Macroeconomic and Investing, The Macro Compass

Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

Macroeconomic and Investing

The Macro Compass

Actionable investment ideas and unique global macro insights. From the desk of a former Head of $20 bn Investment Portfolio straight to your inbox.

Actionable Investment Ideas

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The first 5 weeks of the year have seen international equities outperforming the S&amp;P 500: European and Chinese stocks have rallied harder than US stock indexes, and certain emerging markets like Chile or Poland are doing even better.</li><li>My main thesis for the first half of the year remains to be positioned with an ‘’International Risk Parity’’ portfolio: long US bonds, and long stocks around the world.</li><li>The chart above shows that the US growth exceptionalism might be over. The Aggregate Income Growth series is a great proxy for nominal growth in real time: it includes private sector job creation, workweek hours, and wage growth – effectively reflecting the growth rate of nominal income US workers are bringing home.</li></ul>

The first 5 weeks of the year have seen international equities outperforming the S&amp;P 500: European and Chinese stocks have rallied harder than US stock indexes, and certain emerging markets like Chile or Poland are doing even better.My main thesis for the first half of the year remains to be positioned with an ‘’International Risk Parity’’ portfolio: long US bonds, and long stocks around the world.The chart above shows that the US growth exceptionalism might be over. The Aggregate Income Growth series is a great proxy for nominal growth in real time: it includes private sector job creation, workweek hours, and wage growth – effectively reflecting the growth rate of nominal income US workers are bringing home.

House of Market Insights, Market Radar

Market Radar

House of Market Insights

Quick market updates and lot of ideas for your investments from a multi-asset portfolio manager working for a family office.

Quick Market Updates

<ul><li>After four difficult months for markets, May is not going very well too. At least for equity investors.</li><li>On Friday, the S&amp;P 500 has been even in bear market for a couple of hours, before to jump in the last final hour.</li><li>What is scaring investors in such a big way? There are several factors, but the newest one is the fear of an incoming global “recession”, as you can even see from the monthly Fund Manager Survey from BofA.</li></ul>

After four difficult months for markets, May is not going very well too. At least for equity investors.On Friday, the S&amp;P 500 has been even in bear market for a couple of hours, before to jump in the last final hour.What is scaring investors in such a big way? There are several factors, but the newest one is the fear of an incoming global “recession”, as you can even see from the monthly Fund Manager Survey from BofA.

Investors fearful of a possible recession

France

The CAC 40, the most widely-used indicator of the Paris market, reflects the performance of the 40 largest equities listed in France, measured by free-float market-capitalization and liquidity. 

CAC 40 (CAC INDEX)

Here Are My Top Macro Ideas

The first 5 weeks of the year have seen international equities outperforming the S&P 500: European and Chinese stocks have rallied harder than US...

Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

Investors fearful of a possible recession

What is scaring investors in such a big way? There are several factors, but the newest one is the fear of an incoming global “recession”

Market Radar