Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Happy Sunday and welcome to a short and sweet version of our flagship editorial!</li><li>Liquidity conditions have improved markedly over the past couple of months, and we are about to enter a QE-like liquidity environment unless trends reverse soon, which they are unlikely to.</li><li>Liquidity has been improving at a $200bn a month pace since early November due to a pamphlet of tricks from BOTH the Fed and the US Treasury, and through the past weeks another sneaky “liquidity adding” factor has popped up! This is of major relevance to the overall risk sentiment.</li></ul>

Happy Sunday and welcome to a short and sweet version of our flagship editorial!Liquidity conditions have improved markedly over the past couple of months, and we are about to enter a QE-like liquidity environment unless trends reverse soon, which they are unlikely to.Liquidity has been improving at a $200bn a month pace since early November due to a pamphlet of tricks from BOTH the Fed and the US Treasury, and through the past weeks another sneaky “liquidity adding” factor has popped up! This is of major relevance to the overall risk sentiment.

Steno Signals #79 – A Christmas present full of USD Liquidity from Powell and Yellen!

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

<ul><li>We’ll start today’s 5 things with a look at the central bank outlook for in 2024, then we’ll address the troubles for OPEC.</li><li>We move over to talk about China and afterwards Ukraine for some geopolitics.</li><li>Finally, we’ll end this year’s last 5 things with a crypto outlook.</li></ul>

We’ll start today’s 5 things with a look at the central bank outlook for in 2024, then we’ll address the troubles for OPEC.We move over to talk about China and afterwards Ukraine for some geopolitics.Finally, we’ll end this year’s last 5 things with a crypto outlook.

Elias Lisberg Glistrup

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>With the turn of October, it’s time for our monthly evaluation of both the present and coming month’s macroeconomic conditions, in which we weigh risks against rewards.</li><li>In order to do so, we employ both our Macro Regime Indicator framework and the interactive Structural Asset Allocation Model.</li><li>In combination, these tools provide an empirically rooted portfolio allocation, given the identified macro conditions and drivers in financial markets.</li></ul>

With the turn of October, it’s time for our monthly evaluation of both the present and coming month’s macroeconomic conditions, in which we weigh risks against rewards.In order to do so, we employ both our Macro Regime Indicator framework and the interactive Structural Asset Allocation Model.In combination, these tools provide an empirically rooted portfolio allocation, given the identified macro conditions and drivers in financial markets.

Macro Regime Indicator: Heavy Long in Cyclical FX

Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

<ul><li>Another week of blood and drama. But fear not, we’re here to wrap up the week with our usual watch series, where we’ll gauge the current market sentiment using the latest positioning data.</li><li>First things first, let’s take a quick peek at the chart of the week down below. In yesterday’s Portfolio Watch, we spilled the beans about some big changes we’re planning for our portfolio.</li><li>One of the main reasons we’re making these moves now is because of what we see in this chart: The S&amp;P 500 just dipped below its 200-day moving average support line, waving a red flag that suggests we might be in for a bumpy ride in the coming weeks</li></ul>

Another week of blood and drama. But fear not, we’re here to wrap up the week with our usual watch series, where we’ll gauge the current market sentiment using the latest positioning data.First things first, let’s take a quick peek at the chart of the week down below. In yesterday’s Portfolio Watch, we spilled the beans about some big changes we’re planning for our portfolio.One of the main reasons we’re making these moves now is because of what we see in this chart: The S&amp;P 500 just dipped below its 200-day moving average support line, waving a red flag that suggests we might be in for a bumpy ride in the coming weeks

Positioning Watch: Shifting Gears without Panic

<ul>
<li>Welcome back to our weekly positioning watch, where we run through interest positioning insights/data collected throughout the week.</li>
<li>It’s safe to say that energy is all everyone is talking about with the oil rally still going strong, but the trade might have more to give as positioning is not as exhausted as some people might tell you.</li>
<li>When you take into account the number of traders in the CFTC report, oil positioning is barely anything compared to history.</li>
</ul>


Welcome back to our weekly positioning watch, where we run through interest positioning insights/data collected throughout the week.
It’s safe to say that energy is all everyone is talking about with the oil rally still going strong, but the trade might have more to give as positioning is not as exhausted as some people might tell you.
When you take into account the number of traders in the CFTC report, oil positioning is barely anything compared to history.


Positioning Watch – Oil Longs Are Not as Big as You Think

Canada

The Canadian dollar is the official currency of Canada. 

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CAD (USDCAD CURNCY)

Steno Signals #79 – A Christmas present full of USD Liquidity from Powell and Yellen!

Happy Sunday and welcome to a short and sweet version of our flagship editorial!We want to take the opportunity to thank you all for your support...

Steno Research

Five Things We Watch For In 2024

The thing to watch is probably employment numbers and once the labor markets start turning bad, expect CBs to cut in a hurry (especially if it is...

Steno Research

Macro Regime Indicator: Heavy Long in Cyclical FX

We anticipate consistent QT in both USDs and EURs in the forthcoming month. On a 3-month time frame, and given the assumed conditions, our model...

Steno Research

Positioning Watch: Shifting Gears without Panic

I sent Congress an urgent budget request to fund America’s national security needs to support our critical partners, including Israel and...

Steno Research

Positioning Watch – Oil Longs Are Not as Big as You Think

Welcome back to our weekly positioning watch, where we run through interest positioning insights/data collected throughout the week.

Steno Research

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