Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There could be 25 inclusions, including many new listings, to the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) in September. Another 6 stocks are close adds on liquidity and market cap.</li>
<li>We see 19 potential deletes and 2 close deletes on market cap, 5 potential deletes on prolonged trading suspension, and 2 close deletes on liquidity.</li>
<li>There are 8 potential deletions where holdings via Stock Connect are more than 20% of shares outstanding. There could be some unwinding of positions over the next couple of months.</li>
</ul>


There could be 25 inclusions, including many new listings, to the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) in September. Another 6 stocks are close adds on liquidity and market cap.
We see 19 potential deletes and 2 close deletes on market cap, 5 potential deletes on prolonged trading suspension, and 2 close deletes on liquidity.
There are 8 potential deletions where holdings via Stock Connect are more than 20% of shares outstanding. There could be some unwinding of positions over the next couple of months.


HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: The Final List for September

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

Cafe De Coral Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We have updated with the management after its FY23 results last week and believe recovery is here but the pace could be slightly slower than expected (as SSSG in FY23 was just 1-2%, missed CMBI est. of 4%).</li><li>While the management is still keeping their 3-year target (HSD pre-tax margin by FY25E), we are more prudent than them.</li><li>We maintain BUY but cut TP to HK$ 12.32, just because of the turnaround and relatively high dividend yield of 5%. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

We have updated with the management after its FY23 results last week and believe recovery is here but the pace could be slightly slower than expected (as SSSG in FY23 was just 1-2%, missed CMBI est. of 4%).While the management is still keeping their 3-year target (HSD pre-tax margin by FY25E), we are more prudent than them.We maintain BUY but cut TP to HK$ 12.32, just because of the turnaround and relatively high dividend yield of 5%. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Cafe De Coral (341 HK) – Turnaround Is Here but Weaker than Expected

<ul>
<li>The changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI2 INDEX</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kosdaq-150-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31077:1" rel="noopener">KOSDAQ150 Index</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">CSI300 Index</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">STAR50 INDEX</a> and a bunch of other onshore China indices were implemented last week.</li>
<li>The coming week has a lot of rebalance implementations on Friday with the S&amp;P/ASX family and the MVIS family, among others.</li>
<li>AUM for the Yuanta/P-shares Taiwan Top 50 ETF (0050 TT) has continued to increase with big inflows in the last week.</li>
</ul>


The changes for the KOSPI2 INDEX, KOSDAQ150 Index, CSI300 Index, STAR50 INDEX and a bunch of other onshore China indices were implemented last week.
The coming week has a lot of rebalance implementations on Friday with the S&amp;P/ASX family and the MVIS family, among others.
AUM for the Yuanta/P-shares Taiwan Top 50 ETF (0050 TT) has continued to increase with big inflows in the last week.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCI, GDXJ, KRX New Deal, AMFI, Amman Mineral, Infratil

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fenbi-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36640:1" rel="noopener">Fenbi Ltd (2469 HK)</a> was added to the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) at the close Friday and will be added to Southbound Stock Connect from open of trading today.</li>
<li>We see 22 potential adds, 19 potential deletes, couple of close deletes, 5 deletes on prolonged suspension and 4 close liquidity deletes for the HSCI in September.</li>
<li>There are 11 potential deletions where holdings via Stock Connect are more than 20% of shares outstanding. There could be some unwinding of positions over the next couple of months.</li>
</ul>



Fenbi Ltd (2469 HK) was added to the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) at the close Friday and will be added to Southbound Stock Connect from open of trading today.
We see 22 potential adds, 19 potential deletes, couple of close deletes, 5 deletes on prolonged suspension and 4 close liquidity deletes for the HSCI in September.
There are 11 potential deletions where holdings via Stock Connect are more than 20% of shares outstanding. There could be some unwinding of positions over the next couple of months.


HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in September

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Clarence Chu

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Guoquan Food (Shanghai) / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guoquan-food-shanghai" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36899:1" rel="noopener">Guoquan Food (Shanghai) (1786512D CH)</a> is looking to raise about US$500m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.</li>
<li>Guoquan Food (Shanghai) is a home meal solutions provider in China.</li>
<li>Offering a wide variety of home meal solutions products under its Guoquan Shihui (鍋圈食匯) brand, the firm had a total of 755 SKUs as of Dec 22. </li>
</ul>



Guoquan Food (Shanghai) (1786512D CH) is looking to raise about US$500m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
Guoquan Food (Shanghai) is a home meal solutions provider in China.
Offering a wide variety of home meal solutions products under its Guoquan Shihui (鍋圈食匯) brand, the firm had a total of 755 SKUs as of Dec 22. 


Guoquan Food Pre-IPO - Decent Track Record, Although Newfound Profits Could Be Unsustainable

Hong Kong

Fosun Tourism Group operates as a leisure focused integrated tourism group. The Company provides resorts management, tourism destinations development, and other related services. Fosun Tourism Group offers its services worldwide.

China Travel International Investment Hong Kong Limited, through its subsidiaries, operates tourist attractions, golf clubs, hotels, and other travel related activities.  The Company also provides passenger transportation as well as freight forwarding and cargo services.

China Travel International Investment Hong Kong (308 HK)

China Travel International Investment Hong Kong

Regal Hotels International Holdings Limited owns and operates hotels.  The Company also manages and invests in real estate properties as well as invests in and trades financial instruments and marketable securities.  In addition, Regal hotel operates brewery, operates restaurants, and provides travel and florist and wedding services.

Miramar Hotel and Investment Company Limited, through its subsidiaries, invests in, develops, and sells properties. The Company also owns and manages hotels, operates food and beverage business, and provides travel services.

Melco International Development Limited, through its subsidiaries, operates investment banking, financial services, technology, fine-dining, leisure and tourism, property investment, and investment businesses. The Company carries on financial service businesses under the VC CFN and VC CEF brand names.  Melco also customizes and sells trading and back office systems under the iAsia name.

Sino Hotels Holdings Limited, through its subsidiaries, operates hotels and clubs.  The Company also invests in securities and provides hotel management services.

China Star Entertainment Limited, through its subsidiaries, principally engaged in the production and distribution of films and television drama series that are based in Chinese dialect. The Company also invests the gaming promotion business, property and hotel investments.

Fairwood Holdings Limited, through its subsidiaries, operates a chain of fast food restaurants.  The Company also invests in properties.

Ajisen (China) Holdings Limited operates a chain of casual restaurants that offers Japanese ramen and Japanese-style dishes in Hong Kong and People's Republic of China.

China Energy Development Holdings Limited, through its subsidiaries, is engaged in the sale of food and beverages in Hong Kong and exploration and production of natural gas in the People's Republic of China (PRC).

China Energy Development Holdings Ltd (228 HK)

LiJiang YuLong Tourism Co., Ltd. provides travel services in Lijiang, Yunnan. The Company provides cableway transportation, bus transportation, food and beverages services, and other related tourism services.

Ruth's Hospitality Group Inc. operates a chain of upscale steak houses. The Company's restaurants are located throughout the United States and in several international locations.

ARCLAND SERVICE CO., LTD. operates a restaurant chain based in Tokyo. The Company mainly serves pork cutlets and barbecue.

HIDAY HIDAKA Corp. operates a chain of Oriental noodle and Chinese restaurants mainly in Saitama Prefecture.  The Company produces noodles, soup, and dumplings at its own factory.

DOUTOR NICHIRES Holdings Co., Ltd is establish through merger of DOUTOR COFFEE and NIPPON RESTAURANT SYSTEM.  The Company operates a coffee shop and restaurant chain. DOUTOR NICHIRES manages all business operations, from producing and procuring coffee beans to roasting, wholesaling, and retailing.

Collins Foods Ltd. operates fast-food restaurants.  The Company operates chains of steak and chicken restaurants in Australia.

Biglari Holdings Inc. operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, invests in food and insurance companies. Biglari Holdings serves clients in the State of Texas.

Hana Tour Service Inc. wholesales a variety of travel related services.  The Company provides outbound, inbound and domestic travel packages and cooperates with credit card companies and Internet shopping malls to market its services. Hana Tour Service also works as general sales agency (GSA) of overseas cruise and rail passes.

Chuy's Holdings Inc. is a full-service restaurant concept offering a distinct menu of authentic Mexican food.  The Company operates chains throughout Texas, Alabama, Indiana, Kentucky, and Tennessee.

MOS Food Services Inc operates hamburger chain stores.  The Company started out by selling Teriyaki Hamburgers.  The Company also sells rice burgers, hot dogs, and fried chicken.  Mos Food has a branch store in Hawaii, Taiwan, and Singapore.

Cafe De Coral Holdings Limited, through its subsidiaries, operates quick service restaurants, fast casual dining, institutional catering and specialty restaurant chains, and food manufacturing business.

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Cafe De Coral Holdings (341 HK)

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: The Final List for September

There could be nearly 50 adds/deletes for the HSCI in September. That will trigger changes to the Southbound Stock Connect list and increase flows...

Brian Freitas

Cafe De Coral (341 HK) – Turnaround Is Here but Weaker than Expected

While the management is still keeping their 3-year target (HSD pre-tax margin by FY25E), we are more prudent than them. We maintain BUY but cut TP...

CMB International

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCI, GDXJ, KRX New Deal, AMFI, Amman Mineral, Infratil

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in September

A month out from review cutoff, there are 22 potential adds and 19 potential deletes for the HSCI in Sep. Most stocks will then be added to or...

Brian Freitas

Guoquan Food Pre-IPO - Decent Track Record, Although Newfound Profits Could Be Unsustainable

Guoquan Food (Shanghai) (1786512D CH) is looking to raise about US$500m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. Guoquan Food (Shanghai) is a home meal...

Clarence Chu

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