Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In Q423, ZTO's parcel volumes grew by +32% Y/Y, faster than market growth</li>
<li>But weak pricing resulted in EPS growth of just +2% Y/Y in the period</li>
<li>In FY24, management expects parcel growth to roughly halve - AVOID</li>
</ul>


In Q423, ZTO's parcel volumes grew by +32% Y/Y, faster than market growth
But weak pricing resulted in EPS growth of just +2% Y/Y in the period
In FY24, management expects parcel growth to roughly halve - AVOID


ZTO Express Q423 Results & Guidance in One Simple Table | +32% Volume --> +2% EPS?! | AVOID

<ul>
<li>In Q423 JD Logistics booked 10% top-line growth &amp; solid margin improvement</li>
<li>We analyze the impacts of JD.com &amp; Deppon Logistics on JD Logistics' Q423</li>
<li>Given still-low profitability, JD Logistics does not appear cheap, in our view</li>
</ul>


In Q423 JD Logistics booked 10% top-line growth &amp; solid margin improvement
We analyze the impacts of JD.com &amp; Deppon Logistics on JD Logistics' Q423
Given still-low profitability, JD Logistics does not appear cheap, in our view


Analyzing the Roles Parent JD.com & Subsidiary Deppon Played in JD Logistics' Q423 Results

<ul>
<li>Industry ASP declined -15.5% Y/Y in January to just 8.36 CNY, a record low</li>
<li>Despite strong volume (+85% Y/Y) some firms have likely turned unprofitable</li>
<li>International parcel growth strong; SF still avoiding worst of domestic price wars</li>
</ul>


Industry ASP declined -15.5% Y/Y in January to just 8.36 CNY, a record low
Despite strong volume (+85% Y/Y) some firms have likely turned unprofitable
International parcel growth strong; SF still avoiding worst of domestic price wars


Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Industry ASP Fell to Record Low Last Month | (February 2024)

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>The effects of SHEIN's and Temu's growth on US retail are already well known</li>
<li>But recent data points show the companies impacting other industries, too</li>
<li>Through their dramatic growth the two companies are gaining influence in US </li>
</ul>


The effects of SHEIN's and Temu's growth on US retail are already well known
But recent data points show the companies impacting other industries, too
Through their dramatic growth the two companies are gaining influence in US 


Dramatic Growth of SHEIN & Temu Having Noticeable Impact On Segments Outside Of US Retail

<ul>
<li>December: strong volume growth, but worsening price declines for STO, Yunda</li>
<li>Recent trends in X-border parcel volume growth &amp; pricing moderated in December</li>
<li>In 2024, look for SF to continue its outpeformance; STO, Yunda should still lag</li>
</ul>


December: strong volume growth, but worsening price declines for STO, Yunda
Recent trends in X-border parcel volume growth &amp; pricing moderated in December
In 2024, look for SF to continue its outpeformance; STO, Yunda should still lag


Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Volumes Remain Firm | Domestic Pricing Worsens (January 2024)

Hong Kong

Cainiao Smart Logistics Network Ltd. operates as an investment company. The Company provides equity investments, investment management, and other services. Cainiao Smart Logistics Network is located in Hong Kong.

Cainiao Smart Logistics Network (1437124D HK)

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Cainiao Smart Logistics Network (1437124D HK)

ZTO Express Q423 Results & Guidance in One Simple Table | +32% Volume --> +2% EPS?! | AVOID

ZTO managed to convert +32% volume growth in Q423 into just +2% EPS growth. Looking at 2024, management expects volume growth to slow dramatically.

Tracking Traffic

Analyzing the Roles Parent JD.com & Subsidiary Deppon Played in JD Logistics' Q423 Results

JD Logistics reported +10% top-line growth in Q423, and strong improvements in margins. In this insight we look at the dynamics between JD...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Industry ASP Fell to Record Low Last Month | (February 2024)

More operating days in January 2024 lifted parcel volume growth, but industry ASP declined to the lowest level on record. We believe at current...

Tracking Traffic

Dramatic Growth of SHEIN & Temu Having Noticeable Impact On Segments Outside Of US Retail

Recent data points show SHEIN and Temu are beginning to have noticeable impacts on US industries other than retail, including domestic express...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Volumes Remain Firm | Domestic Pricing Worsens (January 2024)

Industry volume growth remains firm, but price pressure on domestic 'sort and transport' companies continued to increase in December. We expect SF...

Tracking Traffic

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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