Preview: Bandhan Bank Facing Double Deletion

Canara Bank is a high probability add and Bandhan Bank is a high probability delete for the CNXBANK index. Bandhan could also be deleted from a...

Brian Freitas

Positive focus on smaller cap, value based Indian banks Bandhan, Baroda, and UBI; negative on richly valued ICICI Bank and Kotak Mahindra due to...