Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In line with our forecast, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canara-bank" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:543:1" rel="noopener">Canara Bank (CBK IN)</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bandhan-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26705:1" rel="noopener">Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nse-nifty-bank-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26811:1" rel="noopener">NSE Nifty Bank Index (NSEBANK INDEX)</a> at the close on 27 September.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bandhan-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26705:1" rel="noopener">Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN)</a> will be deleted from a global index at the close on 31 August, so real float will increase a lot over the next month.</li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to buy over 2 days of ADV in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canara-bank" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:543:1" rel="noopener">Canara Bank (CBK IN)</a> and sell 1 day of ADV in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bandhan-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26705:1" rel="noopener">Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN)</a>. </li>
</ul>


In line with our forecast, Canara Bank (CBK IN) will replace Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN) in the NSE Nifty Bank Index (NSEBANK INDEX) at the close on 27 September.

Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN) will be deleted from a global index at the close on 31 August, so real float will increase a lot over the next month.
Passive trackers will need to buy over 2 days of ADV in Canara Bank (CBK IN) and sell 1 day of ADV in Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN). 


NIFTY Bank Index Rebalance: Canara Bank IN; Bandhan Bank OUT

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Credit metrics continue to improve, with NPLs down to INR404bn in 1Q25 from INR458bn YoY and from INR407bn QoQ</li>
<li>Net loan growth continues to rise by about INR1tr each quarter, with net loans at INR9,465bn in 1Q25 up from INR8,554bn YoY and INR9,318bn QoQ</li>
<li>There are pressures on costs and margins, so the story is not all perfect, with NIM pressure potentially to reverse as LDR expands</li>
</ul>


Credit metrics continue to improve, with NPLs down to INR404bn in 1Q25 from INR458bn YoY and from INR407bn QoQ
Net loan growth continues to rise by about INR1tr each quarter, with net loans at INR9,465bn in 1Q25 up from INR8,554bn YoY and INR9,318bn QoQ
There are pressures on costs and margins, so the story is not all perfect, with NIM pressure potentially to reverse as LDR expands


Canara Bank - Bad Debt Charges Down in the Quarter, Net Loan Growth Nearly INR1tr YoY in 1Q25

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener"><strong>NIFTY Index</strong> (NIFTY INDEX)</a> and the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nse-nifty-bank-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26811:1" rel="noopener"><strong>NSE Nifty Bank Index</strong> (NSEBANK INDEX EQUITY)</a> reached all-time highs on 26 September 2024 but have since declined.</li>
<li>Most stocks in the Bank Index have fallen below their 200 and 50 day moving average,. Volatilities have gone up, but trade cheap when compared to historical levels.</li>
<li>Opportunities present themselves either in stocks that stayed resilient during the downturn (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/federal-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11784:1" rel="noopener">Federal Bank (FB IN)),</a>or fell and gained in implied volatility. A long-short strategy might also be considered.</li>
</ul>


The NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) and the NSE Nifty Bank Index (NSEBANK INDEX EQUITY) reached all-time highs on 26 September 2024 but have since declined.
Most stocks in the Bank Index have fallen below their 200 and 50 day moving average,. Volatilities have gone up, but trade cheap when compared to historical levels.
Opportunities present themselves either in stocks that stayed resilient during the downturn (Federal Bank (FB IN)),or fell and gained in implied volatility. A long-short strategy might also be considered.


EQD | Nifty Banks – Single Stock Options and Relative Value Opportunities

<ul>
<li>Canara Bank has seen stunning profit expansion over the past several years </li>
<li>Lower NPLs can drive lower credit costs to support profit expansion further</li>
<li>ROE moved from 11.7% to 17.3% over the past several years</li>
</ul>


Canara Bank has seen stunning profit expansion over the past several years 
Lower NPLs can drive lower credit costs to support profit expansion further
ROE moved from 11.7% to 17.3% over the past several years


Canara Bank - Radically Lower NPLs and Sharply Expanding Net Profit

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canara-bank" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:543:1" rel="noopener">Canara Bank (CBK IN)</a> could replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bandhan-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26705:1" rel="noopener">Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nse-nifty-bank-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26811:1" rel="noopener">NSE Nifty Bank Index (NSEBANK INDEX)</a> at the March rebalance.</li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to buy 2 days of ADV on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canara-bank" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:543:1" rel="noopener">Canara Bank (CBK IN)</a> while selling over 1 day of ADV on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bandhan-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26705:1" rel="noopener">Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN)</a>. </li>
<li>The impact is even higher where passives will need to buy nearly 6x delivery volumes in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canara-bank" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:543:1" rel="noopener">Canara Bank</a> and sell 3x delivery volumes in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bandhan-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26705:1" rel="noopener">Bandhan Bank Ltd</a>.</li>
</ul>



Canara Bank (CBK IN) could replace Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN) in the NSE Nifty Bank Index (NSEBANK INDEX) at the March rebalance.
Passive trackers will need to buy 2 days of ADV on Canara Bank (CBK IN) while selling over 1 day of ADV on Bandhan Bank Ltd (BANDHAN IN). 
The impact is even higher where passives will need to buy nearly 6x delivery volumes in Canara Bank and sell 3x delivery volumes in Bandhan Bank Ltd.


NIFTY Bank Index Rebalance Preview: Canara Bank Could Replace Bandhan Bank

India

Canara Bank Ltd. provides a full range of banking services throughout India. The Group's activities include retail banking, commercial and personal banking, investment management, treasury & NRI services, cash management and assorted ATM facilities.

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Canara Bank (CBK IN)

NIFTY Bank Index Rebalance: Canara Bank IN; Bandhan Bank OUT

Canara Bank will replace Bandhan Bank in the Nifty Bank Index in Sep. Bandhan is also being deleted from a global index on 31 August. Passives need...

Brian Freitas

Canara Bank - Bad Debt Charges Down in the Quarter, Net Loan Growth Nearly INR1tr YoY in 1Q25

Canara Bank continues to see improvements in credit metrics. Less focus on MSMEs and more on retail can support this. LDR contract QoQ may reverse...

Daniel Tabbush

EQD | Nifty Banks – Single Stock Options and Relative Value Opportunities

The NSE Nifty Bank Index hit a record high in September 2024 but has since dropped. Option opportunities are found in resilient or volatile bank...

Gaudenz Schneider

Canara Bank - Radically Lower NPLs and Sharply Expanding Net Profit

Radically lower NPLs and sharply higher net profit can continue with benign credit costs, especially as Loss Loans are down a lot. ROE and ROA are...

Daniel Tabbush

NIFTY Bank Index Rebalance Preview: Canara Bank Could Replace Bandhan Bank

Canara Bank is close to replacing Bandhan Bank in the NIFTY BANK Index in March. Passives will need to trade 5.7x delivery volume on CBK and sell...

Brian Freitas

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