Macroeconomic and Investing, The Macro Compass

Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

Macroeconomic and Investing

The Macro Compass

Actionable investment ideas and unique global macro insights. From the desk of a former Head of $20 bn Investment Portfolio straight to your inbox.

Actionable Investment Ideas

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The first 5 weeks of the year have seen international equities outperforming the S&amp;P 500: European and Chinese stocks have rallied harder than US stock indexes, and certain emerging markets like Chile or Poland are doing even better.</li><li>My main thesis for the first half of the year remains to be positioned with an ‘’International Risk Parity’’ portfolio: long US bonds, and long stocks around the world.</li><li>The chart above shows that the US growth exceptionalism might be over. The Aggregate Income Growth series is a great proxy for nominal growth in real time: it includes private sector job creation, workweek hours, and wage growth – effectively reflecting the growth rate of nominal income US workers are bringing home.</li></ul>

The first 5 weeks of the year have seen international equities outperforming the S&amp;P 500: European and Chinese stocks have rallied harder than US stock indexes, and certain emerging markets like Chile or Poland are doing even better.My main thesis for the first half of the year remains to be positioned with an ‘’International Risk Parity’’ portfolio: long US bonds, and long stocks around the world.The chart above shows that the US growth exceptionalism might be over. The Aggregate Income Growth series is a great proxy for nominal growth in real time: it includes private sector job creation, workweek hours, and wage growth – effectively reflecting the growth rate of nominal income US workers are bringing home.

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch.</li><li>The debates about whether the US is heading for a recession are still touring the charts, as the labor market and other economic data soften back towards pre-pandemic levels.</li><li>However, while some might be uncomfortable watching the US economy slow more than anticipated, the lack of ringing alarm bells and Powell’s recent victory lap on inflation have greenlighted markets to price in a soft landing as a 95-99% probability event by now when looking across positioning data.</li></ul>

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch.The debates about whether the US is heading for a recession are still touring the charts, as the labor market and other economic data soften back towards pre-pandemic levels.However, while some might be uncomfortable watching the US economy slow more than anticipated, the lack of ringing alarm bells and Powell’s recent victory lap on inflation have greenlighted markets to price in a soft landing as a 95-99% probability event by now when looking across positioning data.

Positioning Watch – The Soft Landing Is Moving Towards a Recovery Trade

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since early November 2023 we have been expecting global equities (MSCI ACWI) to stage a year-end rally that would continue into the early part of 2024.</li>
<li>As we progress through the “early part” of 2024, more global indexes and Sectors are breaking out and starting to participate in the upside. This is classic bull market behavior.</li>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish; continue to ride this trend higher, and treat pullbacks as buying opportunities. Actionable Themes: Hong Kong/China, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Energy/Coal, and Polish Banks</li>
</ul>


Since early November 2023 we have been expecting global equities (MSCI ACWI) to stage a year-end rally that would continue into the early part of 2024.
As we progress through the “early part” of 2024, more global indexes and Sectors are breaking out and starting to participate in the upside. This is classic bull market behavior.
Our outlook remains bullish; continue to ride this trend higher, and treat pullbacks as buying opportunities. Actionable Themes: Hong Kong/China, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Energy/Coal, and Polish Banks


Hong Kong/China Finally Bottoming?; Bullish Outlook Intact; DXY Rolling Over; Buys in Discretionary

<ul><li>Welcome to this extremely table- and chart-heavy EUR-flation update.</li><li>Based on extensive public demand, we have updated our inflation models for all of the big four in the Euro zone and we reach the conclusion that the ECB is off by &gt;1%-point and potentially more by March-2024.</li><li>After having updated our models, we see March HICP printing at 1.84% versus ECB at 2.9% (Q1-average) and a market pricing of 2.25% (or thereabout), which basically leaves inflation below target before the end of the quarter.</li></ul>

Welcome to this extremely table- and chart-heavy EUR-flation update.Based on extensive public demand, we have updated our inflation models for all of the big four in the Euro zone and we reach the conclusion that the ECB is off by &gt;1%-point and potentially more by March-2024.After having updated our models, we see March HICP printing at 1.84% versus ECB at 2.9% (Q1-average) and a market pricing of 2.25% (or thereabout), which basically leaves inflation below target before the end of the quarter.

EUR-Flation Watch: Why the ECB Is off by Miles in the Q1 Forecast

Political Analyst | Steno Research, Steno Research

Anne Sandager

Political Analyst | Steno Research

<ul>
<li>Amidst the prospect of a soft landing and lower interest rates, the European Council unanimously voted in favor of reinstating fiscal safeguards for EU member states after a 4-year pause during the pandemic.</li>
<li>The Stability and Growth Pact – the formal name of the fiscal rulebook – gives the EU the ability to impose monetary fines on member states with debt-to-GDP ratios above 60% and/or budget deficits exceeding -3%.</li>
<li>The pact was temporarily waived to allow states to undertake counter-cyclical investments and debt intake during the pandemic and subsequent energy crisis.</li>
</ul>


Amidst the prospect of a soft landing and lower interest rates, the European Council unanimously voted in favor of reinstating fiscal safeguards for EU member states after a 4-year pause during the pandemic.
The Stability and Growth Pact – the formal name of the fiscal rulebook – gives the EU the ability to impose monetary fines on member states with debt-to-GDP ratios above 60% and/or budget deficits exceeding -3%.
The pact was temporarily waived to allow states to undertake counter-cyclical investments and debt intake during the pandemic and subsequent energy crisis.


NEW EU FISCAL RULES – Victory for the Expansionists or the Prudentials?

France

The CAC 40, the most widely-used indicator of the Paris market, reflects the performance of the 40 largest equities listed in France, measured by free-float market-capitalization and liquidity. 

CAC 40 (CAC INDEX)

Here Are My Top Macro Ideas

The first 5 weeks of the year have seen international equities outperforming the S&P 500: European and Chinese stocks have rallied harder than US...

Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

Positioning Watch – The Soft Landing Is Moving Towards a Recovery Trade

Overall positioning and sentiment indicators are starting to diverge, though. Most indicators show continued support for risk assets in H2.

Steno Research

Hong Kong/China Finally Bottoming?; Bullish Outlook Intact; DXY Rolling Over; Buys in Discretionary

Hong Kong/China Finally Bottoming?; Bullish Overall Outlook Intact; $DXY Rolling Over; Actionable Themes: Hong Kong/China, Consumer Discretionary,...

Vermilion Research

EUR-Flation Watch: Why the ECB Is off by Miles in the Q1 Forecast

After having updated our models, we see March HICP printing at 1.84% versus ECB at 2.9% (Q1-average) and a market pricing of 2.25% (or thereabout)

Steno Research

NEW EU FISCAL RULES – Victory for the Expansionists or the Prudentials?

Amidst the prospect of a soft landing and lower interest rates, the European Council unanimously voted in favor of reinstating fiscal safeguards...

Steno Research