Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Chinese parcel volume growth slowed in July (+22%) vs firmer pace in Q2 (+32%)</li>
<li>At company level, there are signs the steep price declines from H1 are moderating</li>
<li>If worst of price declines is in rearview mirror, beat down names are worth a look</li>
</ul>


Chinese parcel volume growth slowed in July (+22%) vs firmer pace in Q2 (+32%)
At company level, there are signs the steep price declines from H1 are moderating
If worst of price declines is in rearview mirror, beat down names are worth a look


Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | July Volume Growth Eased | Price Declines Moderating (August 2024)

<ul>
<li>Headline numbers for ZTO in Q224 were +10% Revenue, +12% EBITDA</li>
<li>But gross margin in core express segment fell, as did Operating Cash Flow</li>
<li>ZTO left guidance unchanged for FY24; we recommend investors AVOID it</li>
</ul>


Headline numbers for ZTO in Q224 were +10% Revenue, +12% EBITDA
But gross margin in core express segment fell, as did Operating Cash Flow
ZTO left guidance unchanged for FY24; we recommend investors AVOID it


ZTO Express Q224 Results: Slow Top-Line Growth | Margin Compression in Core Express Business | AVOID

<ul>
<li>Q224 parcel volume growth slowed dramatically in all markets versus Q124 pace</li>
<li>Share price has fallen by more than half compared to Q124 peak levels</li>
<li>HK$7.8 is our target, but slower growth, sub-par margins &amp; disclosure = AVOID</li>
</ul>


Q224 parcel volume growth slowed dramatically in all markets versus Q124 pace
Share price has fallen by more than half compared to Q124 peak levels
HK$7.8 is our target, but slower growth, sub-par margins &amp; disclosure = AVOID


J&T Global Express Q224 Operating Stats: Volume Growth Fell Vs Q124 | We Revisit Valuation | AVOID

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>EU, like the US, is considering lowering "<em>de minimis</em>" import threshold, soon</li>
<li>Lowering import value thresholds or raising reporting requirements could make SHEIN/Temu/AliExpress goods more expensive, and fulfillment more onerous</li>
<li>Threat of "<em>de minimis</em>" changes coming just as SHEIN reportedly seeks an IPO</li>
</ul>


EU, like the US, is considering lowering "de minimis" import threshold, soon
Lowering import value thresholds or raising reporting requirements could make SHEIN/Temu/AliExpress goods more expensive, and fulfillment more onerous
Threat of "de minimis" changes coming just as SHEIN reportedly seeks an IPO


SHEIN/Temu/AliExpress: As US Mulls Reforming "De Minimis" Rules, EU Could Take Similar Action

<ul>
<li>For first time since 2022, carriers' cargo revenue, yield, load factor all rising</li>
<li>Asia outbound, US inbound air cargo tons both improving in early 2024</li>
<li>SHEIN, Temu could account for 40%+ of US inbound air tons from CH, HK, TW</li>
</ul>


For first time since 2022, carriers' cargo revenue, yield, load factor all rising
Asia outbound, US inbound air cargo tons both improving in early 2024
SHEIN, Temu could account for 40%+ of US inbound air tons from CH, HK, TW


Growth of SHEIN, Temu Appears to Be Boosting Asia-US Air Cargo Volume & Pricing

Hong Kong

Cainiao Smart Logistics Network Ltd. operates as an investment company. The Company provides equity investments, investment management, and other services. Cainiao Smart Logistics Network is located in Hong Kong.

Cainiao Smart Logistics Network (1437124D HK)

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Cainiao Smart Logistics Network (1437124D HK)

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | July Volume Growth Eased | Price Declines Moderating (August 2024)

There are growing signs the worst of the steep unit price declines that have weighed down the Chinese express sector over the past year are now...

Tracking Traffic

ZTO Express Q224 Results: Slow Top-Line Growth | Margin Compression in Core Express Business | AVOID

ZTO's headline Q224 numbers look OK, but they don't paint an accurate picture of what's happening in the core express segment. We suggest investors...

Tracking Traffic

J&T Global Express Q224 Operating Stats: Volume Growth Fell Vs Q124 | We Revisit Valuation | AVOID

Y/Y parcel volume growth at J&T Global Express in Q224 fell sharply compared to Q124's rate of growth, and the slowdown hit all three of the...

Tracking Traffic

SHEIN/Temu/AliExpress: As US Mulls Reforming "De Minimis" Rules, EU Could Take Similar Action

It appears the EU has joined the US in preparing reforms to the "de minimis" rules that aid SHEIN and its peers by keeping direct-to-consumer...

Tracking Traffic

Growth of SHEIN, Temu Appears to Be Boosting Asia-US Air Cargo Volume & Pricing

There are signs that SHEIN and Temu are boosting Asia-to-US air cargo volume and pricing. We estimate the two platforms account for as much as 40%+...

Tracking Traffic

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)